Absolute Vorticity

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:12 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:07 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:04 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:04 am hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

I am speaking for myself here, but we haven't even gotten to the pattern yet so I'm not concerned about when it ends. We've got the rain tonight and the wind / frontal passage tomorrow to deal with. Then of course, Sunday and around Tues night / Wed of next week for potential snow systems. Then an arctic front will try and bring in a batch of fresh arctic air to the region and then we'll see if we can get a system around months end or early Feb while the cold is around. After that... we are getting pretty far out there in time so not concerned at this point. We've got enough to watch over the next 2 weeks as it is.

Shoot, I'm taking it one day at a time. It's Ohio after all and wait 5 minutes and the weather will change.

Can't blame you at all, JP. We saw last week where we had 4 seasons in 1 day. Here it comes again with this next system.

12Z GFS must be on the fritz... I don't think it has even started running yet.

EDIT: It maybe finally initializing now.

Good Morning and another mild day but clouds increasing quickly. Over the past 3 weeks or so many systems came into the west coast. We had a few come over the mountains but much of the energy stayed well to the north for the most part. I mentioned this because the GOM has really not been touched and with the pattern change look for the GOM to open up quite often. As always opening that up brings a risk of milder air but also brings a possible reward of a bigger system that can yield a nice snowfall. We are just in the start of the pattern change and we need to see how things line up. Staring later Thursday colder air will start to work into the area with a few snow flurries and maybe a quick snow shower but the ground is rather warm for mid-January. I will talk about the upcoming possible winter systems later as the models come out with their latest and greatest. My guess is the GFS will end up being the coldest after all is said and done because that is what that model seems to do. No doubt not a good year for the GFS once again and the Euro has done well and even credit to the CMC back in December as it was by far the best for a few weeks but its going back to be the step sister to the Euro.

12Z GFS coming in with about a half inch of rain for CVG for tonight ending early tomorrow. Then we get a break with the dry slot (a period of sun and wind) then 0.03" to work with for wrap around moisture as temps fall later on Thursday.

Already tell the system for the weekend is further south on the gfs from 24 hours ago. Lets see where that model takes this system and how the upper trough comes in and combines with this system

For Sunday, the GFS is finally taking the south route now with the low track, which we figured it would, however, the thermal profile is still too warm for snow along and SE of I-71. A wet snow NW of that line is basically what the model is showing. Really not much of a phase either with the upper low, which we need, to help pull in a bit more in the way of cold air. Kind of a messy look to be honest on this run.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:15 am For Sunday, the GFS is finally taking the south route now with the low track, which we figured it would, however, the thermal profile is still too warm for snow along and SE of I-71. A wet snow NW of that line is basically what the model is showing. Really not much of a phase either with the upper low, which we need, to help pull in a bit more in the way of cold air. Kind of a messy look to be honest on this run.

I agree Les. The upper system that starts out in the southwest sort of opens up to more of a wave and then we have the upper trough digging in. Looks like a system that we see here often and that is it weakens heading into the Ohio Valley but then regains strengths once it get to the coast. Again with the first system we have marginal cold to begin with so we need the upper system to be stronger and that does not look like the case on this run. At least the GFS finally went south and my guess that trend will continue on that model as time goes on.

12Z Canadian pretty much has the Metro on the dividing line between rain versus snow for Sunday. Not shocked at all since these situations are very typical for our region. It's just been a while since we've dealt with one of these.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:15 am For Sunday, the GFS is finally taking the south route now with the low track, which we figured it would, however, the thermal profile is still too warm for snow along and SE of I-71. A wet snow NW of that line is basically what the model is showing. Really not much of a phase either with the upper low, which we need, to help pull in a bit more in the way of cold air. Kind of a messy look to be honest on this run.

I agree Les. The upper system that starts out in the southwest sort of opens up to more of a wave and then we have the upper trough digging in. Looks like a system that we see here often and that is it weakens heading into the Ohio Valley but then regains strengths once it get to the coast. Again with the first system we have marginal cold to begin with so we need the upper system to be stronger and that does not look like the case on this run. At least the GFS finally went south and my guess that trend will continue on that model as time goes on.

