June 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Currently firmly in the 3-6” of rain needed to get out of the drought region wide. The region will be losing another 1.70” to through evapotranspiration over the next 7 days, so it’s going to take multiple rain events to get out of the drought across the Great Lakes/ OV

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and feels wonderful outside. Les yesterday we just had those clouds early and with the haze from fires temps got a late start in our area compared to folks north of here. I agree the haze should knock down temps a degree or two today and Tuesday. Middle and end of week is almost perfect with warm days and cool nights.

Concerning the dry conditions and no doubt it has been a dry late spring and normally this really concerns me for the summer. The one item is the humidity and that has been missing. Normally when you have these dry spells in late May and June the humidity is still there to a certain extent but you just miss out on the rainfall. This year seeing dew points mainly in the 50's and some days lower has helped in keeping much of the vegetation in decent shape because when we don't have the normal humidity and less moisture is taken from the ground. Sure the grass will start to brown some but a good rain will bring that back but the trees and shrubs seems to be just fine.

No doubt this is a classic El Nino and much of the time we don't see this develop as quickly as this one and normally its later in the summer and fall when we see the El Nino gain strength.

Love the maps Bgoney and sure we need some rainfall to help out and this short term drought and earlier in the season than normal. By the weekend and no rain has fell or none expected and I will do a 2 day water to the yard and the base of the house which is also important. Leaving next Wednesday for the last trip to SC but don't want to get to far behind on the water parade especially if we start to see higher temps and more humidity.

[tron777]

I hope we aren't going to be dependent on the tropics for moisture this summer. With an El Nino, that can sometimes be a problem with regards to getting a lot of development. A plus are that the SST's are very warm on the Atlantic side, but the upper level winds as most of you know, are the most important factor with getting convection to develop into something tropically.

For now... whatcha see is whatcha get until Sunday when a halfway decent chance for rain looks to occur with a strong frontal boundary dropping in from the north. The backdoor front on Tues is like the one we had on Sat, very little moisture to work with.

[MVWxObserver]

Dews are in the 40s right now and we may struggle to get much past 80 again today. Models are running a bit warm thanks to the smoke from the Canadian wild fires IMO. Small shot of rain tomorrow from a back door front. Best chance for everyone continues to be Sunday.

Last night I heard on the WHIO7 wx segment via met Nick Dunn that the smoke from those fires could make for some spectacular sunsets.

[tron777]

Mid to upper 70s across the region at the lunch hour. Party cloudy skies with some haze thanks to the wildfire smoke from Canada. We'll see it again tomorrow then clear skies by Wed behind Tuesday's backdoor front.

[Bgoney]

On the way to the top ranking for many areas

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[tpweather]

On the way to the top ranking for many areas



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Great Map and it shows so many things that could mean a 2nd half cooler summer. To have it this dry in May and early June is unusual to say the least but like I mentioned without the higher dew points the vegetation is not quite as bad with that kind of dryness. If we get into later June and July and the rain stays away sooner or later that humidity will come back and then things really dry up in a hurry. The one thing I noticed though is the dryness on the west coast and that is why we may see the heat head towards that area in later July and August which would more and likely give us a somewhat cooler pattern. Sometimes a hot summer is fools gold and we can have days in the 90's but if we have dew points in the 50's where temps in the upper 80's and dew points in the 70's makes it miserable. With the above normal rainfall in the eastern mountains of the Rockies this has been sort of a good thing and has kept any heat wave from starting in the southwest or really anywhere in the south. I do expect the heat will build in Texas by the end of the month but getting this far with very little heat is a plus. I know in SC it just keeps raining any nearly 10 inches above normal in Greenville but even with the above normal rainfall the humidity has been in check which is somewhat a shock but again the heaviest rains occurred earlier in the year.

[tron777]

80 so far here today, CVG 79. Should make the low to mid 80s tomorrow then back into the 70s for Wed and Thurs. 80ish for Fri and in the 80s this weekend. Behind the next front, we are back into the 70s again to kick off next week. Rain chances continue to look small. Tues or Wed. Then with the next front on Sunday. I don't see any 90s for the next 7-10 days.

[Bgoney]

On the way to the top ranking for many areas



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Great Map and it shows so many things that could mean a 2nd half cooler summer. To have it this dry in May and early June is unusual to say the least but like I mentioned without the higher dew points the vegetation is not quite as bad with that kind of dryness. If we get into later June and July and the rain stays away sooner or later that humidity will come back and then things really dry up in a hurry. The one thing I noticed though is the dryness on the west coast and that is why we may see the heat head towards that area in later July and August which would more and likely give us a somewhat cooler pattern. Sometimes a hot summer is fools gold and we can have days in the 90's but if we have dew points in the 50's where temps in the upper 80's and dew points in the 70's makes it miserable. With the above normal rainfall in the eastern mountains of the Rockies this has been sort of a good thing and has kept any heat wave from starting in the southwest or really anywhere in the south. I do expect the heat will build in Texas by the end of the month but getting this far with very little heat is a plus. I know in SC it just keeps raining any nearly 10 inches above normal in Greenville but even with the above normal rainfall the humidity has been in check which is somewhat a shock but again the heaviest rains occurred earlier in the year.

