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Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm
I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.
Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino
u.anom.30.5S-5N (1).gif
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Good Morning guys and great posts on La Nina and El Nino. Funny sometimes we only look at the numbers when it comes to what is considered a La Nina or EL Nino and sure it can help but sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole truth about an event. The La Nina this season will end up being a weak event if you only look at the numbers but imo it had such control over North America this season that numbers just don't tell the whole story. Reminds me of analytics in sports and yes numbers can help but there is more to the weather than just numbers. In baseball they use it so much that it hurts the game because you are sort of throwing out the human aspect of how a certain player may feel that day and if a relief pitcher is warming up good or bad in the bullpen. Btw hit 78 here yesterday and forecast of 82 today.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:15 am
by tron777
Good morning all... cooler today as we've discussed but the warmth roars back in this weekend. No changes there. Still expecting our first 70 of the year. Then we get wet Sunday and esp on Monday into Mon night with a much stronger system moving thru. Expecting up to 2" of rain still for most folks. Heaviest band of rain is looking to be near or NW of us depending on the low track for Monday.
Another system around the 8th-9th then a bigger one around the 12th with rain and or rain / snow looking more likely right now with wind and a blast of cold air to follow for mid month. A busy period upcoming so get ready!
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm
I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.
Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino
u.anom.30.5S-5N (1).gif
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Good Morning guys and great posts on La Nina and El Nino. Funny sometimes we only look at the numbers when it comes to what is considered a La Nina or EL Nino and sure it can help but sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole truth about an event. The La Nina this season will end up being a weak event if you only look at the numbers but imo it had such control over North America this season that numbers just don't tell the whole story. Reminds me of analytics in sports and yes numbers can help but there is more to the weather than just numbers. In baseball they use it so much that it hurts the game because you are sort of throwing out the human aspect of how a certain player may feel that day and if a relief pitcher is warming up good or bad in the bullpen.
Btw hit 78 here yesterday and forecast of 82 today.
You've skipped ahead to summer!
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:30 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm
I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.
Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino
u.anom.30.5S-5N (1).gif
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Good Morning guys and great posts on La Nina and El Nino. Funny sometimes we only look at the numbers when it comes to what is considered a La Nina or EL Nino and sure it can help but sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole truth about an event. The La Nina this season will end up being a weak event if you only look at the numbers but imo it had such control over North America this season that numbers just don't tell the whole story. Reminds me of analytics in sports and yes numbers can help but there is more to the weather than just numbers. In baseball they use it so much that it hurts the game because you are sort of throwing out the human aspect of how a certain player may feel that day and if a relief pitcher is warming up good or bad in the bullpen.
Btw hit 78 here yesterday and forecast of 82 today.
You've skipped ahead to summer!
I would love summer to be this nice with no humidity. I know once summer kicks in we start out at 75 and head to 94 with tons of humidity. Good thing I will not be spending much time down here this summer plus only 16 months before South Carolina is in the rear view mirror.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:41 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:30 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am
Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino
u.anom.30.5S-5N (1).gif
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Good Morning guys and great posts on La Nina and El Nino. Funny sometimes we only look at the numbers when it comes to what is considered a La Nina or EL Nino and sure it can help but sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole truth about an event. The La Nina this season will end up being a weak event if you only look at the numbers but imo it had such control over North America this season that numbers just don't tell the whole story. Reminds me of analytics in sports and yes numbers can help but there is more to the weather than just numbers. In baseball they use it so much that it hurts the game because you are sort of throwing out the human aspect of how a certain player may feel that day and if a relief pitcher is warming up good or bad in the bullpen.
Btw hit 78 here yesterday and forecast of 82 today.
You've skipped ahead to summer!
I would love summer to be this nice with no humidity. I know once summer kicks in we start out at 75 and head to 94 with tons of humidity. Good thing I will not be spending much time down here this summer plus only 16 months before South Carolina is in the rear view mirror.
Nice! Can't wait for you to be home for good! Maybe then our luck with snow and summertime pop up storms will improve. Mr. Tim: Tear down that dome!
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:45 am
by tron777
Thru mid March, the last several GEFS runs, continue to paint a 3-4" snowfall mean over AV Country. 18Z from last night and both the 0Z and 6Z runs from today, all have a similar picture being shown. Interesting...
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:49 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:41 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:30 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:16 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Good Morning guys and great posts on La Nina and El Nino. Funny sometimes we only look at the numbers when it comes to what is considered a La Nina or EL Nino and sure it can help but sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole truth about an event. The La Nina this season will end up being a weak event if you only look at the numbers but imo it had such control over North America this season that numbers just don't tell the whole story. Reminds me of analytics in sports and yes numbers can help but there is more to the weather than just numbers. In baseball they use it so much that it hurts the game because you are sort of throwing out the human aspect of how a certain player may feel that day and if a relief pitcher is warming up good or bad in the bullpen.
Btw hit 78 here yesterday and forecast of 82 today.
You've skipped ahead to summer!
I would love summer to be this nice with no humidity. I know once summer kicks in we start out at 75 and head to 94 with tons of humidity. Good thing I will not be spending much time down here this summer plus only 16 months before South Carolina is in the rear view mirror.
