Absolute Vorticity

Been a while since I looked at Enso and Lanina did a quick disappearing act, good riddance. Look at that -PDO though . El Niño and -PDOs don’t usually go together if I remember right, we shall see

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:13 am Been a while since I looked at Enso and Lanina did a quick disappearing act, good riddance. Look at that -PDO though . El Niño and -PDOs don’t usually go together if I remember right, we shall see



36EC60F0-591F-412A-AE5B-006E3DBB5FA9.png

Two areas that I noticed right away was the cold waters off the pacific coast which makes sense and how warm the GOM is compared to normal and once again that area was not touched much by cold air this season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:42 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:13 am Been a while since I looked at Enso and Lanina did a quick disappearing act, good riddance. Look at that -PDO though . El Niño and -PDOs don’t usually go together if I remember right, we shall see



36EC60F0-591F-412A-AE5B-006E3DBB5FA9.png

Two areas that I noticed right away was the cold waters off the pacific coast which makes sense and how warm the GOM is compared to normal and once again that area was not touched much by cold air this season.

Agreed... you can clearly see where the trough / ridge was persistent over the winter per the cooler SST's along the west coast and the warmer SST's in the Gulf and East Coast.

50 here today. Major static electricity day. Dew is 10 here. At CVG, 49 right now, dew of 8.

Snowfall, at least accumulating snowfall is it done for the 2022-2023 season? That system that showed brief promise early next week... it is looking to stay well SE due to the next system already on its heals due in for the 24-25th, is acting like a kicker system so it cannot gain any northward latitude or strength. The shortwave is flatter and not as amplified. I'd consider that threat dead.

After that, I see nothing but rain systems but the OP 18Z GFS tries to bait you in around the 26th instead with a nice high pressing in some cold to the NW and a deepening southern slider thru the TN Valley. Probably more fantasy BS.

MJO is in record setting Phase 8 territory per the Aussies as of 3/13. Models have it going into Phase 1 then weakening. Are models weakening the MJO too quickly? Interesting to watch., Too bad we didn't have this back in Jan or Feb. Winter would have sure been different. But we are getting it now going into Spring. If not snow then maybe severe weather? Not sure what will ultimately happen here but in the next 10-14 days, which takes us almost to the end of March, I see no accumulating snow for us.

We can get snow in April. We've had it recently. But climo really drops off by then as you all obviously know. All a snow weenie like me, or anyone else can do is hope for a fluke storm otherwise, let the 9-10 month wait... again.... begin. *Sigh*

Good morning! 35 here and at CVG. A milder day in that 55 to 60 degree range with increasing clouds. Bulk of the rain should hold off until the overnight hours. It will end Friday morning with temps to start your St. Patrick's Day in the 50s. Temps will fall into the 30s by evening. Rain will shut off for evening plans but the wind will be an issue for anything outdoors. I'd probably have a party or go to an indoor party this year.

Ugh... what a horrible statistic. Like us sports fans always say... there's always next year! Or in this case, next winter season. We should have an El Nino so we'll see how things look later on this year as we always do. We should have continued rain and t-storm events to track this spring as well as the tropical season coming up in a few months. Weather never stops and never does AV!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:01 am E1324CFE-7EF7-4F4A-9536-6BBCFE9BD314.jpeg
E1EEF39E-9CD3-4F13-A013-DAFD583C6AB9.jpeg

A horrible stretch from 1949-1954. Even worse than what we are seeing now. Gives me hope that things will indeed average out over the long haul.

59 degrees now... a nice afternoon! Going with 1/4 to 1/2" with our next system for rainfall amounts. Wind gusts tomorrow after the front passes 30-40 mph is my call. Temps in the 50s falling thru the 30s and eventually 3 or 4 nights in the teens / 20s are upcoming. Highs this weekend in the 30s warming into the 40s and 50s again next week. I'd say a day or two in the 60s also occurs Wed and Thurs. The next system looks to be a repeat of the current one towards the end of next week. We have 2 more system to finished March. 26-27th then towards the end of the month. Both are looking cutterish to me. Euro now running...

Nothing for snow lovers to report on the Euro. 61 though as of 4pm.

Does this mean a snow storm to open up April?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:39 pm Does this mean a snow storm to open up April?

I've been hanging in there all winter long waiting on that big weenie snow storm or a prolonged snowy spell. Ugh!
Well, there's always next year, LOL LOL!!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:39 pm Does this mean a snow storm to open up April?

I've been hanging in there all winter long waiting on that big weenie snow storm or a prolonged snowy spell. Ugh!
Well, there's always next year, LOL LOL!!

That's pretty much where we're at Joe barring some miracle.

...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

Gusty winds of 35-45 mph are possible this evening during the
onset of precipitation between 8pm and midnight. Secure loose
outdoor objects. Be aware of strong gusts while driving,
especially in high profile vehicles.

Ski lifts are buried out west there’s so much snow at the resorts. Many have broken or will break record snow totals , with another AR event on the way
4 and 500 inch amounts are common and dozens of resorts report joining the 600” club and a few 700 inch totals are on the way. Here’s a few amounts posted yesterday



Dodge Ridge, CA – 660″

Palisades Tahoe, CA – 662″

Alta, UT – 681″


Sugar Bowl, CA – 695″

Brighton, UT – 699″

Mammoth, CA – 784″
Boreal, CA – 630″

China Peak, CA – 634″

Kirkwood, CA – 648″
Northstar, CA – 608″

Bear Valley, CA; Solitude, UT – 623″

Sierra-at-Tahoe, CA; Snowbird, UT – 625″

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:02 pm Ski lifts are buried out west there’s so much snow at the resorts. Many have broken or will break record snow totals , with another AR event on the way
4 and 500 inch amounts are common and dozens of resorts report joining the 600” club and a few 700 inch totals are on the way. Here’s a few amounts posted yesterday



Dodge Ridge, CA – 660″

Palisades Tahoe, CA – 662″

Alta, UT – 681″


Sugar Bowl, CA – 695″

Brighton, UT – 699″

Mammoth, CA – 784″
Boreal, CA – 630″

China Peak, CA – 634″

Kirkwood, CA – 648″
Northstar, CA – 608″

Bear Valley, CA; Solitude, UT – 623″

Sierra-at-Tahoe, CA; Snowbird, UT – 625″





4E6F793A-6995-4B5E-9953-C6AD33600772.jpeg

!!

I also saw footage of one of those resorts there in CA on the AccuWeather channel on Wed.

Yet another atmospheric river is forecast for the west coast next week!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:58 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:39 pm Does this mean a snow storm to open up April?

I've been hanging in there all winter long waiting on that big weenie snow storm or a prolonged snowy spell. Ugh!
Well, there's always next year, LOL LOL!!

That's pretty much where we're at Joe barring some miracle.

That pretty much seals the deal. Another cool and snowy April on the way!

Good morning all! 0.19" here for rainfall this far. CVG checking in with the same. The front will pass in the next few hours and then temps will fall and the wind will pick up.

A cold weekend on tap with some flurries even on Saturday with a secondary cold front. We warm up slowly next week with rain back by Wed night and Thurs as well as the 60s.

Front has passed. Down to 42 now at CVG. Rainfall up to 0.26"