Hey Tim nice post but I disagree with the humidity part . You get much more evaporation from the ground and through the leaves of plants with the lower humidity’s and dew points than with higher at the same temps ,so the drought conditions worsen quicker . It’s good for us but not so much for plant life when you’re in a drought . The slightly below normal temps are keeping crops from having heat stress so atm they look ok, but will soon go away too if we don’t see a pattern change by mid month

[tron777]

12Z GFS in the fantasy range, which is mid month and beyond, tries to get a little more active, but still most of these fronts are dropping in from the NW so unless they are slow movers, they won't scoop up a ton of moisture from the Gulf. Euro stops at June 15th and it has less then 0.20" for the entire 10 day period.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 81, DAY 80 and CMH 78 on Mon.

[airwolf76]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

[tron777]

53 IMBY this morning. We should hit the mid 80s today ahead of our next backdoor front. A 30% chance for rain tonight thru early tomorrow. Then we'll try again albeit a 50/50 chance by Sunday.

[tpweather]

On the way to the top ranking for many areas



IMG_0343.png

Great Map and it shows so many things that could mean a 2nd half cooler summer. To have it this dry in May and early June is unusual to say the least but like I mentioned without the higher dew points the vegetation is not quite as bad with that kind of dryness. If we get into later June and July and the rain stays away sooner or later that humidity will come back and then things really dry up in a hurry. The one thing I noticed though is the dryness on the west coast and that is why we may see the heat head towards that area in later July and August which would more and likely give us a somewhat cooler pattern. Sometimes a hot summer is fools gold and we can have days in the 90's but if we have dew points in the 50's where temps in the upper 80's and dew points in the 70's makes it miserable. With the above normal rainfall in the eastern mountains of the Rockies this has been sort of a good thing and has kept any heat wave from starting in the southwest or really anywhere in the south. I do expect the heat will build in Texas by the end of the month but getting this far with very little heat is a plus. I know in SC it just keeps raining any nearly 10 inches above normal in Greenville but even with the above normal rainfall the humidity has been in check which is somewhat a shock but again the heaviest rains occurred earlier in the year.

Hey Tim nice post but I disagree with the humidity part . You get much more evaporation from the ground and through the leaves of plants with the lower humidity’s and dew points than with higher at the same temps ,so the drought conditions worsen quicker . It’s good for us but not so much for plant life when you’re in a drought . The slightly below normal temps are keeping crops from having heat stress so atm they look ok, but will soon go away too if we don’t see a pattern change by mid month

Hey Bgoney, the more I thought about it and you correct about humidity part. My only other thought on this concerning vegetation is wherever you live the vegetation itself adapts to the weather overtime. Again for us long term droughts have not been a problem since I have been alive and sure it has happened in the past but only a year or two where it would be considered enough to call it a longer term drought. The climate in southern California is different as they go years with a smaller amount of rainfall and then can have years where it swings the other way with tons of rainfall. Of course folks want to call it a drought in those years with little rainfall but really its just the climate out there and folks were flocking there starting really in the 1920's but that continue for many decades and again the weather is nice most of the year but more people in a place that does not get a ton rainfall can cause water shortages especially in years where snow in the mountains is less.

[tpweather]

53 IMBY this morning. We should hit the mid 80s today ahead of our next backdoor front. A 30% chance for rain tonight thru early tomorrow. Then we'll try again albeit a 50/50 chance by Sunday.

Good Morning Les and made it to 51 at my house this morning. Seldom do these back door fronts bring us a nice rainfall. Timing of the front is also key and folks that can stay near that front for the longest period has the best chance of getting anything over 1/10 of rainfall. That area looks to be south and west of here as the front moves northeast to southwest. So those places may get 1/4 of an inch but again not widespread but at least there is a little more connection to the GOM but still limited and hopefully we can get that to change over the next few weeks which means we need a southeast ridge to form and that has been a problem this spring and I wish we had that problem in the winter lol.

[snowbo]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

Spent last week fishing near Hornepayne, Ontario. There's only 1 road that goes to Hornepayne and it was closed at first due to visibility issues and then as the fire jumped the road. Luckily, the road was reopened on Sunday for us to leave. It was quite a charred mess as we drove through the fire's path with a couple of power poles still burning.

