Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:47 pm NAM is not impressed with tomorrow locally

18z HRRR is a snoozer as well. If those trends continue, we’ll need to decrease our severe threat. Will be interesting to see if the overnight runs continue this or crank back up. But the trends for a weaker outcome severe-wise should be noted.

I don't think it dropped below 70 here! Good morning all. 73 from the swamps of Burlington. Is it June already? Dews are juicy and we have weak CAPE over the area now. We'll see in a little bit once the sun comes up some more what the cloud cover looks like. Overcast here at the moment. ILN is going with lower 80s today.

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface analysis shows low pressure tracking to Wisconsin as
suggested by earlier model runs. This has placed ILN in the warm
and humid southerly flow ahead of the low and associated cold
front.

Synoptic scale winds developing in the tight pressure gradient
surrounding the low will continue to increase, with gusts over
40 mph likely by mid morning, slightly lower in eastern counties
that are farther from the low center. Therefore, a wind
advisory will remain in effect across the western half of the FA
8am to 8pm.

Showers and thunderstorms forming along the warm conveyor belt
ahead of the cold front will spread across the area late this
morning and this afternoon. Ample instability and very strong
wind fields will enhance storm strength and organization,
allowing some storms to reach severe limits, with damaging
winds the main threat. Tornadoes are also possible, especially
in northwestern locations where favorable shear and instability
will coincide.

Thanks to warm advection on the southerly flow, temperatures
will stay well above normal, with highs ranging from the mid 70s
northwest to the mid 80s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will linger
early this evening as the cold front progresses east. Dry
weather can be expected by late evening in northwest counties,
while showers and a few thunderstorms may persist behind the
front in southeast counties through tonight and much of
Thursday. Winds will subside as the low moves to Canada and high
pressure arrives from the west.


SPC offers up no changes this morning on their Day 1 Outlook. Still Enhanced for all posters and locations.

Looking at radar... that batch of heavy rain and storms in SW IN could be the party killer for the front, which is way back out in ILL still closing in on St. Louis. We'll just have to watch how the day unfolds together but my hunch is that clouds may damper things a bit. We will have to track that area of heavy rain too. 10Z HRRR has that IN action missing us to the NW tracking more thru Central IN. Then the ILL line gets here in that 3-4pm window. 6Z NAM looks pretty beefy to me from the overnight sounding. What happens between now and noon should tell us what we need to know.

Good Morning Les. Trend is your friend and this year the wind is a friend that has overstayed his welcome. No doubt winds will be the major severe threat over the next 18 hours or so. Sure a few isolated tornado's are possible and some heavy rain but nothing that will cause any widespread flooding.We should get a nice break finally and several days of nice weather with a warming trend though slow in the works.

Ok... so the visible is showing clouds back across most of IN then there is a small window of clearing right ahead of the front. Now the front is moving slowly so we have time to see if some of those clouds thin out any to allow for some heating. If we can hit 80+ it is game on with this humid airmass. If clouds keep us in the middle 70s or something then it is a different story. That is kind of my mindset right now.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:43 am Good Morning Les. Trend is your friend and this year the wind is a friend that has overstayed his welcome. No doubt winds will be the major severe threat over the next 18 hours or so. Sure a few isolated tornado's are possible and some heavy rain but nothing that will cause any widespread flooding.We should get a nice break finally and several days of nice weather with a warming trend though slow in the works.

Hey Tim! Good morning. I forgot to mention the wind advisory so thank you for that. Gusts in excess of 40 mph possible without storms for sure. The breeze is already up IMBY thus the humid conditions. We have very strong southerly flow today so moisture is not the problem. Heating / CAPE is the only issue I see now that we know that the timing is going to be better.

Then as you mentioned smooth sailing for a while and a lot of 70s starting on Easter. Wish my vacay was next week instead. Looks wonderful next week!

EDIT: the majority of the GFS is trying to skip over Spring and bring in summer LOL

SPC update now shows the hatched areas have been removed for TOR and Hail. Everyone is pretty much at 15% for hail, 30% for wind, and 55 for Tor. no changes to the placement of the enhanced risk area.

Mesoanalysis at this hour shows some thinning of the clouds to our SW in KY as well as Western IN. Need to monitor that trend. New update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nudged PoPs up across east-central IN and west-central OH this
morning based on radar trends... tracking an area of weakening
showers and storms shifting northeast through our western
counties. With LLJ core across IN, will need to watch for gusts
mixing down along and ahead of this convection.

Otherwise, no significant changes made to thinking for severe
potential this afternoon. Convection will likely move into
west-central OH first... perhaps as early as midday. Long/curved
hodographs with CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 (depending on
model) leads to concern for supercells if activity remains
cellular. Otherwise, linear segments could bring threat for
mesovortex development along with damaging winds.

ALERT: TOR Watch issued until 5pm!

Watch info and discussion:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0127.html

Seeing a few peeks of sun here now.

filtered sunshine in Morrow/Maineville area...

I have made a post in the weather apps and stations forum about my weather radio. Can you guys please view it and offer advice? Thank you!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2023 10:35 am Watch info and discussion:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0127.html

Seeing a few peeks of sun here now.

What did they do, paste the outline of the state of Ohio for the watch box? Lol Lol

Well, it feels real humid out there and even though the sun is filtered, it's still coming through. Do to the redevelopment to our west I will keep an eye on radar and the sky over the next few hours for sure.

Temps across NKY are in the 75-77 degree range now that we are seeing some sun., 80+ should be achievable.

Activity continues to develop to the West. Non-severe so far.

Rain just starting up here.

My folks, an aunt and myself were planning to have our first line dance lesson session this afternoon from 1 to 3 o'clock at a senior center on the edge of Greenville. A guy from Huber Heights near Dayton is the instructor. Due to today's forecast set up Mom, my aunt and I decided to opt out. Glad these particular line dance lessons are free. Dad is still planning to make a go of it for today.

