Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:21 am Skies are a little brighter now IMBY but no sun breaks or anything. Overcast is still very solid per visible satellite. Monitoring radar out of Paducah and Evansville, IN and rain / storms in this area will impact the area later this afternoon so we're not done with the rain yet until the front passes. In terms of severe wx, warm front has not yet moved north of CVG as we still have E winds. Temp and dew are both at 52. Crittenden has E winds but Owenton has SSW winds so the warm front is located SW of Cincinnati somewhere between here and Owen Co KY as of 11am. Checked KY Mesonet sites and Carroll Co has ENE winds, but Oldham Co has SE winds.

Les I believe severe weather locally is going to be hard to achieve. Sure some heavy rain this afternoon as we see that west of Louisville and sure can get a clap of thunder but even further south dew points remain in the 50's as the rainfall did push temps down several degrees.

I think the rain cooled air stopped the progression of the warm front. The threat has significantly decreased for sure with more moderate to heavy rain on the way.

Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:51 am it looks like we might be flying a little blind... both KILN and TCVG are currently down.

They had a phone line issue too a couple of days ago if I recall where all NOAA Weather Radios would not receive any communications. Hopefully that at least has been fixed.

54 / 54 now at CVG with a SE wind so the warm front is trying to pass thru NKY at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:00 pm 54 / 54 now at CVG with a SE wind so the warm front is trying to pass thru NKY at this time.

I agree Les and the problem is Lexington is 59 with dew of 56 and Louisville is 60 with a dew of 57. Problem is the rain is still happening so going to hard to get dew points much higher this afternoon. Probably the dew and temp will go hand and hand this afternoon so maybe we hit 57 or 58.

looks like more seasonal temps coming for the last week of the month. my guess right now is March will end up being a cooler month

Ugly day going on here. Still wet and damp out there. No drying at all going on imby. No clue how much rain I got as I don't have the gauge out.

57 / 56 at CVG with S winds so the warm front is north of CVG finally. The surface low remains weaker then I expected and thus a further SE track which also helped with the warm front not being able to get as far north as expected. 1008 MB near Evansville, IN currently. We've got nice wind shear but lapse rates are poor and any CAPE and juicer dews, are still contained over SW KY and TN which is where the better severe threat will be. Rain is close to moving back into the region with the cold front still located well to the West over SE MO and Central ILL so we are fair game for showers and t-storms until that moves thru late this afternoon and evening. The severe threat is not zero but very low for our area thankfully. Good call by Trev yesterday. He didn't jinx it after all.

Looking at the rest of the 12Z suite, I am finding absolutely nothing for snow lovers to get excited about. I can't even find a chance for snow let alone something interesting. I hate to call it quits on February 16th so I won't, but at the same time, it is looking bleak. GFS, GEFS and CMC don't show anything interesting to me at all. 12Z Euro is running now and even if it did show something, it would be on an island of its own anyway. The rest of February looks to be more of the same IMO as to what we have seen for weeks and weeks now. A cold day or two embedded within 5 warmer days, that kind of thing. A couple of systems coming thru each week one weak the other stronger. This winter can't get over quick enough for me. Other then the cold shot in November, the Christmas Blizzard, and one cold period in January where we threaded the needle (and not everyone got hit, see Eastern and SE Counties for that pain), winter has been virtually non-existent for us. I would welcome a snow storm in March with open arms obviously but at this time, IMO it'll be like betting the long shot at the track.

At least for next season, we can hopefully try our luck with an El Nino! I'm willing to give it a try. La Nina's are for the birds.

If you look at the SOI here: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ You can see it is still majorly positive. Yeah, the talk on social media says the Nina is weakening. It is if you look at SST's. I won't argue that point. However, per the ragingly positive SOI, the atmospheric response still says La Nina is in charge. I know all the talk about the SSW event too. (Wow! Nice CG lightning strike and big thunder, house rattler!) Anyway, the warming has to propagate from the stratosphere down into the troposphere where weather occurs to have any potential impacts on changing the North American pattern. At last check, that wasn't looking so good. That leads us to the MJO. Yes, it has rocketed thru the warmer phases of 4, 5, and 6. It is close to being in Phase 7 today if it isn't already. It barley touches 8 on the modeling then dives into the neutral circle then comes back out into either 6 or 7. So honestly, it doesn't stay in the colder phases long enough to really change anything based on what I am seeing. So in conclusion, the can kicking continues. First it was maybe mid Feb. Then late Feb, then early March. Now it could be after 3/10 and once you get to that point you start to fight climo as the official start of spring is on 3/20. See what I mean? If anything good occurs for snow lovers, it'll probably show up 3-5 days prior to game time. You're not going to see much at Day 10 and beyond. Good luck to us snow lovers, we're going to seriously need it. For warm weather lovers like Trev, you could not be more happy with regards to how this winter has turned out and what lies ahead in the future.

i'd like just one more snow where i can overseed my lawn and let the snow gently push it in. Otherwise, I'm ready for warmer weather and hopefully some thunder.

