Absolute Vorticity

In Addition to TS Lee, we are also tracking another Southern slider off of Africa that has a high chance to develop in the next 5 days. The tropics are still kickin'!

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 44.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Lee is up to 70 mph now moving WNW at 14 mph. A hurricane is likely on the next update. Next wave off of Africa has a 60% chance in the next 5 days. Current indications are that this one will get a name but be a fish storm and recurve well before it even gets to The islands so attm, all eyes are on Lee.

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Hurricane Lee looks to be a major hurricane though I doubt it hits the mainland USA. This storm looks to be a slow mover and this creates a traffic jam for weather events to the west. Lucky for us that we will be on the cooler side of things during this period.

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 48.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

TD 14 is now born. It will become a hurricane but recurve and not bother anyone.

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 26.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

An update on Lee:

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

Not ruling out a Cat 5 with this one and also wondering if it comes a little more West before taking the turn. ENS guidance has been slowly shifting in that direction.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:53 pm Not ruling out a Cat 5 with this one and also wondering if it comes a little more West before taking the turn. ENS guidance has been slowly shifting in that direction.

I have noticed that Les and another reason the system is taking its sweet old time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:53 pm Not ruling out a Cat 5 with this one and also wondering if it comes a little more West before taking the turn. ENS guidance has been slowly shifting in that direction.

I have noticed that Les and another reason the system is taking its sweet old time.

The Euro crashes the system into Maine lol

Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARGOT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 28.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Lee is up to 130 now and exploding in development. A Cat 5 is likely now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

Lee is a monster Cat 5 - 165 mph now and may top out at 180!

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LEE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES

Margot has winds of 40 mph this morning.

Very nice looking Hurricane. Good news imo is overnight the NHC as it turning to the north somewhat quicker than yesterday. This should keep it from most of the mainland and though some models still having it hit Maine we will see because once it gets so far north in Latitude these storms tend to get swept out to sea especially if the troughs expected next week happen. If somehow its so slow and misses the trough then that could lead to someone in the northeast getting hit but imo that is slim at the moment.

Down to 155 as of 11am for Lee. A little SW shear is occurring this morning.

Lee is down to 115 mph. It is expected to regain strength back up to 140 per the intensity forecast in the coming days.

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...LEE MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 57.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

Margot has winds of 45 mph this morning.

Lee is at 115mph moving WNW at 12 and Margot is at 45 mph moving WNW at 12 as of 11am.

Lee Tracks:

Lee is holding at 105 mph this morning and Margot is at 50 mph. None pose a threat to land at this time. Lee is still encountering shear but that is expected to relax in the next 48 hours. Lee will also begin to slow down in a few more days in the SW Atlantic. So let's see how the timing of Lee and our Tues trough works out along with the end of next week system trying to push in as Lee is coming up from the south over the Atlantic.

Lee is re-strengthening now, getting better organized. Winds at 110 mph now.

Lee is back up to 120 now as of 5pm and Margot has winds of 65.