White Christmas Blizzard 2022

[tron777]

I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

Regardless of what happens on the snow side we must continue to hit the wind message hard, the temp drop and brutal wind chills. You can take that to the bank.

[Bgoney]

I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

Great posts guys, yea, good luck measuring. Even if we get the EU solution of 1-3" , with the winds and bitter temps to go along with it , to me would be top 3 worst winter storm of the 2000s. Give me a foot of snow and 20 degree temps and I want to be out in it, give me 1-3 and 30-40mph + winds , I don't want any part of that

[tron777]

EU has been most consistent last 4 runs. But no doubt there is nothing set in stone

EPS has also been matching the Op. Gefs matched op GFS. So which model is handling the Pacific better? We'll soon know.

[tron777]

I want to also mention looking at model snow maps. The Kuchera maps will be too high. Yes we have cold air crashing in and yes that normally ups the ratios. However with this storm being strong winds gusting 30-50 mph depending on how strong the low gets... The flakes will get shredded on their way down to I'd use the 10:1 maps or least knock 2-3" off of Kuchera when making your forecasts later this week.

You made a wonderful post Les about the winds. I never use the Kuchera when making snowfall predictions. Want to mention the 1978 blizzard and sure there are a few things with a pattern like this you can take from the year but this is not the 1978 blizzard. Even though it bombed over Cleveland and the trough dug down to the gom and had a lot more warm air on the east side which brought up tons of moisture. Only 8 inches fell at CVG but the flash freeze and winds made it one hell of a storm.

I am more worried about the winds and possible power outages as we head into the Christmas weekend. Snow totals may not be easy to measure either as wind swept snow is always touch to measure and especially if you start getting some drifts where one side of yard is almost bare and a foot on the other side where the snow kept piling up because of the winds. Since the nao is more neutral this storm will be on the move but you have that 12-18 hours where it should form quickly and then you hope you are on the northwest side of the storm to get the more bang for your buck.

Great posts guys, yea, good luck measuring. Even if we get the EU solution of 1-3" , with the winds and bitter temps to go along with it , to me would be top 3 worst winter storm of the 2000s. Give me a foot of snow and 20 degree temps and I want to be out in it, give me 1-3 and 30-40mph + winds , I don't want any part of that

You said it! Perfect post!!!

[allowat3]

The hounds have went nuts and posted it's going to snow on Facebook, but they are mute when comes to totals. The cold and wind is going to make this a rough time no matter what amount we get.

[tpweather]

Bgoney that was a wonderful post. I know many times we get all wrapped up with accumulations but its the other conditions that can make a storm bad and then the timing of just before Christmas. When its 28-30 degrees and very little wind moving the snow is rather easy. If you get a glaze of ice and 1-3 inches and winds blowing over 30 mph with temps dropping into the teens is horrible. My driveway is on a big hill and sometimes I will leave the snow intact because that is the only traction I will be able to handle

[tron777]

Ditto with my driveway Tim! Hope we can manage all snow. Ice on my driveway is a death trap!

[tpweather]

I will be back later this morning so I can indulge myself with model runs and football games lol. Will need to make some wings for later as that is a perfect meal for the 4pm game. Thank you to the Cleveland Browns btw.

[tron777]

I'll be smoking meat outside and keeping an eye on our storm too. Football will be on naturally.

[MattD41]

What an exciting potential storm

Hey Les…. You still seeing signals for sfter xmas storm too?

Glad this forum is back

Matt - Colerain

[mainevilleweather]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

[Woolyworm]

I'll be smoking meat outside and keeping an eye on our storm too. Football will be on naturally.

Great time to smoke. I'll have the smoker going later this week at the woodpile while getting ready for Santa.

[airwolf76]

I was watching a video update last night he was saying the GFS probably has a better handle on this system. the EURO is too far west and he thinks the storm could even wiggle a bit more east even. they were saying what a big deal this could end up being for the OV area comparing to the superbomb of 78' even. this system is forecast to really be strong and the combination of that massive cold high pressure to the west and this intensifying low as it heads north is gonna create high precip rates and strong winds.

[tron777]

What an exciting potential storm

Hey Les…. You still seeing signals for sfter xmas storm too?

Glad this forum is back

Matt - Colerain

Hey Matt! Glad you're back too! I have not looked much at after Christmas lately but if I had to guess in what I remember maybe some clipper type action?

[tron777]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

That's what bothers me too.

[tron777]

I'll be smoking meat outside and keeping an eye on our storm too. Football will be on naturally.

Great time to smoke. I'll have the smoker going later this week at the woodpile while getting ready for Santa.

I love smoking and grilling anytime of year but it's awesome in the winter esp when snowing lol

[tron777]

I was watching a video update last night he was saying the GFS probably has a better handle on this system. the EURO is too far west and he thinks the storm could even wiggle a bit more east even. they were saying what a big deal this could end up being for the OV area comparing to the superbomb of 78' even. this system is forecast to really be strong and the combination of that massive cold high pressure to the west and this intensifying low as it heads north is gonna create high precip rates and strong winds.

Great post Charles! Which model is handling the Pacific pattern the best? Somebody's going to get hammered there is no doubt.

[mainevilleweather]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

[cincy bud]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

[mainevilleweather]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

Euro showing rain at first. That low needs to move east some.

[young pup]

I just saw this thread and read the last few posts so this may have been mentioned somewhere in here. If you have generators test them out sooner rather than later. You don't want to be scrambling to fire those up. With that said, looking forward to a White Christmas but could do with the winds and possible power outages.

[cincy bud]

Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

Euro showing rain at first. That low needs to move east some.

I lived through the blizzards of 77/78. We had thunderstorms and then thunder ice and snow.
I am 20 minutes from I-70 and I am at an altitude of 1000 ft above sea level. It can be raining 3 miles south and we have snow.

[mikeyp]

Gfs further west so far but a strong storm! Looks to follow euro

[Bgoney]

GFS makes another step towards the EU

[mikeyp]

Still not a bad run. I’ll take what I can get it!