I think that the models are agreeing on the low track at this point, so it's a matter of the finer details in terms of phasing / strength to either give us rain or snow for the bulk of the event. This system is the table setter for a much bigger potential Tues night and Wed of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:15 am For Sunday, the GFS is finally taking the south route now with the low track, which we figured it would, however, the thermal profile is still too warm for snow along and SE of I-71. A wet snow NW of that line is basically what the model is showing. Really not much of a phase either with the upper low, which we need, to help pull in a bit more in the way of cold air. Kind of a messy look to be honest on this run.

I agree Les. The upper system that starts out in the southwest sort of opens up to more of a wave and then we have the upper trough digging in. Looks like a system that we see here often and that is it weakens heading into the Ohio Valley but then regains strengths once it get to the coast. Again with the first system we have marginal cold to begin with so we need the upper system to be stronger and that does not look like the case on this run. At least the GFS finally went south and my guess that trend will continue on that model as time goes on.

I think that the models are agreeing on the low track at this point, so it's a matter of the finer details in terms of phasing / strength to either give us rain or snow for the bulk of the event. This system is the table setter for a much bigger potential Tues night and Wed of next week.

I agree Les and having a weaker system on Sunday is fine with me because the next system has a much better shot of us getting winter weather in the form of rain switching over to snow as colder air flows in plus the storm looks to be gaining strength as it approaches and not weakening.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:26 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:15 am For Sunday, the GFS is finally taking the south route now with the low track, which we figured it would, however, the thermal profile is still too warm for snow along and SE of I-71. A wet snow NW of that line is basically what the model is showing. Really not much of a phase either with the upper low, which we need, to help pull in a bit more in the way of cold air. Kind of a messy look to be honest on this run.

I agree Les. The upper system that starts out in the southwest sort of opens up to more of a wave and then we have the upper trough digging in. Looks like a system that we see here often and that is it weakens heading into the Ohio Valley but then regains strengths once it get to the coast. Again with the first system we have marginal cold to begin with so we need the upper system to be stronger and that does not look like the case on this run. At least the GFS finally went south and my guess that trend will continue on that model as time goes on.

I think that the models are agreeing on the low track at this point, so it's a matter of the finer details in terms of phasing / strength to either give us rain or snow for the bulk of the event. This system is the table setter for a much bigger potential Tues night and Wed of next week.

I agree Les and having a weaker system on Sunday is fine with me because the next system has a much better shot of us getting winter weather in the form of rain switching over to snow as colder air flows in plus the storm looks to be gaining strength as it approaches and not weakening.

Exactly Tim... I am with you there. On this run of the GFS for next weeks system, we would need a bit quicker of a phase then what is being shown on this run, but otherwise, the slow decaying of our low that tracks up the Apps, is a good thing. Honestly, with both systems (Sunday and next week), the storm track to be honest isn't the issue. It's the lack of cold air so both are "thread the needle" events which we've talked about and knew the risks going into this pattern. Once we get that arctic front to deliver some true cold air, then we'll have a much better chance for an all snow type of system late in the month.

The Canadian for next weeks system gets things phased and wound up too quickly so it cuts. That is always a risk but we haven't done well in recent winters with phasing events so the outcome being shown here has a low chance at occurring IMO. This system is right on the heels of Sunday's system so IMO you would have a much lower risk of a cutter for next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:35 am The Canadian for next weeks system gets things phased and wound up too quickly so it cuts. That is always a risk but we haven't done well in recent winters with phasing events so the outcome being shown here has a low chance at occurring IMO. This system is right on the heels of Sunday's system so IMO you would have a much lower risk of a cutter for next week.