[tron777]

53 IMBY this morning. We should hit the mid 80s today ahead of our next backdoor front. A 30% chance for rain tonight thru early tomorrow. Then we'll try again albeit a 50/50 chance by Sunday.

Good Morning Les and made it to 51 at my house this morning. Seldom do these back door fronts bring us a nice rainfall. Timing of the front is also key and folks that can stay near that front for the longest period has the best chance of getting anything over 1/10 of rainfall. That area looks to be south and west of here as the front moves northeast to southwest. So those places may get 1/4 of an inch but again not widespread but at least there is a little more connection to the GOM but still limited and hopefully we can get that to change over the next few weeks which means we need a southeast ridge to form and that has been a problem this spring and I wish we had that problem in the winter lol.

Agreed Tim. If we can get another tenth down our way, I'd call it a win. Definitely seeing the higher totals down towards LOU.

[tron777]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

Spent last week fishing near Hornepayne, Ontario. There's only 1 road that goes to Hornepayne and it was closed at first due to visibility issues and then as the fire jumped the road. Luckily, the road was reopened on Sunday for us to leave. It was quite a charred mess as we drove through the fire's path with a couple of power poles still burning.

Oh wow! Hopefully the smell of the smoke and vis issues didn't ruin your trip, unless you fished N of the fire, and only had to deal with it going home.

EDIT: I had to see where Hornepayne was on a map. You're even more north then where our family used to do fishing near Dubreuilville on Lake Wabatongushi.

https://lochisland.com/ontario-fishing/ ... ushi-lake/

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

Spent last week fishing near Hornepayne, Ontario. There's only 1 road that goes to Hornepayne and it was closed at first due to visibility issues and then as the fire jumped the road. Luckily, the road was reopened on Sunday for us to leave. It was quite a charred mess as we drove through the fire's path with a couple of power poles still burning.

Oh wow! Hopefully the smell of the smoke and vis issues didn't ruin your trip, unless you fished N of the fire, and only had to deal with it going home.

EDIT: I had to see where Hornepayne was on a map. You're even more north then where our family used to do fishing near Dubreuilville on Lake Wabatongushi.

https://lochisland.com/ontario-fishing/ ... ushi-lake/

Interesting names Bro as Hornepayne was renamed in 1920 after a British financier Robert Horne-Payne, Dubreuil which is French and Wabatongushi an Indian tribe name.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

Spent last week fishing near Hornepayne, Ontario. There's only 1 road that goes to Hornepayne and it was closed at first due to visibility issues and then as the fire jumped the road. Luckily, the road was reopened on Sunday for us to leave. It was quite a charred mess as we drove through the fire's path with a couple of power poles still burning.

Thankful that the route was reopened for you and your buddy bro.

What kind of fish did you all catch?

[snowbo]

we had a forest fire here yesterday. ( very rare for this time of year ) I drove into town for lunch and was able to see the smoke about a mile away. its been very dry here but the temps and humidity have been wonderful. cooler then avg for sure.

Spent last week fishing near Hornepayne, Ontario. There's only 1 road that goes to Hornepayne and it was closed at first due to visibility issues and then as the fire jumped the road. Luckily, the road was reopened on Sunday for us to leave. It was quite a charred mess as we drove through the fire's path with a couple of power poles still burning.

Oh wow! Hopefully the smell of the smoke and vis issues didn't ruin your trip, unless you fished N of the fire, and only had to deal with it going home.

EDIT: I had to see where Hornepayne was on a map. You're even more north then where our family used to do fishing near Dubreuilville on Lake Wabatongushi.

https://lochisland.com/ontario-fishing/ ... ushi-lake/

We fished Obakamiga Lake and were north and west of the fire. It was fascinating to sit in our boat watching the smoke billowing and the wind carrying the plume to the northeast. Unfortunately, by the end of the week, we got a northeast wind and all the smoke came back into camp. The floatplane ride in the smoke was interesting indeed.

The fishing is still feeling the effects of covid - no American fishermen for 2 years - and was awesome again. The two of us caught 447 walleyes and a couple dozen pike. Not much size to the walleyes as most were in the 18 to 20 inch range. The biggest was only 23 but I'm certainly not complaining.

https://www.fishbucklake.com/

[tron777]

Sounds like our trips to Canada back in the day as far as the number of fish that were caught! Way to go Bo! That is awesome!

[tron777]

Good evening! 85 here today. CVG topped out at 86. A band of light rain N of I70 is dropping SSE associated with the backdoor front. Good luck! 0.10" or less expected IMO. Next chance is this weekend mainly on Sunday into early next week. We may see another front mid to late next week as the pattern tries to change. I don't see any big heat or 90s at this time.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 86, DAY 83 and CMH 82 on Tues.