Absolute Vorticity

57 at CVG, about 60 currently here. Get ready for another nice day folks! U70s to around 80 or so. Most folks L80s on Sunday.

Currently 77 here in G'ville and look to top out at around 79.

83 here today. CVG 82 currently. Got the garage cleaned out some today so fireworks production work can begin soon. Mowed the lawn and will rapid gro my plants again tomorrow.

83 for CVG today. We should be 85 or 86 tomorrow then rain / storms as we roll into next week.

Good Sunday morning to you all! We have a couple of forecast adjustments to make for next week. The rain chances still look to begin Monday afternoon. Best chances come overnight into the day on Tuesday. Then, another wave for Wed, esp late in the day and into the overnight period again. Then, another wave for Friday into Sat for next weekend also. We keep getting repeated rounds of showers and t-storms as waves of energy continue to track along a stalled out frontal boundary. A nice NW flow type pattern for next week. The majority of the severe wx looks to stay to our West and it's more of a heavy rain issue for us.

Only 83 here today. CVG the same. Look for more humidity and a few more degrees on temps tomorrow as we heat up for PM t-storm development. This kicks off another active pattern with rain chances 5 out of the next 7 days starting tomorrow.

5% chance of wind for the MV and parts of the Tri-state for Mon.

Good morning! Hope everyone is ready to get wet this afternoon and tonight, We should hit the mid 80s if storms avoid CVG long enough.

Good Morning Les. Back home and will need to mow the grass this morning before the rain arrives. Severe threat is rather low and biggest threat is some training of thundershowers late today and overnight which can produce some decent rainfall. Two more chances for rainfall this week before a pattern change will start to occur. The models are showing a nice ridge expanding over the central USA next week. Of course mid-June and yes the ring of fire will be in play. No doubt the first true heat wave should start to expand later this week from the southern plains. This is nothing unusual and really a little late for the first true heat wave. There will be a push back as much of the northern,central plains along with the Ohio Valley and even the southeast have been wet over the past month or so. Yes the ridging should win out finally but next week expect to really see those lovely dew points shoot up and with temps in the upper 80's and dew points nearing 70 degrees next week will feel nasty. Can we see 90 for a couple days later next week and chances are good. Will need to see where the MCS's form next week and dive southeast. Way to early in forecasting those but with the heat expanding there could be some really nice complexes forming over the northern plains.

Great post Tim... that's a great question. Are we going to turn hot and dry for a little bit or are we going to be in a position to see MCS's dropping in from the NW if the core of the ridge is to our SW? The position of the ridge is going to be key for us. It's a bit out there in time since the ridge isn't forecast to start nudging our way until we get towards the end of next week. The GEFS has the ridge further SW then the EPS does so if you want some MCS action, the GEFS solution is what we would want to see pan out.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/06/06/stormt ... update-66/

Radar already showing isolated to scattered downpours across the area. Nothing severe of course at this time. We are awaiting on the MCS over MO and AR to get here by this evening and into the overnight for the greatest chances for rain and severe wx.

Dropped to 65 here this AM. In looking at the latest model guidance, it looks like you folks down in NKY and Cincy have best shot at heaviest rains and severe, and could see some training cells (as Tim mentioned) which could lead to over an inch or two in spots. The rain chances seem to drop the further north you go, so to say I am pessimistic about my hood would be correct. This could change of course as new model data and mesoanalysis comes online this morning.

12Z ILN Sounding has a convective temp of 80. A thin ribbon of higher dews is funneling into the Tri-state with some weak CAPE trying to develop. We are too far away from the MCS so we have no shear or helicity. So storm organization is not expected to be much until later this afternoon once we get some heating and the MCS gets a little closer. Just random spotty hit and miss type stuff for now.

12Z NAM is favoring Cincy on south for the best action. The 12Z HRRR gets more folks involved north of the river and is the guidance of choice for I-70 folks. Still though the Tri-state on south is still going to get the highest amounts. But this model is more promising looking for those to the north. Right now... I'd have to go with Mike's thinking unless the HRRR is proven to be correct.

Radar shows a decent cluster of non-severe storms to the SW of Cincy headed NE so we'll see if we can get in on a little pre game rainfall if you will.

Great Post Les and Mike. What it looks like to me is the mcs which is a nice tight little system has its own warm front ahead of it and we are starting to see activity form just north of this front. You see this in the winter with a strong clipper system and being on the northeast side is a great position to be in for precip. So over the next few hours expect that to develop and move northeast and everyone has a shot of some rain. Then we wait until later today and evening for the main show to arrive. I agree 1-2 inches can fall in some areas but I would go with .5-1inch for most unless you get under some training or a stalled thundershower. Plenty of moisture to work with and we are clearing out the dryer layer in the atmosphere as well.

That little cluster is here. It's been noisy but the heavier rains have missed me to the north and to the south. I am in the middle so one of those 10-15 min downpours is all I am seeing out of it. I'm fine with it since we have numerous chances this week.

Hearing some low distant booms here in Blue Ash. Should get a direct hit from this here!

Might be producing some small hail.

Rain here. Got my lawn cut earlier.

I hit 80 about 11:30. Got the downpour I mentioned and dropped to 72. Just a couple of hundredths here thus far.

This is what we needed to moisten up the atmosphere and get the dry layer out of here. The radar should explode later today and expect a nice dose of rain from this system.

Despite the clouds and brief rain... CAPE values are up to 2000 J/kg over the SW portion of our forecast area including SE IN and Western NKY. 1500 for everyone else. Per the visible satellite, we should get back into a little sunshine again shortly for temps to recover a bit.

0.02" here. LOL Typical