FYI, it started back to raining here and the wind is pretty brisk again.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:57 pm i'd like just one more snow where i can overseed my lawn and let the snow gently push it in. Otherwise, I'm ready for warmer weather and hopefully some thunder.

FYI, it started back to raining here and the wind is pretty brisk again.

We've been getting plenty of warmer weather and thunder thus far in February. Should have seeded in January. Every -EPO ridge we have seen in Alaska continues to fold over instead of being more poleward towards the arctic regions. This allows the trough to continue digging into the West and the cold only slowly bleeds east (what little bit we get these days). In fact, another atmospheric river event looks to be setting up soon for Southern California. You know how that will end for us. I'm already seeing models back off on the cold around the 24th and as we get into the closing days of Feb, I am seeing plenty of 60s and 70s again. If I had to bet someone a beer, I would easily bet someone that you can punt the rest of February for anything meaningful snow wise. I won't yet do that for March of course. Give it another 10 days to see where we're at as far as it goes. As I've said before, if things do not change, severe wx season come March, April, and May could get really interesting!

1.84" now at CVG as of 2pm. 1.83" at the Boone co mesonet site. Over the 1.8" mark here as well.

Les the models are showing minor signs especially the Euro and if we can get a -NAO I believe we can at least get a few more systems in here that can produce snow. Getting -NAO's in later Feb and March happens quite often and really up through May many times the NAO is negative and you get those nasty cold days in the northeast in the middle of May and sometimes even snow up there. So not expecting a 2-3 week period of cold and snow but I can see where a few storm system will at least give us a shot at some winter weather. Bringing the 3 youngest grandkids up to the house on the 18th of March for about a week and would love to have some snow then so they have an ideal what may happen when they get to Wisconsin later this year lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:10 pm Les the models are showing minor signs especially the Euro and if we can get a -NAO I believe we can at least get a few more systems in here that can produce snow. Getting -NAO's in later Feb and March happens quite often and really up through May many times the NAO is negative and you get those nasty cold days in the northeast in the middle of May and sometimes even snow up there. So not expecting a 2-3 week period of cold and snow but I can see where a few storm system will at least give us a shot at some winter weather. Bringing the 3 youngest grandkids up to the house on the 18th of March for about a week and would love to have some snow then so they have an ideal what may happen when they get to Wisconsin later this year lol

You're going to need a well timed shortwave Tim to coincide with the shot of cold air. Since we aren't getting any sustainable cold pattern going, It's a long shot mind you but that would be a way to do it. It's really the only way that I see to get it done.

EDIT: Whereabouts in Wisc? If it's the northern part, they should have some good times for sure like I used to as a kid seeing my Grandparents in Michigan. Snow mobiling, ice fishing, etc.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:10 pm Les the models are showing minor signs especially the Euro and if we can get a -NAO I believe we can at least get a few more systems in here that can produce snow. Getting -NAO's in later Feb and March happens quite often and really up through May many times the NAO is negative and you get those nasty cold days in the northeast in the middle of May and sometimes even snow up there. So not expecting a 2-3 week period of cold and snow but I can see where a few storm system will at least give us a shot at some winter weather. Bringing the 3 youngest grandkids up to the house on the 18th of March for about a week and would love to have some snow then so they have an ideal what may happen when they get to Wisconsin later this year lol

You're going to need a well timed shortwave Tim to coincide with the shot of cold air. Since we aren't getting any sustainable cold pattern going, It's a long shot mind you but that would be a way to do it. It's really the only way that I see to get it done.

EDIT: Whereabouts in Wisc? If it's the northern part, they should have some good times for sure like I used to as a kid seeing my Grandparents in Michigan. Snow mobiling, ice fishing, etc.

Les love those upper lows in later Feb and March and yes you must be in the correct place but when they happen its wonderful for a day or two.

South wind at MGY now so the front has even lifted north of me! Temp is 58 here currently.

Watching the radar over Western IN ahead of the cold front. If anyone has a shot at a stronger storm, it'll be with that activity.

Update as of about an hour ago from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
IT. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
WITH RECENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS...WHILE SHEAR IS STILL
IMPRESSIVE, INSTABILITY IS NEAR NON-EXISTENT GIVEN THE
OVERTURNING OF THE ENVIRONMENT FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK SBCAPE MAY
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT UP TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES… AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, STORMS FORCED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST,,
BUT SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH COLDER AIR IS USHERED
IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:16 pm Looking at the rest of the 12Z suite, I am finding absolutely nothing for snow lovers to get excited about. I can't even find a chance for snow let alone something interesting. I hate to call it quits on February 16th so I won't, but at the same time, it is looking bleak. GFS, GEFS and CMC don't show anything interesting to me at all. 12Z Euro is running now and even if it did show something, it would be on an island of its own anyway. The rest of February looks to be more of the same IMO as to what we have seen for weeks and weeks now. A cold day or two embedded within 5 warmer days, that kind of thing. A couple of systems coming thru each week one weak the other stronger. This winter can't get over quick enough for me. Other then the cold shot in November, the Christmas Blizzard, and one cold period in January where we threaded the needle (and not everyone got hit, see Eastern and SE Counties for that pain), winter has been virtually non-existent for us. I would welcome a snow storm in March with open arms obviously but at this time, IMO it'll be like betting the long shot at the track.