Nice! Can't wait for you to be home for good! Maybe then our luck with snow and summertime pop up storms will improve. Mr. Tim: Tear down that dome!
I will try my best and my son may be heading to north central Wisconsin for his full time job starting next June. Maybe that will help us break that dome.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:02 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:49 am
I will try my best and my son may be heading to north central Wisconsin for his full time job starting next June. Maybe that will help us break that dome.
Nice! We will have a connection to the cold air then.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:03 am
by tron777
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:30 am
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:34 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:00 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:57 pm
I don't know about the snow but the cold is coming back. Major -EPO being shown on all models including Ensembles around or after the 10th. MJO is not the driver right now, it's stuck in the neutral circle and shows no signs of coming out.
Sure looks that way with the cold as it pertains to normals . MJO had no where to go but the COD with the broad area of easterlies in the PAC and dont expect it to emerge there if and when it does. Looking way ahead, The grip of LaNina and its late strengthening will probably mean that we go another year without an El nino
u.anom.30.5S-5N (1).gif
What's funny is all of the long term talk is of an incoming El Nino.
I'm already hearing of an El Nino hurricane season or by next winter.
I think I will continue to watch what you post and we'll take it slow and easy on here and probably will turn out being more correct based on your analysis.
Yea, ElNino would be a tall order at this point, imo. March and April are crucial months for an El nino to form later on. For that you need a strong WWB to put things in motion and March for sure , i don't see it. I'd even say we're in the midst of a EWB at the moment and it's effects will linger into April. Already the sub-suface warmth is in decline or has been . Waiting for it to update to see if that continues. Notice cool water upwelling also
wkxzteq_anm.gif
wkteq_xz.gif
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:43 am
by tron777
This graphic also lends support to the cooling again in all ENSO regions.
ssta_c.gif
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:42 am
by Bgoney
Sporadic flakes falling in Indian Hill
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:44 am
by tpweather
Great video by Brian this morning. Very interesting to see if a piece of energy heads south down the Atlantic and then moves northward from the gulf states. Very warm in the southeast and especially Florida which is suppose to get even warmer over the next week. Then to have another piece of energy to head southeast out of the rockies. I agree if those two pieces of energy meet this could be a very dynamic storm which is what Brian mentioned. You would have the continued cold air that is still in western and central Canada get involved plus more of a mid-May type of weather in the southeast and Florida. Will be fun to watch and my plan was to return on March 12th but it may be delayed a day or two depending on what happens with this system. Before that though another nice shot of rain in the late Saturday-late Monday period and like Brian mentioned could even see a few flurries or snow showers since the flow looks to be coming directly from the lakes. I will continue to enjoy the wonderful weather down there and really hard for me to say but I am done with the snow lol. Will be in town for about 10 days starting around the 12th or so before a nice week long vacation in Orlando.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:45 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:42 am
Sporadic flakes falling in Indian Hill
Bgoney are you sure that is flakes or those old eyes playing tricks. Btw loved your info this morning and you knowledge in that area is such a plus for this forum,
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:55 am
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:45 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:42 am
Sporadic flakes falling in Indian Hill
Bgoney are you sure that is flakes or those old eyes playing tricks. Btw loved your info this morning and you knowledge in that area is such a plus for this forum,
Lol, I am due for a complete eye exam next month , so you never know
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:59 am
by Bgoney
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:55 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:45 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:42 am
Sporadic flakes falling in Indian Hill
Bgoney are you sure that is flakes or those old eyes playing tricks. Btw loved your info this morning and you knowledge in that area is such a plus for this forum,
Lol, I am due for a complete eye exam next month , or was that a memory exam?, so you never know
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:21 am
by House of Cards
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:42 am
Sporadic flakes falling in Indian Hill
just brought my recycle rolloff back to the house, same here in Colerain Twp.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:21 am
by tron777
3" of rain now from the 12Z GFS at CVG coming up for Sun / Mon. Yikes!
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:24 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:21 am
3" of rain now from the 12Z GFS at CVG coming up for Sun / Mon. Yikes!
I saw this run had the heaviest right over the area plus a little snow just to the north as well.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:13 pm
by wxnut
I can confirm Bgoney's eyes are good. Very light snow here in Fairfield as well.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:16 pm
by tron777
Been hanging around 40 with cloudy skies here the majority of the day.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:08 pm
by Bgoney
Thanks for the reports guys , Tim almost had me convinced I was losing what's left of my mind
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:44 pm
by tron777
2.32" on the 12Z Euro today so odds are increasing for us to get 2" plus out of it. Some of you may even get 3" or so. don't be surprised! Monday is when the worst of the rains come versus Sunday.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:50 pm
by tpweather
80 and bright sunshine with a nice light breeze. Will be grilling this evening with a few adult beverages. Little cooler on Friday but then over the weekend beautiful weather returns.
Re: March 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:56 pm
by tpweather
Looks like the models just miss a connection with the two pieces of energy for late next week. Does get together over the east coast which could provide a big noreaster. Still over a week away and the pieces of energy look rather strong so something to watch after the early week rains.