Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:48 pm**

Les I am going on the higher end with the rain as we have the moisture ahead of the warm front and then we have the cold front pushing it south and east. Somebody I believe in Northern Kentucky could end up with over 3 inches. The main thing is I am only 68 posts behind Les so I have caught up somewhat in the past 2 days.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:25 pm**

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:59 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:48 pm Les I am going on the higher end with the rain as we have the moisture ahead of the warm front and then we have the cold front pushing it south and east. Somebody I believe in Northern Kentucky could end up with over 3 inches. The main thing is I am only 68 posts behind Les so I have caught up somewhat in the past 2 days.

I hope I don't get 3" LOL 2" will be enough for me. Really an inch is plenty but CVG should at least do an inch and a half without a problem. The Gulf is open for business.

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Check out those PWATS in Western TN. :O

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:03 pm**

18Z Euro spitting out 1.8" at CVG so that's a slight increase. Just over an inch at DAY and around an inch at CMH. SE Crew - Matt gets 2.2"

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm**

Who’s ready to

tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm**

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?

Got mine!

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:38 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?
Got mine!

As for rainfall amounts, I think a general 1-3” should cover most areas in the tristate. More south, less north. Both the globals and high-res models support a good 1.5-2.5” in Cincinnati. Thus I like the 1-3” call for this one.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:41 pm**

I’m also very much interested in the strong likelihood that there will be rumblers mixed in with the heavier periods of rain. Thunder/lightning is likely for many areas at some point.

Edit: severe t’storms should stay south of the river. Further south (central and north central KY) may see a warning or two tomorrow.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:47 pm**

Some MU CAPE getting into SKY already. MD issued for the TN Valley - A watch is unlikely to be issued. Getting nosier to the south though.

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:52 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:25 pmweatherstory.png

I'm always in the bullseye for rain not snow LOL

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:00 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:47 pm Some MU CAPE getting into SKY already. MD issued for the TN Valley - A watch is unlikely to be issued. Getting nosier to the south though.

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:07 pm**

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:52 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:25 pmweatherstory.png
I'm always in the bullseye for rain not snow LOL

This one is useful when discussing the models.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:13 pm**

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Our new forum is great!

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:18 pm**

Me thinky that the radar is gonna blossom tonight and tomorrow

Tons of moisture funneling up this way.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:22 pm**

The Gulf is wide open for business,

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:11 pm**

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Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:14 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?
Got mine!

We flood every time it rains hard, so I am not looking forward to heavy rain at all. I am hopeful for some thunder though. It's been a while.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:28 pm**

Angelika wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:14 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?
Got mine!
We flood every time it rains hard, so I am not looking forward to heavy rain at all. I am hopeful for some thunder though. It's been a while.

Periods of heavy rain are likely tonight and tomorrow, especially first part of the day. As it stands, ILN is not pushing the watches north. That could change, but for now they are holding with their watch placement.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:31 pm**

00z NAM rainfall forecast. As the data has shown for a while now, amounts will drop off north of the river. 1-3” should cover it for the tristate area. Localized banding (as we see with snow) could lead to higher amounts, but that should be south of the river.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:37 pm**

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:28 pm
Angelika wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:14 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?
Got mine!
We flood every time it rains hard, so I am not looking forward to heavy rain at all. I am hopeful for some thunder though. It's been a while.
Periods of heavy rain are likely tonight and tomorrow, especially first part of the day. As it stands, ILN is not pushing the watches north. That could change, but for now they are holding with their watch placement.

Trev, we have our external sump pump ready to plug in when we need it. Water floods into the garage and also tries to collect under the front window. We're afraid it might get into the house if enough collects. The guy who did our driveway and front walk did not grade them properly, so we have to plan outings around the weather because we're nervous about flooding.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:38 pm**

00z RAP

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:39 pm**

00z HRRR

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:42 pm**

Re: 00z HRRR...those modeled amounts (blue) in central KY are kinda insane. More than likely convective feedback issues on the model.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:45 pm**

Angelika wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:37 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:28 pm
Angelika wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:14 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:27 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:19 pm Who’s ready to tonight and tomorrow with all of this heavy rain?!?
Got mine!
We flood every time it rains hard, so I am not looking forward to heavy rain at all. I am hopeful for some thunder though. It's been a while.
Periods of heavy rain are likely tonight and tomorrow, especially first part of the day. As it stands, ILN is not pushing the watches north. That could change, but for now they are holding with their watch placement.
Trev, we have our external sump pump ready to plug in when we need it. Water floods into the garage and also tries to collect under the front window. We're afraid it might get into the house if enough collects. The guy who did our driveway and front walk did not grade them properly, so we have to plan outings around the weather because we're nervous about flooding.

Hey Ang, that sucks! Sorry to hear that

Whoever did that job for you screwed it up big time. Well as always hang here with us and we’ll keep you advised on incoming weather issues.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:47 pm**

Ang: being in Butler Co you have a better chance to avoid the higher rainfall totals.

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