Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:23 am I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:23 am I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:26 am EU has been most consistent last 4 runs. But no doubt there is nothing set in stone

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:45 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:23 am I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

Great posts guys, yea, good luck measuring. Even if we get the EU solution of 1-3" , with the winds and bitter temps to go along with it , to me would be top 3 worst winter storm of the 2000s. Give me a foot of snow and 20 degree temps and I want to be out in it, give me 1-3 and 30-40mph + winds , I don't want any part of that

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:09 am I'll be smoking meat outside and keeping an eye on our storm too. Football will be on naturally.

MattD41 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:04 am What an exciting potential storm

Hey Les…. You still seeing signals for sfter xmas storm too?

Glad this forum is back

Matt - Colerain

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:09 am I'll be smoking meat outside and keeping an eye on our storm too. Football will be on naturally.

Great time to smoke. I'll have the smoker going later this week at the woodpile while getting ready for Santa.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:21 am I was watching a video update last night he was saying the GFS probably has a better handle on this system. the EURO is too far west and he thinks the storm could even wiggle a bit more east even. they were saying what a big deal this could end up being for the OV area comparing to the superbomb of 78' even. this system is forecast to really be strong and the combination of that massive cold high pressure to the west and this intensifying low as it heads north is gonna create high precip rates and strong winds.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:36 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

cincy bud wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:54 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:36 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:00 am

cincy bud wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:54 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:36 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

Euro showing rain at first. That low needs to move east some.