August 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

No changes from the new SPC update. Still a slight risk for the Cincy area. 2% TOR, 5% hail and 15% for wind.

[tron777]

CAPE is around 2500 J/KG. DCAPE values around 1100-1200 now.

[tron777]

84 / 69 as of 4pm at CVG.

[tron777]

T-storm Watch likely to be issued soon for Cincy Metro on south.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1625.html


DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and visible satellite
imagery place an outflow boundary from central IL eastward across
central IN and into southern OH. Air mass in the vicinity and south
of this boundary continues to destabilize, with little to no
convective inhibition remaining per the latest mesoanalysis. Warm
and moist surface conditions, coupled with relatively cool mid-level
temperatures, are supporting moderate to strong buoyancy across the
region. The strongest instability is across southern IL, where
temperatures have reached the upper 80s/low 90s amid mid 70s
dewpoints. Current mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 3500 J/kg
across all of southern IL. Instability gradually decreases with
eastern extent, coincident with decreasing temperatures and
dewpoints. Even so, MLCAPE is still estimated to be around 1500-2000
J/kg across southern OH. Moderate vertical shear also exists across
this region, with effective bulk shear ranging from 35 kt over
southern IL to 45 kt over southern OH.

Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this environment
along the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening. Modest
convergence along the boundary and remnant convective inhibition has
limited convective initiation thus far. However, convective
inhibition has eroded and a modest increase in ascent associated
with the approaching shortwave trough should lead to an increase in
thunderstorm development. Given the environment, any storms that do
develop will likely be strong to severe, with damaging downburst
winds as the primary threat. Any supercells that develop could also
product hail and maybe even a brief tornado.

[tpweather]

Les so far the showers and thundershowers are isolated in nature. Can these pop enough to form a stronger line is the main question. Still plenty of time for this to happen but folks towards I-70 the chances are becoming less as drier air is trying to push south.

[tron777]

Les so far the showers and thundershowers are isolated in nature. Can these pop enough to form a stronger line is the main question. Still plenty of time for this to happen but folks towards I-70 the chances are becoming less as drier air is trying to push south.

Yeah, I agree as far as the location is concerned. Def going to be a Cincy Tri-state area affair and points south. If you live north of that line of showers, it's game over. Along and S of it, you're still involved.

[Browneyedgirl]

We had a nice garden variety thunderstorm that gave us .2 inches of rain.

Every little bit helps.

[tron777]

Eastern ILL currently has the nicest looking cells since temps, dews, CAPE, are much higher then what we have here. However, CVG Land has enough CAPE IMO for strong to severe storms to occur should we get enough organization going. Bulk shear should be good enough to allow for more storm organization as time goes on. Remember, we are fair game until midnight. Some guidance was even later then that, some as early as 7 or 8pm. We have a lot of watching to do still.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and sun is back out so more energy to work with.

[tron777]

Watch Box just issued for S IN and LOU areas. This is to the West of AV Country at this time. Watch goes until 11pm EDT.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0508.html

[tron777]

My wx radio just went off about a t-storm watch until 11pm. Hmmm, don't see anything for us on the SPC's site. So not sure what's up with that?

[tron777]

85 at CVG, 84 here. Dews are back into the L70s now.

[tron777]

Ok, here is our watch until 11pm EDT. We do have one issued for the Tri-state.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0509.html


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far southeast Indiana
Northeast Kentucky
Southwest Ohio

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A few cells should eventually consolidate into a cluster
across the central Ohio Valley with damaging winds and a tornado or
two as the main hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Cincinnati OH to 85 miles east of Cincinnati OH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

[tron777]

A few drops here from an isolated cell mainly to my north at this time. Cvg will catch it though.

[tron777]

NEW update as of 15 mins ago from the boys:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Storms developing along an east-west oriented outflow boundary
that stretches from southern Indiana into extreme southern
Ohio. Best coverage of storms acrs southeast Indiana where CAPE
gradient exists. Low level theta-e advection will support ML
CAPE values of 2500 to 3000 J/KG across ILN/s southern counties.
0-3km Bulk shear around 35 KTs will support organized storms.
Expect storms to increase in coverage across SE Indiana,
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky during the next couple of
hours. With DCAPE values of 1200 J/KG expect main threat to be
damaging winds. 0-1 SRH are forecast to increase to values above
200 M2/S2 across this region this evening. Can not rule out the
possibility of a tornado in this environment. A severe
thunderstorm watch has been issued for this area until 11 PM
EDT.

[Buckeye]

Tornado warning in Dearborn County: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DEARBORN COUNTY...

At 618 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bright, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Hidden Valley, Bright, Guilford, Logan,
Manchester, West Harrison, Dover and New Alsace.

Nice and sunny here in West Carrollton....

[tron777]

Figures... as I was eating dinner that happened. Rotation doesn't look as good as it did earlier. It is moving thru the Hidden Valley Lake area now. SW Hamilton and N Boone next in line. I will get missed by that cell, but CVG might catch it.

We now have a Flood Watch until 4am tonight for the Tri-state.


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio,
including the following counties, in Southeast Indiana, Dearborn,
Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland. In Kentucky, Boone, Bracken,
Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen,
Pendleton and Robertson. In Ohio, Adams, Brown, Clermont, Hamilton
and Scioto.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Thunderstorms will track over the same area with periods of
heavy rain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts.

[tron777]

Watching other cells along the River in SW Ohio towards Brown Co. Other cells approaching Ripley Co are the ones that folks over NKY may need to keep an eye on for later.

[tron777]

Still holding at 83 here with a dew of 73. So far, it's the ole Splitsville for me.

[tpweather]

Nothing here Les with a temp of 83 and dew of 71

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .20" from this morning. That's been it for today, thankful for any though and looking forward to some more chances later this week.

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

I'm with Eric... whether we get anything tonight or not, doesn't matter. Tons more chances upcoming this week and in the long range too. We've went from worrying about drought to flooding IMHO.

[Bgoney]

Plenty of distant thunder and cool outflow boundary breezes here

[tron777]

So far Tim, it is looking like a swing and a miss for our hoods. Oh well... like I said earlier no biggie.

[Trevor]

Pretty nice little couplet there earlier for a few scans.