Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:37 am 00z Euro continues to be the coldest of the models, and also a best-case scenario since we don't see much in the way of ice. Widespread heavy accumulations of snow. I am a skeptical of this model not showing much ice, but we'll see how future runs handle things.

Agree , i dont see that wide of a snow shield from this setup, atm . If Indy gets heavy snow , it sure as heck wont be heavy snow in central Kentucky

Agree 100p/c and yes there will be an area with heavy snow on the northwest side but this kind of storm is one that produces lots of liquid form because cold air is rushing in behind the system instead of the cold already in place.

Removed my post because I thought it was misleading.

NAM ends with a tilt towards the GFS

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:44 am NAM ends with a tilt towards the GFS

Perhaps pointless, but extrapolating from the end of the run is giving me big time ice vibes for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Edit: I added frame hour 84 to this post. Look at all of that moisture to the southwest as temps begin to fall. Pretty impressive.

Nam is really showing the first wave quite nicely this far out. You can see the warmth ahead of the wave and then you get a little break behind the wave. The timing of these waves are important and you need a little space to allow the colder air to work south and east. If the time between waves are in a shorter duration then the main winter weather is northwest but if you can get a nice period behind the first wave to allow the cold to sink further south and east then we are in business.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:04 am Nam is really showing the first wave quite nicely this far out. You can see the warmth ahead of the wave and then you get a little break behind the wave. The timing of these waves are important and you need a little space to allow the colder air to work south and east. If the time between waves are in a shorter duration then the main winter weather is northwest but if you can get a nice period behind the first wave to allow the cold to sink further south and east then we are in business.

GReat point Tim, It would be a classic two wave progression

12z GFS is rolling now.

12Z RGEM at 84 hours...

Some things to watch for on this run of the GFS will be to see if it continues to trend colder as it has done in each run since 06z yesterday morning. As it stands now and as I said earlier today, the GFS is a worst-case scenario for impacts with crippling amounts of freezing rain.

However the models put it together ...Wed (esp north of I-70), and Thurs look like a migraine set up.

My dad has a trip planned for just himself to Anderson, IN for Thurs to take care of some matters with his sister at her house.

Have a strong feeling he'll have to shelve that endeavor until a later date.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 32 this afternoon.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:43 am However the models put it together ...Wed (esp north of I-70), and Thurs look like a migraine set up.

My dad has a trip planned for just himself to Anderson, IN for Thurs to take care of some matters with his sister at her house.

Have a strong feeling he'll have to shelve that endeavor until a later date.

Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 32 this afternoon.

Yeah that's probably not going to happen.

Out to hour 93. Looking like this is going to be another very icy run.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:02 am Out to hour 93. Looking like this is going to be another very icy run.

Yes, but it looks like crews have a small window of chance to get out and carpet bomb salt on roadways and properties after the rain??????

Slower with surface temps reaching freezing mark by several hours

Here's the GFS freezing rain accumulation. Big time ice storm for the tri-state, though the heaviest amounts shifted just to the north of the city on this run.

GFS with 1.7” ice in my hood

Storm-centered GFS loop

Not as bad for the ice for NKY but still disruptive. A tad warmer on thermals and temps. Otherwise not monster differences, but minor ones that do make a difference in our sensible weather. Someone in AV Country could get the rare ice storm warning if the GFS and CMC are correct.

QPF in 3 hour increments at CVG. All rain Wed and Wed night so no need to post that. But you can pick out when the changeover to ice is with 850s and 540s above winter time critical thicknesses, but 2M temps are below zero.

How I am interpreting the data is around an inch of frz rain, but with temps, I'd say a half inch of ice accumulation would be possible. That's not great and isolated power outages possible. Then on top of that, a third of an inch of the QPF goes to sleet , then an inch or so of snow falls on top. What a mess!

For Dayton it is an all out disaster!
2" QPF falls as frz rain. About a quarter inch of sleet, then with ratios... probably 4-5"+ of snow.

CMC is holding steady and maybe a tad further south with the ice. This is not a good run if you hate ice.

For marketing this coming week I'd suggest Mon and / or Tues.

Columbus
Even worse... 2.5" falls of frz rain, 1/2" of sleet couple inches of snow.

CMC is sleet and snow storm NW of I-71 and a major ice storm SE of I-71 for Thursday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:42 am Columbus

Code: Select all

THU 12Z 03-FEB  -0.7     2.9    1022      95      98    0.15     564     546    
THU 15Z 03-FEB  -1.7     2.7    1023      96      98    0.22     564     546    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -1.3     4.0    1019      97      99    0.50     564     549    
THU 21Z 03-FEB  -1.8     2.2    1016      96     100    0.56     563     550    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.3     1.9    1016      95      99    0.92     562     549    
FRI 03Z 04-FEB  -6.2     0.5    1019      93      99    0.31     561     547    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.6    -2.8    1022      94     100    0.47     560     543    
FRI 09Z 04-FEB  -9.2    -3.9    1024      91      99    0.08     558     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.0    -6.8    1028      91      97    0.09     557     535 

Even worse... 2.5" falls of frz rain, 1/2" of sleet couple inches of snow.

thanks for posting these.