Absolute Vorticity

Les,

Pretty good rain maker for us too. Western Ohio got more but at least we got some.


CLE: .44
CAK: .33
TOL: 1.55

We got some quiet weather Monday into Tuesday before that next low pressure and cold front affect our area on Wednesday. We might see some snow showers on the back side but gotta watch to see how much dry air moves in. But we will see some gusty winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with the low level jet increasing to 50-60 kts according to the NAM. Probably a little more gusty along the lakeshore with the down sloping winds. I would think a wind advisory will be issues especially for the lakeshore counties.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 5:20 pm Les,

Pretty good rain maker for us too. Western Ohio got more but at least we got some.


CLE: .44
CAK: .33
TOL: 1.55

We got some quiet weather Monday into Tuesday before that next low pressure and cold front affect our area on Wednesday. We might see some snow showers on the back side but gotta watch to see how much dry air moves in. But we will see some gusty winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with the low level jet increasing to 50-60 kts according to the NAM. Probably a little more gusty along the lakeshore with the down sloping winds. I would think a wind advisory will be issues especially for the lakeshore counties.

I'm up to 0.78" now with light rain and 49. Cold front is coming thru the area now. Not sure if we'll see strong storms here or not with the next system. Tough to get CAPE this time of year. Probably another half inch plus system down here for rain totals along with 40-50 mph winds (much like the system we had today).

Good Evening and some great football today. So far between Friday and this round right at .80. That is lower than I thought since my prediction was 1-1.25 but the rain has mainly been a nice light to moderate rain at times and this really helps with the short term drought and more coming Tuesday and Wednesday.

0.79" here with the front passing thru. Temps dropping now, down to 46 degrees with a gusty W winds.

Cool photo of the cold front moving through.

My gauge picked up 1.10"

Currently 41 here in G'ville.

Tis the season when the winds be howling . Expect rains for tues/we'd for most of AV land to be In the .25"-.75" range with scattered showers and t-showers.

Good morning all! A gloomy day today but dry with highs staying in the 40s. We'll spike up towards 60 tomorrow. The marginal risk for severe wx on Tues gets close to our SW counties but that threat should avoid us IMO. We should see 40-50 mph gusts much like with this last system.

Good Morning and Les you are correct a gloomy day in store. Even without a severe outbreak winds will once again be very gusty later Tuesday and Wednesday plus a nice cold front coming through and maybe a few flakes at the end of the system but nothing to write home about. Many times we talk about how when Alaska is cold we tend to be mild and vice versa. That is not the case at the moment and they look to get even milder in the next few weeks imo as we start to decline slowly at first but hopefully by mid-month cold will start to lock in for a period of time. My concern is we are getting into a much wetter pattern but will that still be around once we hit mid-moth. I love to see cold weather but not so much a fan if there is no snow involved. Way to early to figure that out of course.

Tim... it's going to depend on how far south the cold air can make it while bumping up against the SE Ridge. The -PNA will ensure an active pattern but what our temps and p-type will be will depend on where the frontal boundary stalls out with each system. This is the pattern I am envisioning.

Hope all had a wonderful Thanksgiving! Received 0.78" here from the rain event - it was much needed!

got a half inch last night. looking at another half or three quarter on wed. temps look to be right around average and for the next 7 days. cool cloudy and windy today. a very average late November day

12Z NAM and GFS both are in excellent agreement with us getting a half inch of rain with this next system. The call looks great from Bgoney on this.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 11:19 am 12Z NAM and GFS both are in excellent agreement with us getting a half inch of rain with this next system. The call looks great from Bgoney on this.

I agree as the front is rather strong and having it come through in the early morning hours always helps in getting a little more in terms of rainfall. The lower end would be if the storms to the south of us get so strong that it hampers moisture moving up this way but at the moment half an inch looks like a very good call. We are getting out of the short term drought and even though its not the growing season getting rainfall with the ground not frozen is always good to get the water tables higher plus vegetation is not using as much moisture.

12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:26 pm 12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

I just looked at ours and we are showing between .23 NAM lower end with the Euro coming in much higher at .38. Should be a decent rain maker but I am more worried about winds especially with the down sloping effect along the lakeshore.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:26 pm 12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

I just looked at ours and we are showing between .23 NAM lower end with the Euro coming in much higher at .38. Should be a decent rain maker but I am more worried about winds especially with the down sloping effect along the lakeshore.

Winds at H925 around 50KTs,. Question will be how much mixes down.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:10 pm

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:26 pm 12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

I just looked at ours and we are showing between .23 NAM lower end with the Euro coming in much higher at .38. Should be a decent rain maker but I am more worried about winds especially with the down sloping effect along the lakeshore.

Winds at H925 around 50KTs,. Question will be how much mixes down.

I'm going with 40-50 mph gusts like we saw with the last system. I think the better chances for severe gusts to 60 mph will be just to my SW towards LOU.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:21 pm

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:10 pm

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:26 pm 12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

I just looked at ours and we are showing between .23 NAM lower end with the Euro coming in much higher at .38. Should be a decent rain maker but I am more worried about winds especially with the down sloping effect along the lakeshore.

Winds at H925 around 50KTs,. Question will be how much mixes down.

I'm going with 40-50 mph gusts like we saw with the last system. I think the better chances for severe gusts to 60 mph will be just to my SW towards LOU.

That sounds good, the more interesting part is the severe weather threat to our south. I think we might see a few thunderstorms mainly out in western Ohio with dew points only in the midd to upper 40's.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:28 pm That sounds good, the more interesting part is the severe weather threat to our south. I think we might see a few thunderstorms mainly out in western Ohio with dew points only in the midd to upper 40's.

I think a few strong storms cannot be ruled out but the lack of juicer dews and CAPE leads me to believe that the bigger event will absolutely be over West KY, West TN and points south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:21 pm

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:10 pm

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:05 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:26 pm 12Z Euro coming in with 0.38" at CVG for our next system.

I just looked at ours and we are showing between .23 NAM lower end with the Euro coming in much higher at .38. Should be a decent rain maker but I am more worried about winds especially with the down sloping effect along the lakeshore.

Winds at H925 around 50KTs,. Question will be how much mixes down.

I'm going with 40-50 mph gusts like we saw with the last system. I think the better chances for severe gusts to 60 mph will be just to my SW towards LOU.

I agree and also believe the gusts will be a little more than we saw on Sunday.

Lol, this pretty much says all we need to know about the new upgrade coming from the GFS .

NOAA: Update: due to expected severe weather, a critical weather day will delay the implementation of GFSv16.3 to Wednesday Nov 30, 2022.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:09 pm Lol, this pretty much says all we need to know about the new upgrade coming from the GFS .

NOAA: Update: due to expected severe weather, a critical weather day will delay the implementation of GFSv16.3 to Wednesday Nov 30, 2022.

So we can expect to see even more fantasy snow storms with the 12Z 11/30 run?

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:12 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:09 pm Lol, this pretty much says all we need to know about the new upgrade coming from the GFS .

NOAA: Update: due to expected severe weather, a critical weather day will delay the implementation of GFSv16.3 to Wednesday Nov 30, 2022.

So we can expect to see even more fantasy snow storms with the 12Z 11/30 run?

It's going to be the go to model when pleasant weather is on the horizon