Currently 72, DP of 61 here in my area with a gust of 30 mph. ILN has a high of 77 progged for up this way so will see.

So far, just some light rain, not too much to work the atmosphere over. I'd feel better if we could see a little more heating.

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1235 UNK 1 WNW GREENCASTLE PUTNAM IN 3965 8685 ADDED INFO TO PREVIOUS REPORT. A NUMBER OF TREES DOWN IN PUTNAM COUNTY. NOTED BETWEEN BAINBRIDGE AND DANVILLE ... AND ALSO NEAR BELLE UNION. (IND)

1236 UNK GOSPORT OWEN IN 3935 8667 LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN. (IND)

1255 UNK 2 WSW CLERMONT HENDRICKS IN 3981 8636 LARGE TREE AND POWER POLE DOWN NEAR 300 N AND 950 E. (IND)

1255 UNK 3 NW CROWS NEST MARION IN 3987 8621 REPORT OF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURE. TIME ESTIMATED. (IND)

1300 UNK 1 ESE BROWNSBURG HENDRICKS IN 3984 8637 POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (IND)

1302 60 1 SW INDIANAPOLIS INT'L MARION IN 3972 8630 ASOS STATION KIND INDIANAPOLIS. (IND)

1306 UNK 2 SSE INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUND MARION IN 3981 8612 LARGE TREE FELL ON A CAR. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (IND)

1558 UNK NEW ROSS MONTGOMERY IN 3996 8670 DAMAGE TO A ROOF AND TREES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (IND)

1611 UNK 3 WSW KOKOMO HOWARD IN 4046 8618 ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE TO A LARGE METAL SHED. (IND)

1618 UNK 3 WSW WHITESTOWN BOONE IN 3998 8640 SEMI FLIPPED ON INTERSTATE 65 BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. (IND)

1708 UNK 5 N FORT WAYNE ALLEN IN 4115 8514 BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT 12310 HUMMINGBIRD COVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (IWX)

1737 UNK NEY DEFIANCE OH 4138 8452 TREE THROUGH THE ROOF OF A HOUSE ON NORTH JACKSON STREET. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (IWX)

1813 UNK 1 NNE COLUMBUS HICKMAN KY 3678 8909 MULTIPLE HOMES HAVE ROOF DAMAGE. SEVERAL TREES DOWN. (PAH)

1815 UNK 1 ENE ARLINGTON CARLISLE KY 3679 8900 TREE ON TRAILER. CHURCH HAS MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE. TREE ON CARPORT AND TRUCK. CARPORT LIFTED IN THE AIR STRUCK 2 HOUSES AND A POWER POLE. (PAH)

1838 UNK 3 S REIDLAND MCCRACKEN KY 3696 8851 TREE DOWN WITH POWER LINES AND BROKEN POLE. (PAH)

1907 UNK 1 ENE MURRAY CALLOWAY KY 3662 8830 POLES AND POWER LINES DOWN. DEBRIS ON FIELDS AND ROADSIDES. (PAH)

1916 UNK 2 E DARMSTADT VANDERBURGH IN 3809 8753 LARGE TREE DOWN. (PAH)

1917 62 EVANSVILLE VANDERBURGH IN 3798 8754 MEASURED AT THE EVANSVILLE AIRPORT ASOS (PAH)

1921 59 HENDERSON HENDERSON KY 3784 8758 MEASURED AT THE HENDERSON AIRPORT AWOS (PAH)

1943 66 OWENSBORO DAVIESS KY 3776 8712 MEASURED 66 MPH GUST AT THE OWENSBORO AIRPORT (PAH)

1945 UNK 4 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3772 8718 HWY 81 POLES IN THE ROAD. (PAH)

1950 UNK CHRISNEY SPENCER IN 3801 8703 BARN DESTROYED IN SOUTHERN CHRISNEY AREA. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (PAH)

1954 UNK 1 N MOSELEYVILLE DAVIESS KY 3768 8719 HIGHWAY 81 CLOSED IN DAVIESS COUNTY DUE TO POWER LINES AND POLES ON THE HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. LOCATION IS ESTIMATED FOR LSR. (PAH)

1956 66 4 SW OWENSBORO DAVIESS KY 3772 8717 AWOS STATION KOWB OWENSBORO KY. (PAH)

2000 58 2 WSW CENTRAL CITY MUHLENBERG KY 3729 8716 MESONET STATION CCTY GREENVILLE KY 6 N. (PAH)

2007 59 KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT HAMILTON OH 3910 8442 (ILN)

2015 60 2 ENE HARTFORD OHIO KY 3746 8686 WIND GUST OF 60 MPH OBSERVED AT OHIO COUNTY KENTUCKY MESONET SITE (HTFD). (LMK)

2015 UNK 5 SSW BLUE ASH HAMILTON OH 3918 8442 12 INCH TREE DOWN ... BLOCKING ROAD ON GRAND VISTA AVENUE. (ILN)

2023 UNK STEPHENSPORT BRECKINRIDGE KY 3792 8653 LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE IN STEPHENSPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

Pouring here in G'ville.

Currently 70 with a gust of 30 mph.

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81 on the B’goney thermometer with mostly sunny skies and breezy

Will be interesting what becomes of today's Redlegs vs Cubbies Business Day Special rubber match at the GAB.

Currently in delay mode. May end up ppd ?

My son and his family are at the game..
83 here on my back porch.
Windy (lol) with filtered sun.

Mid 70s here with another sprinkler. Not much rain for my hood yet. Most of it remains to my west and north. Radar's lit up nicely back to the west though for the drive home today.