Wave Along Arctic Front - Wed Evening 1/19/22

[tpweather]

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/19/snowta ... pdate-119/

Great snow talk from Brian once again. He mentioned everything we talked about on here over the past few days. I agree the flash freezing is more of the problem than snow locally. Matter of fact a little snow will help somewhat for traction. Next week he talks about the clippers but also how a couple of systems are trying to dance but just to early to see that will happen but no doubt the pattern shows a better shot of a bigger storm. Then he mentions a warm up towards mid-Feb and a little to early in guessing if this is a change to an early spring or just a couple of weeks with milder than normal weather. Plenty of time to look at the pattern later next week.

[tron777]

CVG - 0.04" from the 12Z NAM
Nothing to the north of there.

Code: Select all

FGX

WED  7P 19-JAN   3.6    -0.2    1018     100      96    0.22     557     543    
THU  1A 20-JAN  -2.1    -2.7    1022      88      93    0.19     554     537    
THU  7A 20-JAN  -6.5    -7.5    1029      79      57    0.01     553     531 

[cloudy72]

12z NAM looks further south than earlier runs....now most is even south of I-64.

[tpweather]

12z NAM looks further south than earlier runs....now most is even south of I-64.

Would not shock me as the cold front means business and when the cold is dense it can be a bully

[MJSun]

LOU and JKL offices have a winter weather advisory out for this event for anywhere from 1-4" of snow. ILN so far just an HWO along and SE of I-71. I imagine an advisory will come out tonight for at least South / East counties. We'll see! Always on the cut off in our forecast area.

Always the bridesmaid...

[Bgoney]

Beautiful day, 50 is doable

[tron777]

Beautiful day, 50 is doable

Wondering if the warmth could help play into a further north solution? In my mind for a few days now, I've always thought today would be warmer ahead of the front. It might not impact a thing for the result locally. Just talking out loud lol

[tron777]

12Z GooFuS:

GooFuS.png

[tron777]

Big long write up from the boys:

A cold front will quickly shift southeast into the forecast
area this afternoon. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will
tap into relatively warm, moist air from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Temperatures will rise well into the 40s in most
locations. At the same time, a mid- level disturbance will bring
precipitation to northern Kentucky into south central Ohio by
the afternoon hours. This precipitation will start as rain. The
front will drop through the forecast area by late afternoon.

Models are in step-lock agreement with the llvl thicknesses
supporting snow at the same time surface temps drop below freezing.
Very minor and subtle differences in timing frontal passage but the
consensus has the front located at 00Z along the I-71 corridor from
Louisville to Wilmington and then jogs northeast from WCH to
Lancaster to Zanesville. The speed of the front increases this
evening as models are putting the changeover line either through or
almost through the CWA by 03Z, with a consensus nearer the FV3
solution which bisects Lewis and eastern Scioto counties with the
thermal changeover.

Temperatures will be advection-driven so the model guidance should
be hard to improve upon. Bias correction to guidance in every case
tonight is to warm by a degree or two, particularly in the
southeastern half of the CWA, with little to no change in the
northwest half. It`s worth the note that the 06Z GFS had mid teens
in a bulls-eye over Lewis/Scioto counties with upper teens
elsewhere, then bias corrected the northwest 1/2 of CWA to near 15
and slightly less of a drop for the mid sections of the CWA, keeping
the 15 or so over Lewis/Scioto. This tells me the GFS is keeping the
earlier snowpack in play over this section which seems unrepresented
in the remaining guidance.

Will forecast the mid teens in the southeast for lows and match it
closer to the northwest. This matches well with the 00Z FV3BC which
is what I will use given the above thought processes. Ultimately it
only drops about 2 degrees across the board from current forecast,
slightly less in the northwest and slightly more in the southeast.

Regarding weather - will not change current forecast as yet and look
to see how later model runs depict the intersection of the moisture
and the thermal changeover this evening. Expect to lean towards the
hires models and hourly solutions but do not expect any wholesale
changes in either direction. Areal placement should stay similar
with the axis of highest snow of 2" or better confined to
Lewis/Scioto counties. A half inch or less will continue to stretch
from southeast IN through the Cincy metro area to ILN, Chillicothe,
and Hocking counties. No snow is expected in Connersville to Dayton
to Dublin to Johnstown and Utica in Licking County.

Cold air advection behind the front will continue through the
evening with temperatures falling quickly through the 30s. These
falling temperatures lead to a difficult snowfall forecast in
the south, as event- total amounts will depend heavily on exact
transition time from rain to snow. Went heavy on the high-
resolution guidance for PoPs. Forecast sounding analysis shows
good lift across the DGZ... though it is in a somewhat shallow
layer. Based on current temperature and QPF grids, forecast
yields 1-2" snowfall totals in the south over a short span from
this evening until just after midnight. Depending on mesoscale
banding, which is a clear possibility with frontogenetical
forcing, there may be local amounts near 3 inches in the far
southeast with the highest QPF.

[tron777]

Beautiful day, 50 is doable

Wondering if the warmth could help play into a further north solution? In my mind for a few days now, I've always thought today would be warmer ahead of the front. It might not impact a thing for the result locally. Just talking out loud lol

48 now at CVG

[tron777]

12Z RGEM:

RGEM.png

[tron777]

12Z CMC:

CMC.png

[tron777]

Some of the radar echoes maybe virga but I like the trends of scattered snow over MO, ILL and Central IN.

[Bgoney]

Thinking about buying some land in Central Kentucky and building a ski lodge and trails

[tpweather]

Thinking about buying some land in Central Kentucky and building a ski lodge and trails

I love this ideal. Berea is beautiful and some lovely hills plus my guess land is not that expensive. Of course the day I buy land down there 5 straight winters of all rain while CVG gets clobbered.

[tron777]

Thinking about buying some land in Central Kentucky and building a ski lodge and trails

I love this ideal. Berea is beautiful and some lovely hills plus my guess land is not that expensive. Of course the day I buy land down there 5 straight winters of all rain while CVG gets clobbered.

I love the Rockcastle area!

[tron777]

51 degrees now imby... A nice day actually!

[tron777]

12Z UKIE - 10:1 Ratio

UKIE.png

[cloudy72]

48 here in my hood! Enjoy my friends (those who like the warmth that is LOL), because winter returns tonight.

[tron777]

Temps are dropping across Central IN behind the front. Down to 40 at IND and below freezing in Western IN now.

[tron777]

CVG's at 51 now... wow!

[Bgoney]

Yikes , just looked at all the 12z , looks like the EU wasn't kidding around


Made it to 50 here before the clouds rolled in , 49 now

[Bgoney]

Showers to the north of the river just entering SW Indiana needs to hold together for our chance with the forecast

[cloudy72]

Only in the teens across northern Illinois currently....

[Bgoney]

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