Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?

[tpweather]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.

I def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.

Les I believe their may be enough ice for someone to have a ice warning. Always believed that just because of the dense cold air. Upper levels warmer so liquid is the main type. If this system stays weaker and further south like the latest Nam shows then Thursday can become an ice skating rink. I also believe the system today is moving a little faster and maybe this helps pushing the cold front a little further south but those darn App mountains always like to throw a road block when fronts head their way.

You're going heavier on the ice then me. You need some pretty heavy amounts for a rare ice storm warning.

Not going to be widespread but somebody will probably get enough rain to warrant that before the storm is over.

[tron777]

You can see the location of the cold front here:

ColdFront.png

[tron777]

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
While the threat for showers lingers until the cold front
crosses later this evening, widespread showers have ended for
all but the far southeast and the drying trend will continue
this late afternoon. Given this, the flood watch has been
cancelled. Cloudy skies and a turn in the winds to west and
then northwest will be the rule tonight with cold advection
pushing overnight lows to the upper 20s in the northwest, mid
30s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A continued rush of cold, dry air will keep cloudy skies and
limit high temperatures to just reaching the low 30s in the
north to low 40s in the south. While the flow continues to be
shifting northeast overnight and lightening, cold air will
continue to infiltrate the region under a blanket of cloud
cover. Lows will drop to the mid 20s along and north of the I-70
corridor, to the low 30s over Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures will rise some on Thursday, so any wintry mix
early on will transition to a chance of rain/snow. Highs will
range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.

A fast-moving s/wv is still poised to move quickly west to east
across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. This feature
will perturb a wave of low pressure which will track northeast
through the middle and upper Ohio Valley. As it does, a decent
shot of moisture and lift on a fairly strong low level
jet/convergence zone will spread pcpn quickly northeast from
late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Pcpn will then
continue overnight, eventually tapering off from west to east on
Friday morning. Models have trended a little warmer not only
near the surface but aloft as well. As a result, the wintry mix
zone is now expected to be along/near the I-70 corridor with
mainly snow across far west central Ohio. Farther south, mainly
rain will occur Thursday night, with heavier rain possible
across our southeast zones. Snow/sleet accumulations along/near
the I-70 corridor will be an inch or less, with perhaps one to
two tenths of ice accretion. Farther north, some mix is
possible, but snow is expected to be the main p-type. Snow
accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches. Overall, this looks
like an advisory winter situation in terms of impacts. Will
continue to make mention of all hazards in the HWO. Lows
Thursday night will range from the lower 20s northwest to near
40 far southeast. Not much rise is expected on Friday with post
CAA air. Highs on Friday will range from near 30 northwest to
the lower 40s southeast.

[tron777]

ALERT: The Ohio River at Cincinnati is now expected to crest at 54 feet Sat afternoon around 4pm.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=ccno1

[tron777]

18Z GFS craps out the first wave Thurs morning and tracks the low into SE KY for round 2. Frz rain and sleet north of Cincy and I-70 Snow north of there. Rain for me and to the south, yippie skippie.

[tpweather]

ALERT: The Ohio River at Cincinnati is now expected to crest at 54 feet Sat afternoon around 4pm.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=ccno1

Of course that will likely change as more rain due upstream. Last week it was supposed to crest today at 49 feet and that was a miss. They do this every spring season and whatever model they are using to predict the crest especially when more rain is on the way they need to toss that sucker in the river.

[Trevor]

@Les—random, but you died in my dream last night. Glad to see that you are in fact still alive. Woke up as I was typing a message about your passing on the forum

[Trevor]

I swear it wasn’t wishful thinking

[tron777]

@Les—random, but you died in my dream last night. Glad to see that you are in fact still alive. Woke up as I was typing a message about your passing on the forum

What the hell??? I don't know what to say.

[tron777]

I can see if it is a metaphor for this storm dying from a snow perspective, but outside of that, man.. that is messed up lol

[Trevor]

@Les—random, but you died in my dream last night. Glad to see that you are in fact still alive. Woke up as I was typing a message about your passing on the forum

What the hell??? I don't know what to say.

[tron777]

Disco died in the 70s

[tron777]

Anywho.... Trev's LSD Tripping aside... back to the weather and you guys know my call, we'll see what happens.

[dce]

This feels like a strange storm. Not sure what to expect in the Dayton area. Just has a different feel to it. I don't know, probably just me.

[tron777]

Front has passed IND and BGM now in Indiana.

[Bgoney]

Anywho.... Trev's LSD Tripping aside... back to the weather and you guys know my call, we'll see what happens.

lol, i'm speechless, seems Trev has a serious Night Fever, get well soon.

Yea , no changes from my morning thoughts after some wobbling in the models today . Still same possible accretion amounts and snow sleet amounts for I70. Will of course revise in the mornning if necessary

[Trevor]

Anywho.... Trev's LSD Tripping aside... back to the weather and you guys know my call, we'll see what happens.

lol, i'm speechless, seems Trev has a serious Night Fever, get well soon.

Yea , no changes from my morning thoughts after some wobbling in the models today . Still same possible accretion amounts and snow sleet amounts for I70. Will of course revise in the mornning if necessary

[tron777]

Cold front now working into our western counties. Once it passes your location, temps will tumble.

[Bgoney]

Not much change for thurs/fri event. Pre-dawn light frozen precip for thursday morning could bring a glaze of ice. Our 3 to 4 days of above freezing temps should keep things from getting out of hand on the roads except of course elevated surfaces for morning commute. Round 2 still looks the same also , Freezing rain changing to rain south of river with .10" or less of ice. North of river up to I70 , sleet /freezing rain combo and possibly changing to rain and back to FRZR for some counties . Still go with a range of .10" to .25" FRZR Accretions possible in this north of river corridor with an inch or so of sleet/snow near I70. Total qpf for AVland in the .50" to 1.00" range

Obviously not buying the EU surface temps , the mid-level temps we know , fold like a deck of cards to the warm tongue, but surface temps as Tim has mentioned are a stubborn lot , especially with that 1040 high looming over-top. Even if the temps get that warm , still think the .10" of ice can be met before changeover, so that's why the range

[tron777]

The Euro also has way less QPF too then the other models in addition to the warmer surface temps. If the Euro is right, some minor issues possible Thurs morning then it's over, just plain rain. NAM is coldest w/ surface temp[s then GFS. But even with the GFS you still get plain rain out of it. NAM is even boarder line so I like the call Bgoney has been posting. Can't argue with it at all. The forecast is clearly what the data is showing.

[tron777]

The beginnings of the Thurs morning wave... it will be weakening as it moves in here of course.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0176.html

[tron777]

29 here so the 32 degree line is made it into our SE CWA at this time. Nice 1044 MB high building into SD too. 925s are solidly below freezing. Surface is too. 850 MB temps still +5 at CVG so it would not be snow even if we were seeing precip right now. Lot of warm air in the upper levels. Models are seeing this well IMO.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice crisp morning outside. Les and Bgoney forecasts look good. My main concern locally is Thursday Morning. Sometimes very small precip events that include frz/drz can cause problems just because folks believe the roads are good. Probably only be until mid-morning as the solar radiation does its job. Indy still looks like the problem area imo and how much precip gets that far north especially later Thursday. Concerning the Disco reference and it died in the 70's but imo was never really alive and put that music together with the clothes of that day and it was a dark few years in the country lol.

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/02/23/snowta ... pdate-223/

[tron777]

9Z SREF keeps CVG with frz rain thru about 2pm Thurs then rain. A little more QPF too, 0.10" before going over to rain. HAO does not change until late afternoon and DAY never does change. CMH does by the evening hours.