I would like to agree with your sentiments. Another bad winter in a long line of frustrating winters around here. Every winter since 14-15, in my opinion, has been frustrating. Sure, we've seen a few decent storms here and there, but the winters, overall, have been frustrating. It's the longest stretch of frustrating winters I can recall, for me personally, since the late 80's into the early 90's. It will turn around at some point. If you look back at history, we go through stretches where we string together several years of average to above average snowfall. Then we hit a period of average to below average for several years. That's why we have averages. If we could pull out one 4-6 inch storm from the rest of this bad winter I would be happy. Otherwise, bring on the 70's and 80's everyday.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:16 pm Looking at the rest of the 12Z suite, I am finding absolutely nothing for snow lovers to get excited about. I can't even find a chance for snow let alone something interesting. I hate to call it quits on February 16th so I won't, but at the same time, it is looking bleak. GFS, GEFS and CMC don't show anything interesting to me at all. 12Z Euro is running now and even if it did show something, it would be on an island of its own anyway. The rest of February looks to be more of the same IMO as to what we have seen for weeks and weeks now. A cold day or two embedded within 5 warmer days, that kind of thing. A couple of systems coming thru each week one weak the other stronger. This winter can't get over quick enough for me. Other then the cold shot in November, the Christmas Blizzard, and one cold period in January where we threaded the needle (and not everyone got hit, see Eastern and SE Counties for that pain), winter has been virtually non-existent for us. I would welcome a snow storm in March with open arms obviously but at this time, IMO it'll be like betting the long shot at the track.

I would like to agree with your sentiments. Another bad winter in a long line of frustrating winters around here. Every winter since 14-15, in my opinion, has been frustrating. Sure, we've seen a few decent storms here and there, but the winters, overall, have been frustrating. It's the longest stretch of frustrating winters I can recall, for me personally, since the late 80's into the early 90's. It will turn around at some point. If you look back at history, we go through stretches where we string together several years of average to above average snowfall. Then we hit a period of average to below average for several years. That's why we have averages. If we could pull out one 4-6 inch storm from the rest of this bad winter I would be happy. Otherwise, bring on the 70's and 80's everyday.

Maybe we'll do better with an El Nino next season, Doug. The early 70s had some Nina's then the Nino's came in the classic mid to late 70s winters. Who knows anymore LOL But anyway, if history does repeat itself, well there you go. I think the last time I started mowing in March was in 2012 with that record setting warmth we had that month. Typically it is usually in April when I mow for the first time. If things don't change soon, this year I'll be mowing in March for sure.

Been noticing a weakening trend with that line of showers ahead of the front. No surprise as we have zero CAPE to work with. Once it passes in a couple more hours, temps will drop like a rock! Tomorrow will sting before we repeat the pattern again next week.

58 / 57 at CVG as of 4pm. Total precip thus far at 1.88" Peak wind gust was 43 mph with the storms we had this morning ahead of the warm front.

EDIT: It looks like we have broken the daily rainfall record for today. Old record was 1.53" set way back in 1873 .

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:16 pm Looking at the rest of the 12Z suite, I am finding absolutely nothing for snow lovers to get excited about. I can't even find a chance for snow let alone something interesting. I hate to call it quits on February 16th so I won't, but at the same time, it is looking bleak. GFS, GEFS and CMC don't show anything interesting to me at all. 12Z Euro is running now and even if it did show something, it would be on an island of its own anyway. The rest of February looks to be more of the same IMO as to what we have seen for weeks and weeks now. A cold day or two embedded within 5 warmer days, that kind of thing. A couple of systems coming thru each week one weak the other stronger. This winter can't get over quick enough for me. Other then the cold shot in November, the Christmas Blizzard, and one cold period in January where we threaded the needle (and not everyone got hit, see Eastern and SE Counties for that pain), winter has been virtually non-existent for us. I would welcome a snow storm in March with open arms obviously but at this time, IMO it'll be like betting the long shot at the track.

I would like to agree with your sentiments. Another bad winter in a long line of frustrating winters around here. Every winter since 14-15, in my opinion, has been frustrating. Sure, we've seen a few decent storms here and there, but the winters, overall, have been frustrating. It's the longest stretch of frustrating winters I can recall, for me personally, since the late 80's into the early 90's. It will turn around at some point. If you look back at history, we go through stretches where we string together several years of average to above average snowfall. Then we hit a period of average to below average for several years. That's why we have averages. If we could pull out one 4-6 inch storm from the rest of this bad winter I would be happy. Otherwise, bring on the 70's and 80's everyday.

No arguments from me dce with your years of mention for mostly duds, a good
ten years at least imby. Haven't had any single events of over 4" and even that amount has been rare

I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008. Even that fabulous Feb of 2010 not everyone cashed in with those hybrid clippers.