Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:08 am Watching a Ft Myers beach cam. A lovely day for beach goers!

I saw TWC's Mike Seidel reporting from Ft Myers!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:04 am Prayers for my one friend, his wife and children who live in the Cape Coral (on the Colusa Hatchie river) area just southeast of Ft Myers. They decided to not evacuate, My other friend who's been in contact with him since yesterday said that they are really scared.

Hi Joe,

Prayers and thoughts sent up for your friend and his family, bro and for many others in Ian's path.

I have a cousin and her fiance along with his grandparents who reside in Melbourne which is southeast of Orlando.

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MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:56 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:04 am Prayers for my one friend, his wife and children who live in the Cape Coral (on the Colusa Hatchie river) area just southeast of Ft Myers. They decided to not evacuate, My other friend who's been in contact with him since yesterday said that they are really scared.

Hi Joe,

Prayers and thoughts sent up for your friend and his family, bro and for many others in Ian's path.

I have a cousin and her fiance along with his grandparents who reside in Melbourne which is southeast of Orlando.

Thanks Eric, we're still waiting to hear what the impacts (hopefully not much) as the SE portion of the eye wall moves over his area within the hour. Not looking good though!

Ian already east of NHC track

So far from Wed ...

1300 58 25 ENE PORT CANAVERAL AMZ572 FL 2851 8019 (MLB)

1929 5 W CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMPGROUND BREVARD FL 2809 8083 MULTIPLE SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEOS SHOWED A BRIEF TORNADO SUPPORTED BY RADAR IMAGERY CROSSING HWY 192 JUST EAST OF THE BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTY LINE. (MLB)

2026 110 1 SE GROVE CITY CHARLOTTE FL 2690 8231 MESONET STATION XGRV GROVE CITY 110MPH GUST. (TBW)

UKMET scored a big win as far as the most southern track and landfall , plus the re-entry into the Atlantic, it had this for many days. Didn't quite get the cat 4 at landfall, but I don't any of the major models did with any lead time

I agree about the models and don't blame them on the cat 4 because this is a rather rare event and not much data to work with. Usually I am the one trashing the models lol but not this time.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:30 pm UKMET scored a big win as far as the most southern track and landfall , plus the re-entry into the Atlantic, it had this for many days. Didn't quite get the cat 4 at landfall, but I don't any of the major models did with any lead time

The ICON model also was similar to the UKIE interestingly enough.

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The part of the storm we have not talked about much is when this emerges over the Atlantic and heads toward the SC shoreline. Very low lying areas and Charleston floods when it rains hard so this can have some big impacts later Friday and Saturday. Not sure if it will be a tropical storm or Cat 1 but either way tons of rainfall and a nice onshore wind will cause problems.

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...4 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND IN THE CAPE CORAL-PUNTA GORDA AREA...

The Punta Gorda airport recently reported a wind gust of 124 mph
(200 km/h), and a station at the Cape Coral Fire Department
recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

Yea , I haven't seen any winds higher than those Les posted on land thankfully.

Pics I am seeing online are pretty bad from a storm surge perspective as one would expect from a system like this. Over 600K and rising without power across the state as well. Ft Myers and the Cape Coral areas are really taking it in the chin!

At 4:27 PM EDT, 3 SE Cape Coral [Lee Co, FL] MESONET reports HURRICANE. CAPE CORAL YACHT CLUB WEATHERSTEM REPORTS 112MPH GUST TO 135MPH.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 2209282027

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... =hp-slot-2

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... =hp-slot-4

Jim Cantore via Punta Gorda and Mike Seidel via Ft Myers.

Almost the same spot Charley made landfall years back and I believe was a cat 4 also, correct me if I'm wrong please

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:21 pm Almost the same spot Charley made landfall years back and I believe was a cat 4 also, correct me if I'm wrong please

That is correct as far as I know. Charley was back in 2004.

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...7 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A NOAA National Ocean Service station near Ft. Myers recently
reported a water level greater than 7 ft (2.1 m) Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW).

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower
recently reported sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

A private weather station near Port Charlotte reported a sustained
wind of 115 mph (185 km/h) with a wind gust of 132 mph (212 km/h)
as Ian made landfall on the mainland Florida peninsula a little
more than 2 hours ago.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Looking at radar atm, Ian no longer has an eye ,which alot quicker than I expected. Dry air has wrapped around on the SE side of Ian, very little rain in that quadrant

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TS Ian this morning with winds of 65 mph. It will go back over the water today and possibly get back to a Cat 1 before making landfall in SC again tomorrow.