I believe models are trying to figure how quickly the really cold air moves in next week. Getting snow cover to the north and west always helps. The cold air moving in looks like its more from the polar regions so its more dense and has a little easier time moving south. Will it get here in time for the system next week is the question but no doubt after the system much colder air will settle in. Timing like always is something we need to figure out and we are still almost a week away from that system

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:40 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:35 am The Canadian for next weeks system gets things phased and wound up too quickly so it cuts. That is always a risk but we haven't done well in recent winters with phasing events so the outcome being shown here has a low chance at occurring IMO. This system is right on the heels of Sunday's system so IMO you would have a much lower risk of a cutter for next week.

I believe models are trying to figure how quickly the really cold air moves in next week. Getting snow cover to the north and west always helps. The cold air moving in looks like its more from the polar regions so its more dense and has a little easier time moving south. Will it get here in time for the system next week is the question but no doubt after the system much colder air will settle in. Timing like always is something we need to figure out and we are still almost a week away from that system

Great post! We will get snow cover to our NW over MN, Wisc and Northern Lower MI / UP with the current system for this week. Then, it is close to us for Sunday, and next week (the rain / snow line) so lots for us to watch over the next couple of weeks. Better then it being boring and 60s, which we've seen plenty of this winter.

I tried looking at the 12Z UKMET but as of this post, something happened on Pivotal Weather's website where the graphics are having an issue. Most are blank or only show a couple of things.

12Z GEFS Members showing precip type for Sunday's system. Still a few minor issues to be worked out in the coming days but a lot of them show us being right on the line between rain and snow.

No high pressure to the north is the biggest problem. Its a very weak shallow cold layer in place

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:08 pm No high pressure to the north is the biggest problem. Its a very weak shallow cold layer in place

No doubt the models have the deeper cold coming in mainly after next weeks system. The path of the system may be okay and we will see but even with the Tuesday/Wednesday system we are going to need some help upstairs. Upper parts of storm systems models have a hard time once a stronger surface low forms. Not sure why but they tend to handle that kind of forecast wrong even sometimes within 24 hours of a system

Nice posts guys! Couldn't be in more agreement. Since we have no cold air coming in that is polar in nature, you've got to have a heavier rate of precip for snow. Euro is coming in now, so we'll see what it does here shortly. For the incoming rain maker... it's got 0.67" for rain at CVG. Nice to see those 1" to 1.5" amounts were over done.

Still looking like a fence rider on the Euro but the northern piece doesn't really get involved much so much, much less precip to work with.

SPC trying to up the ante ahead of tomorrow's cold front. After the morning rain ends, we get the dry slot with a lot of sunshine and strong SW winds to push us towards 60 degrees prior to the front coming in. Should be some good lapse rates with this set up.

Tues night and Wed of next week is still looking nice on today's Euro.

12Z EPS is SE with the low track vs 0Z. Low works up into NE TN then it does the transfer. 32 for 2M temps Sun morning then we shoot up to 38 in the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Best QPF over the SE counties. I don't know still if it's worth starting a thread or not. The lack of cold air just isn't going to allow this system to be a huge deal for us as it stands right now. If someone wants to start it, I'll pin it. I have no issues of course with anyone besides me starting a thread. Maybe we'll have better luck??

Then for Tues night and Wed of next week, the EPS is well NW of the Operational Euro with the low on the mean cutting it right up the OH River thru Cincinnati up towards Erie, PA.

With our current system, light rain is already moving into the area. Started here about 30 mins ago. Models def busting with the timing on this current system.

Here's the wording for tomorrow from SPC.


IN/OH
Scattered to widespread showers early Thursday morning in association with a warm-air advection will quickly depart the region by midday. The primary mid-level vorticity lobe will rotate through the base of the trough from the MS River on the MO/IL border east to the IN/OH border during the 15z to 21z period. Cold air advection in the mid levels coupled with some boundary layer heating (via gradual erosion of clouds and insolation) will act to weakly destabilize the airmass from eastern IN into OH. A cluster of low-topped convection will likely develop by early-mid afternoon over IN. Long hodographs indicate fast-moving storms and this activity will likely spread into northern OH by early evening. Severe gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, but small to marginally severe hail and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out.