Absolute Vorticity

NAM/HRRR on the same page for tomorrow night with a broken line of storms moving through. GFS/EU showing pretty much nothing for the same period

Thanks for the birthday wishes everyone! Only had 0.05” this AM but maybe we can cash in on a line of storms tomorrow. Won’t be much rain but would love to hear some thunder!

BTW I feel old lol

SPC upgraded us to a slight risk now for tomorrow evening. We shall see...

HB ! Mike B.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:14 pmHB ! Mike B.

Thank you!!

Good Afternoon and a great day as the earlier rain was able to soak into the ground. Chances of rain over the next 24-36 hours? We still have the LLJ that is rather strong each night and models once again have a hard time figuring out where the jet and moisture meet. Will watch that for some possible rainfall early Monday morning. If that fails to appear then this should allow the atmosphere to get rather nice for showers and thundershowers later in the day. The timing may be perfect as well so a 3pm-10pm time period is what we need to look at for a decent band form to our northwest and head southeast. Can these go severe and possible though we will just need to watch on Monday. Any storm can of course have strong winds and heavy rains but even some models are showing a little turn in the winds and a tornado is possible. Again we are out of the peak of tornado season and they are rare in August around here for the most part unless you have a tropical system. A warmer period Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe low 90's Wednesday but the dew points will be rather high and even if the temperature only makes it to the upper 80's the humidity will be high so yes we may get near 100 for the heat index but that would only be for an hour or so. Another front is expected to be here late in the week and though its weaker than the one on Monday with all the moisture still hanging around it will depend exactly where the front stalls or fades away.

I am not seeing as many 90s now as I once was and that is due to increased chances for t-storms. Agree with Tim, that Wed. looks to be the hottest day of the week and the greatest chance to exceed 90 degrees. I also think the low 90s is a good call. Rainfall chances for the upcoming week are of course tomorrow, then again on Thurs and Fri. We may even see lingering chances into next weekend as well with that same front lingering around the area. Hope to see the rainfall focused more north since SE Kentucky doesn't need anymore, but I think more issues are going to be headed in their direction unfortunately.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:06 am Happy Birthday Mike. Wow the kids keep getting older lol as he turns 50. I am at the age that anyone under 50 is a kid to me. Hope you have a wonderful day and such enjoyment seeing your posts on here.

Same here, Tim, as I'll be the BIG 6-0 in Jan!

HAPPY BIG 50TH MIKE!!!!

I hope that you've enjoyed your special day, Wxbuddy!

Great that the Redlegs could bring a 2 out of 3 series win over the birdies special bday weekend gift for you, too, bro!

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:58 pm I am not seeing as many 90s now as I once was and that is due to increased chances for t-storms. Agree with Tim, that Wed. looks to be the hottest day of the week and the greatest chance to exceed 90 degrees. I also think the low 90s is a good call. Rainfall chances for the upcoming week are of course tomorrow, then again on Thurs and Fri. We may even see lingering chances into next weekend as well with that same front lingering around the area. Hope to see the rainfall focused more north since SE Kentucky doesn't need anymore, but I think more issues are going to be headed in their direction unfortunately.

I saw where the toll is now at 26. Among the fatalities was a family of young siblings.

Prayers and thoughts continue for all those affected.

Most of the area has a chance at severe storms later, with the best chance along and south of 71 where they should build more cape. I still like Les's percentages from a couple days ago.

The August thread is now up. Sorry for the delay all.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=169

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:57 am I'd also like to wish Mike (Mfitz730) a very happy birthday today! Thanks again for assistance on putting on a great fireworks show! Can't wait for 2023!!! Enjoy your day, Mike!!

Thanks Les! Looking forward to it!

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:57 am I'd also like to wish Mike (Mfitz730) a very happy birthday today! Thanks again for assistance on putting on a great fireworks show! Can't wait for 2023!!! Enjoy your day, Mike!!

Thanks Les! Looking forward to it!

Knowing you, you probably had a show to do on your Birthday!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:55 am

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:57 am I'd also like to wish Mike (Mfitz730) a very happy birthday today! Thanks again for assistance on putting on a great fireworks show! Can't wait for 2023!!! Enjoy your day, Mike!!

Thanks Les! Looking forward to it!

Knowing you, you probably had a show to do on your Birthday!

Normally you would be right, but I actually took the weekend this year! Enjoyed some much needed time at my camper, the weather was perfect for it!

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:55 am

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:57 am I'd also like to wish Mike (Mfitz730) a very happy birthday today! Thanks again for assistance on putting on a great fireworks show! Can't wait for 2023!!! Enjoy your day, Mike!!

Thanks Les! Looking forward to it!

Knowing you, you probably had a show to do on your Birthday!

Normally you would be right, but I actually took the weekend this year! Enjoyed some much needed time at my camper, the weather was perfect for it!

Good for you Mike!