Absolute Vorticity

Here is the gfs maps.

The canadian is looking good. If the euro shows the same then it will be interesting.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:51 pm The latest Euro, GFS and NAM all giving me at least 7 inches. At this point in the game, I will take that and run with it!

Let’s cross our fingers for a direct Maineville hit!!!!

Both Watches have been upgraded to Warnings-

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
315 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022


INZ058-059-066-073-074-OHZ045-046-053>056-060>063-070>072-077-
221615-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KILN.WC.A.0001.221223T0600Z-221224T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WC.W.0001.221223T0600Z-221224T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.WS.W.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Union OH-Delaware-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Marysville, Delaware, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden,
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia,
Washington Court House, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford,
Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester,
and Cincinnati
315 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45
mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills
expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 7 PM this evening to
5 PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 1 AM Friday
to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold
wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
deteriorate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

&&

$$

INZ075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ078-221615-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KILN.WC.A.0001.221223T0600Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WC.W.0001.221223T0600Z-221223T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KILN.WS.W.0005.221223T0000Z-221223T2200Z/
Ohio-Switzerland-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Clermont-
Including the cities of Rising Sun, Vevay, Florence, Burlington,
Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria,
and Milford
315 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as
45 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills
expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 7 PM this evening to
5 PM EST Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 1 AM to 5 PM
EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will drop sharply in the
matter of a few hours during Thursday night, rapidly falling
well below freezing, leading to the potential for a flash
freeze. This will cause travel conditions to rapidly
deteriorate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

Good Morning and all system go as we get ready for a nice little storm. Checked the sref plumes this morning as they got somewhat wacky last night and at CVG the mean at 3.79 with most of them in the 3-4 inch range though we have one showing nearly 7 inches and 1 showing less than 1 inch. Getting within 12 or so hours a start time and you would expect this totals to get very close. After the round of snow late tonight into the early hours of Friday it shows no more in the way of accumulation. Still believe we see some snow showers at times as this system wraps up more but these will be more isolated and hard to pinpoint an exact location at this point. Sticking with my 2-5 inch range and thought about moving up the low end but I believe the hard part of the storm may be trying to figure out how much snow fell because of the winds.

I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

6z GFS continues to pump out some insane snowfall rates. 6-8” area-wide. Obviously that is likely too high. Def adjusting my 1-3” to 2-4” with isolated 5” amounts.

This is insane!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:35 am

This is insane!

Omg!! That is incredible!!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:41 am I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

From a forecast standpoint, I think the 6z RGEM is probably the best representation of what will likely happen re: snowfall totals.

I posted a part of a weatherworks email the other day. Here is part of today's email. Just like that has been posted here this is a storm not to mess with. Be safe if you have to be out in this. High Impact Winter Weather Event Likely Thursday Night Into Friday... A quiet next few days in store, but all eyes are on a potent disturbance that will impact the area starting Thursday Night. Given we are still a few days out from the start, the exact details still need to be sorted out. One thing we are certain about is that a very powerful and dangerous shot of arctic air will cause a rapid drop in temps overnight Thursday after some evening rain. We are talking a drop of 30 - 40 degrees in just a matter of a few hours that will instantly cause all wet surfaces to freeze. On top of that, a period of snow is likely (preliminary change over time is 1 - 4AM) that leads to some accumulation through Friday Morning. Preliminary estimates are for 2 - 5" of snow that will likely be blown around in the wind. In addition, temps crashing to the single digits will basically make salt ineffective, which will lead to extra operations being needed.

Trev, the map looks about right and again some folks will get less and some more and that is with every system. The one thing I did notice is models are trying to add a little more moisture with 75-100 miles of CVG in most directions. This no doubt could be timing and amounts will vary as this storm strengthens and when that happens the front will slow down at times. Exactly where that happens is still up in the air. Going with a bigger range I thought was the way to go. Still believe somebody in the Ohio Valley will get over 6 inches but again that will become a nowcast this evening. Still believe snow showers are possible through Christmas Eve but these are more isolated and hard to pick out this far in advance but with the deep cold air and you get under one of these another 1 inch or so can fall in a short period of time. Models will no doubt have problems with the snow showers.

That NAM run this morning was a soul crusher. But Euro and GFS still hammer our area!

Good morning folks! Ya'll ready for this?


I really have no changes based on the oivernight runs. I like that 2-4" call with isolated higher amounts. Someone is going to see 5-6" for sure, but in isolated fashion. Totally agree our measurements aren't going to be all that great. The wind is just going to be so brutual but oh boy... in about 11 or 12 hours from now, it's going to be hammer time!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:12 am From a forecast standpoint, I think the 6z RGEM is probably the best representation of what will likely happen re: snowfall totals.

Well it looks like I am going to be in the higher snow area and it is going to be so windy.

9Z SREF has a 3-4" mean for most folks. Nice clustering in that 1-5" range. A couple members are below and a couple higher then that.

So far like most systems there have been busts both ways and even less than 50 miles apart in some areas. Will watch pressure changes today which is critical in seeing where a low pressure may form. Want to see if the noon models are going to raise precip totals or lower them and this is another piece of the puzzle. I love systems that are getting stronger as it heads this way and though this is more of a system getting stronger while its in our neighborhood. Once this storm really starts to get going you don't always have that straight west to east line of cold but instead cold is wrapping around the system and the cold will move in from the southwest to northeast. That is key to folks say in Columbus because you may stay liquid a little longer if that timing is correct.

Was on 71 north around 9:15pm last night and passed a convoy of energy repair trucks heading north. No idea where they were coming from. Probably a state south of us getting called in for assistance. They weren’t Duke.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:26 am 9Z SREF has a 3-4" mean for most folks. Nice clustering in that 1-5" range. A couple members are below and a couple higher then that.

Les the latest came down by about 1 inch as the earlier run had the mean at 3.79 with most members in the 3-4 inch range.

12Z HRRR Kuchera.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:29 am So far like most systems there have been busts both ways and even less than 50 miles apart in some areas. Will watch pressure changes today which is critical in seeing where a low pressure may form. Want to see if the noon models are going to raise precip totals or lower them and this is another piece of the puzzle. I love systems that are getting stronger as it heads this way and though this is more of a system getting stronger while its in our neighborhood. Once this storm really starts to get going you don't always have that straight west to east line of cold but instead cold is wrapping around the system and the cold will move in from the southwest to northeast. That is key to folks say in Columbus because you may stay liquid a little longer if that timing is correct.

Great post here!

Just checking some pressure falls and so fall nothing drastic as we don't expect the big falls until later today. The front is in west central Illinois already so the front is moving and would not surprise me if the time period is moved up by and hour or so and especially if the system does not get cranking until a few hours later than expected.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:33 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:29 am So far like most systems there have been busts both ways and even less than 50 miles apart in some areas. Will watch pressure changes today which is critical in seeing where a low pressure may form. Want to see if the noon models are going to raise precip totals or lower them and this is another piece of the puzzle. I love systems that are getting stronger as it heads this way and though this is more of a system getting stronger while its in our neighborhood. Once this storm really starts to get going you don't always have that straight west to east line of cold but instead cold is wrapping around the system and the cold will move in from the southwest to northeast. That is key to folks say in Columbus because you may stay liquid a little longer if that timing is correct.

Great post here!

If it was liquid beer I would be fine with that. It will be a stressful day watching this unfold.

Is there a way to verify which model is handling this correctly so far?