Absolute Vorticity

We have some decent 850 and 925 MB frontogensis across the Tri-state and NKY as well. Kind of an intriguing set up if we can get the atmosphere a little more unstable. Lapse rates need to steepen up more but we're getting there. 7 to 7.5C just to our SW almost up to the SW Metro counties.

Keep an eye on mesopage and radars folks as we progress thru the afternoon. I'm actually becoming interested in this...

Hello all. I have a student event going on between 6-8pm up in Lebanon. I just heard on a Dayton station that the storms should be out of the area by 6pm, but the Weather service says severe weather is possible up to 8pm. Thoughts?

Sun coming back out now here...

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 12:32 pm Hello all. I have a student event going on between 6-8pm up in Lebanon. I just heard on a Dayton station that the storms should be out of the area by 6pm, but the Weather service says severe weather is possible up to 8pm. Thoughts?

I'm going with the later time as well.

Starting to see some small cells pop across south central Indiana

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 12:59 pm Starting to see some small cells pop across south central Indiana

That's where the CU field was that I mentioned earlier. That's a good storm initiation zone for us. Gives us a bit more time for heating.

I'm getting a downpour now... out of nowhere A small cell popped up right over me.

75 at CVG and dewpoint up to 67!

Current SBCAPE per SPC site....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:20 pm Current SBCAPE per SPC site....


SBCAPE.png

I like it, I like it! We're pretty unstable now so cells are going to be popping at will like the one I just had. Watching the action approaching I-65 in IN (as I am sure most are lol)

Supercell Comp index is now at an 8 for East siders... This area may have the best spin to go along with the CAPE. EHI's of 3 as well in the same area. These cells should intensify rapidly once they get closer to our juicer airmass.

Good Afternoon and took a nice walk but you can feel the moisture in the air but the wind was a life saver in terms of heat. Starting to see the individual cells form and this should continue for a few more hours and then most likely everything will form into one line of showers and thundershowers. .

Who are the East Siders? Pardon my ignorance.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:25 pm Supercell Comp index is now at an 8 for East siders... This area may have the best spin to go along with the CAPE. EHI's of 3 as well in the same area. These cells should intensify rapidly once they get closer to our juicer airmass.

Angelika wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:34 pm Who are the East Siders? Pardon my ignorance.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 1:25 pm Supercell Comp index is now at an 8 for East siders... This area may have the best spin to go along with the CAPE. EHI's of 3 as well in the same area. These cells should intensify rapidly once they get closer to our juicer airmass.

Sorry Ang... I sometimes use my own geography. I meant the Eastern counties of the tristate. I'd say along and East of I-71 is a good reference. Clermont, Brown, Highland, and the counties in KY like Pendleton, Campbell, Robertson, Lewis, etc.

MD issued from the SPC - A watch is NOT likely to be issued to our West.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0633.html

75 / 65 as of 2pm at CVG

ALERT!!! Watch likely soon



Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western into central Ohio and adjacent
portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031757Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells may gradually develop across parts of the
middle into upper Ohio Valley through late afternoon. Some of these
may pose a risk of producing tornadoes, in addition to large hail,
including around the Dayton OH area as early as 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...A southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric speed maximum,
and associated cyclonic vorticity center to its northwest, are in
the process of migrating north-northeast of the Ohio River, toward
the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. While the boundary
layer across much of Ohio into the upper Ohio Valley is generally
cool and stable, destabilization is ongoing along and northeast of
a warm frontal zone across southwestern Ohio, in the immediate wake
of the initial perturbation.

With the primary upstream mid-level short wave trough turning east
of the middle Mississippi Valley, the warm sector of an associated
surface cyclone appears likely to continue to attempt to spread
northeastward across Ohio. Through 21-22Z, it appears that the warm
frontal zone may become a focus for increasing boundary-layer
destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm development near the
Dayton OH area. This is where latest Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings suggest that at least some backing and strengthening of
flow around 850 mb may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved
hodographs. It appears that the environment may become conducive to
supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes, in addition to
severe hail, with a tendency to gradually develop east-northeastward
into early evening.

Now we're cooking an 80% chance of a watch to be issued for AV Country:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0634.html

I can see why the SPC is hitting Dayton so hard in their discussion. That higher area of EHI has now shifted into SW Ohio along the warm front as it lifts north.

The same with the supercell comp index: Mike, Dce, Bo, and others maybe in a good spot for this one.

Our first SVR TS Warning of the day!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Franklin County in central Ohio...
Central Fayette County in central Ohio...
Northwestern Pickaway County in central Ohio...
Southeastern Madison County in central Ohio...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Washington
Court House, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 03, 2022 2:09 pm The same with the supercell comp index: Mike, Dce, Bo, and others maybe in a good spot for this one.

SigTor is around a 2 here as well. Clouds are racing across the sky...def has that severe wx feeling to it. Temp is 74.

Going to watch the radar for those cells that are by themself. These are the type that can spin up a tornado for the next few hours until we can get a more uniformed line and then mainly straight line winds but if there is any bowing you must watch. Good thing is most of the action is happening during the daylight hours.

Watching that cell to the SE of Batesville IN very closely. Showing at least some signs of rotation.