Absolute Vorticity

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:52 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:48 am 12z HRRR FWIW. I wouldn’t put much stock into this just trying to look at everything.
IMG_1250.png

Wish it went 4 more frames to see what backside deform band does. Overall not a bad run, freezing drizzle in the lull.

Way outside of the model consensus. Although a lot of times WAA is way underdone in regards to precip types but not by that much. I’d put more stock into this if more models trend that way.

What I have seen with the HRRR especially more than 30 hours away it has different ideals and some yes pan out but will use this model more on Sunday because then it does tend to capture smaller details as the storm is happening.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:53 am

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:52 am

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:48 am 12z HRRR FWIW. I wouldn’t put much stock into this just trying to look at everything.
IMG_1250.png

Wish it went 4 more frames to see what backside deform band does. Overall not a bad run, freezing drizzle in the lull.

Way outside of the model consensus. Although a lot of times WAA is way underdone in regards to precip types but not by that much. I’d put more stock into this if more models trend that way.

Agree, you know way more than me haha.

Good morning all! I have not posted in quite a while but thought I would wish everyone in the Cincy area good luck on this one! Looks like the best chance for a substantial snowfall in several years over there. I sold my plow business two winters ago and don't have to monitor things as closely anymore but I am looking forward to a good snow here in SE Indiana. Looks like we MIGHT avoid mixing issues in Greensburg. Sending good vibes your way!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:56 am What I have seen with the HRRR especially more than 30 hours away it has different ideals and some yes pan out but will use this model more on Sunday because then it does tend to capture smaller details as the storm is happening.

Agree 110 percent. Unless nam follows suit

Which I can already tell 12z nam is not going to follow 12z Hrrr

So far the Nam at 21 hours is holding steady. Will start looking at this model for those heavier showers and thundershowers in the south central states. You want some of these to occur and push deeper moisture further north but you do not want an west to east line that goes on for many may miles as this can really decrease totals. I still believe we are good on this feature but it always needs to be in the equation

Surface low is ever so slightly north compared to 0z

Southeast ridge is noticeably stronger at 24

Snow starting up a little sooner on 12Z NAM. Late morning now instead of midday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:07 am Snow starting up a little sooner on 12Z NAM. Late morning now instead of midday.

North with the precip shield also

Butler , warren Montgomery counties will be bullseye

Sleet gets into Cincy / CVG by Sun evening with all snow still for the areas Alex mentioned. Seems to be the ongoing theme this morning.

That northeast wind in Columbus is making it hard for the snow to fly.

Dry slot scaring me

Even at CVG, a solid 6-8" falls before we changeover to sleet. Sunday afternoon is going to be fun!

Just want to add about the northeast wind and this will be doing battle with the warmer air advection and this could be doing battle right over the local area late Sunday into early Monday morning. For folks in the Columbus area that want snow you want those winds to push further east but folks in the Cincy area would love keep those around longer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:15 am Just want to add about the northeast wind and this will be doing battle with the warmer air advection and this could be doing battle right over the local area late Sunday into early Monday morning. For folks in the Columbus area that want snow you want those winds to push further east but folks in the Cincy area would love keep those around longer.

Great post Tim! That is why the couple rows of counties north of where the sleet transition zone is will get destroyed!

Nam is looking great and just northeast of Nashville at hour 42 heading towards southeast Kentucky. This way you have little chance of a dry slot locally. I-64 in central Kentucky could be such a mess with a good 2-4 inches of snow followed by ice. My guess some major roads in that area will be shut down later Sunday

As alluded too earlier, the NAM does get the dry slot in here despite the low still down in TN so if the model has the low depiction correct, I don't think the dry slot would come that far north esp from a 1003 MB low. Sub 1000, then it would certainly be different. IMO we could see a short period of freezing drizzle. It doesn't last long and the dry slot ends up filling back in on Monday and we do see the wrap around snows region wide to tack on a few more inches.

My biggest worry is a period of heavy sleet overnight Sunday and the reason is shoveling sleet is brutal. Heavy wet snow is not easy but sleet is horrible. The wraparound snow Monday will become fluffy in nature as the day goes on plus ratios will go up from 10-1 to maybe 12-1 or even 15-1.

Les I agree about the dry slot 100p/c if this track is correct

The two biggest questions for us is the sleet / snow line and wrap around on Monday. That will make or break who can get into that 8-12"+ range. The rest of the storm, I think the models have a good handle on for us locally.

EDIT: We're on the same page here Tim!

Mon afternoon into the evening will be another fun period if the wrap around snows occur as most guidance expects. NAM looking good in that regard.

The Gulf is opening up for business with moisture streaming into TX in the mid and upper levels.

Not having a bully like we see often with these and talking about a coastal low is no doubt helping us in getting more snow for a longer period. If there was a stronger southeast ridge getting the southerly flow up the Carolina coast would no doubt have a decent low forming. That is not happening and this keeps the main low on the west side of the mountains for a much longer period. Yes sooner of later the energy is moving across the mountains but once it does the system is just moving out to sea.

Les we have yourself,Bgoney an myself on the same page. Need to write this down for history because it may never happen again lol