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Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:36 pm
by Trevor
Going to maintain my 1-3” metro, 3-6” E/SE of town forecast. Don’t see any reason for that to change at the moment. DO need the bleeding to stop though haha!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:37 pm
by jlcarey1
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am
Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.
This is what I'm looking forward to! Living in Charlotte, NC now and we never see any good action. Very rarely. So I'm excited to see how this turns out!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:39 pm
by Bgoney
Yikes, just catching up, bad day at the model office. Reading all the posts of what or why things turned a bit sour , and then all the things that need to happen to turn the tide , its a kick in the teeth reminder how hard it is to get a descent snow for cvgland. 4 things can be perfect but one bad apple can upset the cart. When was the last time we really had an Apps runner? Stilll an event for a portiion of posters and not ready to stick a fork in it just yet. It still is fascinating to watch unfold
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:43 pm
by mikeyp
I will take anything at this point! Still fun to watch how this storm will take shape! I am going with up to an inch for my area but that could change!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:47 pm
by tron777
The 1010 MB low over us is transferring is energy to what is soon to become the big ocean storm by tomorrow. In the meantime, the upper low for our system is onshore along the WA / OR boarder.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:47 pm
by Trevor
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:39 pm
Yikes, just catching up, bad day at the model office. Reading all the posts of what or why things turned a bit sour , and then all the things that need to happen to turn the tide , its a kick in the teeth reminder how hard it is to get a descent snow for cvgland. 4 things can be perfect but one bad apple can upset the cart. When was the last time we really had an Apps runner? Stilll an event for a portiion of posters and not ready to stick a fork in it just yet. It still is fascinating to watch unfold
Great post! We have several posters from eastern Ohio on here, as well as from parts of the country. Obviously this is a heavily-weighted Cincinnati forum, we still have several people on board from other areas. Hence why I still started a thread even when models began trending away from Cincinnati. High impact storm for many.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:49 pm
by tron777
jlcarey1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:37 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am
Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.
This is what I'm looking forward to! Living in Charlotte, NC now and we never see any good action. Very rarely. So I'm excited to see how this turns out!
I didn't know you all had moved down there? Awesome Jess! Enjoy this one. Could be some good frz rain down your way with it. You want the southern track to remain more on the snow side.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:57 pm
by jlcarey1
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:49 pm
jlcarey1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:37 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am
Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.
This is what I'm looking forward to! Living in Charlotte, NC now and we never see any good action. Very rarely. So I'm excited to see how this turns out!
I didn't know you all had moved down there? Awesome Jess! Enjoy this one. Could be some good frz rain down your way with it. You want the southern track to remain more on the snow side.
Yep, been down here just over 4 years now! First year we moved here we got 3" and it shut the entire city down for like 3 days. lol So yeah, we don't get much of the good stuff here. So far, everyone is saying it sounds like going to be a big mixed bag, maybe a lot of snow, but more likely some snow with lots of freezing rain, some ice accumulation, etc. Will just be happy to see any kind of action instead of just rain. ha!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:01 pm
by BookNerdCarp
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:06 pm
by tpweather
So far I have been in Greenville since June of 2019 and so far 1/10 of an inch has fallen. I was there when it happened on a Friday Morning and saw it snow. Those folks really get worked up with the weather and have had furniture companies cancel a delivery because of wind and we are just talking 25-35 miles winds.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:08 pm
by tron777
jlcarey1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:57 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:49 pm
jlcarey1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:37 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am
Major ice potential in the typical cold wedge zone of NE Georgia, western South Carolina up through the Piedmont of North Carolina.
This is what I'm looking forward to! Living in Charlotte, NC now and we never see any good action. Very rarely. So I'm excited to see how this turns out!
I didn't know you all had moved down there? Awesome Jess! Enjoy this one. Could be some good frz rain down your way with it. You want the southern track to remain more on the snow side.
Yep, been down here just over 4 years now! First year we moved here we got 3" and it shut the entire city down for like 3 days. lol So yeah, we don't get much of the good stuff here. So far, everyone is saying it sounds like going to be a big mixed bag, maybe a lot of snow, but more likely some snow with lots of freezing rain, some ice accumulation, etc. Will just be happy to see any kind of action instead of just rain. ha!
I had no idea you all had moved.
Hope everything is going well.
Good luck down there with this system!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:12 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS Mean thru 90 hours: Mike your Mom's hood looks good again.
EPSMEan.png
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:16 pm
by cloudy72
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:47 pm
Great post! We have several posters from eastern Ohio on here, as well as from parts of the country. Obviously this is a heavily-weighted Cincinnati forum, we still have several people on board from other areas. Hence why I still started a thread even when models began trending away from Cincinnati. High impact storm for many.
Very true - and should have been more specific. Just throwing in the towel for my local hood.
Def agree on a high impact storm for folks from near ATL all the way up the coast.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:23 pm
by tpweather
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:16 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:47 pm
Great post! We have several posters from eastern Ohio on here, as well as from parts of the country. Obviously this is a heavily-weighted Cincinnati forum, we still have several people on board from other areas. Hence why I still started a thread even when models began trending away from Cincinnati. High impact storm for many.
Very true - and should have been more specific. Just throwing in the towel for my local hood.
Def agree on a high impact storm for folks from near ATL all the way up the coast.
Hey Mike, no throwing in the towel unless we are within 2 days of the event. So only after midnight tonight will towel throwing be allowed. lol
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:25 pm
by cloudy72
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:23 pm
Hey Mike, no throwing in the towel unless we are within 2 days of the event. So only after midnight tonight will towel throwing be allowed. lol
Ha Ha - yeah like I said the 00z suite could bury us all, then I can hop back on the wagon
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:27 pm
by tron777
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:48 pm
by young pup
Still in the game for a couple of inches of snow here. That I can do.
Unless it continues to move more east.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:48 pm
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:12 pm
12Z EPS Mean thru 90 hours: Mike your Mom's hood looks good again.
Yeah this will be two hits in a row there!
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:59 pm
by Bgoney
That EPS mean matches up with the GEFs pretty well. Its been a I71 and points SE event for quite a few runs(days) now.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:35 pm
by cloudy72
Oh lord - 18z NAM is further north again - isn't it? LOL
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:37 pm
by tron777
Wow.. Low is in Eastern TN again. Transfer is going to take longer on this run.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:38 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:37 pm
Wow.. Low is in Eastern TN again. Transfer is going to take longer on this run.
I believe this is more in line of what should happen. That last run just looked wrong imo. Showed a strengthening system in the gulf area but moving southeast for quite awhile. Lets see later runs but a more northerly trend should happen.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:40 pm
by fyrfyter
Let's play the model cave game... which model will cave to which and when... I still think we get NAM'ed again...
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:41 pm
by cloudy72
18z NAM runs always make me nervous.....AMP NAM time.
Re: January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:42 pm
by Bgoney
Another good run for I71 and points SE
