Absolute Vorticity

CVG and CMH got to 88 and DAY 89'ed for Fri.

Back home in KY now. Dews in the 40s currently. Pretty nice for June. Enjoy it, because starting Monday we will start cooking again. Next chance for storms is a low end chance on Wed. Not much... mainly a lot of heat in our future for next week.

What a beautiful fall like day it was today. I only had a high of 63 degrees with northwest winds 15 - 20 mph wow that is rare for middle of June !

Good morning and Happy Father's Day to all of our AV Dads out there!

I spied some 40s on the map this morning in some areas. 50s here. One last nice day before the temps and humidity get going next week. The
really nasty dews will arrive by Tues and Wed. We will start off with temps in the U80s tomorrow maybe 90. The upper 90s are def possible by Tues and Wed since the ground is drying out now and dews (as in 75+) do not look to occur this week. Dews on the order of 65 to 70ish are more likely so the air can heat up faster. I'm not ready to go with 100. Low 90s Thurs, mid 90s Fri, and more 90s still for next weekend. We've got a good shot to rack up another 6 or 7 90 degree days for June on top of the 4 we already have.

Rain chances... not much to speak of. A small chance Wed and a better chance by next Sunday with an actual cold front that will try and get in here to cool us back down again.

Those 75+ dews can just stay away for the rest of summer imo. That was just plain nasty

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:30 am Those 75+ dews can just stay away for the rest of summer imo. That was just plain nasty

Without a doubt. You guys had it worse then us with the record dew at CMH.

12Z GFS / Euro both have scattered storms Wed afternoon / evening as a weak front drops in from the north. A stronger front is still on tap for Sun afternoon and evening which hopefully brings an end to the 90s for a bit.

I hope everyone had a fantastic Father's Day today! Weather was perfect for middle of June standards.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:30 am Those 75+ dews can just stay away for the rest of summer imo. That was just plain nasty

Without a doubt. You guys had it worse then us with the record dew at CMH.

That was just plain nutz. Today and yesterday was perfect. Here's to hoping for lower dew points the rest of summer. lol

Good Monday to you all! 54 here this morning... gorgeous! U80s today... low to mid 90s tomorrow, mid 90s Wed. Higher dews in the upper 60s return also by then. Chance for t-storms on Wed with a front sliding in. U80s Thurs with lower humidity. Friday low 90s. Dews are back in full force this weekend with low to mid 90s expected. Chance of storms either Sunday or Monday of next week as the next front comes in to drop us into the 80s for a bit. We are probably looking at 5 90s give or take this week which is better then my 6-7 est. I posted previously.

SPC has a marginal risk out for all AV posters for Wed afternoon and evening as the next front comes in from the NW.

56 here this morning - definitely a breath of fresh air compared to what is ahead this week!

Today isn't going to be terrible. We should avoid 90 due to some clouds around. Also the higher dews are beginning to build to our West over ILL, extreme Western IN / KY so yeah, dews will start coming up today, but it'll still feel comfy compared to what is coming as Mike mentioned. Tues and Wed are going to be the most humid and hottest days of the week ahead. Same deal for the upcoming weekend. Again rain chances are highest on Wed and Sunday at this time. Strong to isolated severe storms are certainly possible with both of these cold fronts.

BG StormTalk!

Good Afternoon and made it back from SC. Should be home for much of the summer. Had no chance to check on the weather since Thursday and wanted to see how the Euro and GFS were stacking up on temps as they were almost 10 degrees apart for highs for a few days this week. Winter time is one thing with timing of a cold front and that may affect highs one day but in the summer the models should never be that far apart. Looks like the gfs will continue to be winner this summer as the Euro is listening to much to Al Gore. With the somewhat lower dew points compared to last week and the ground is somewhat drier but not horrible I could see a day where we get to 93 or 94 but the heat index not crazy like last week and maybe we hit 100 on Wednesday. So no doubt it has been much hotter than I expected for June but again this is not global warming Al talks about but just mother nature doing her normal stuff to keep this planet in balance. The media is just a platform and they have no clue about climate or the every day changes in the weather. Has it been warmer over the past 30 years and yes but mainly because of water vapor in the air which means more clouds and precip and warmer temps at night and milder temps in the arctic as more precip is falling in the form of snow. Such a short period and its like an eye dropper of water in the pacific ocean.

Nice to see you back Tim! A wonderful post as always and the Euro has absolutely been way too hot with its temp forecasts. Love the Al Gore reference too!

For rain chances this week, I am going with 40-50% POPS for Wed afternoon and evening as that weak front moves thru. For the stronger front late Sunday / Sun night... I am going with much higher coverage 60-70% chance. We all need some rain by now esp us in NKY where we got missed last week by all storms. Myself and CVG's last measurable rainfall came on 6/12 so it's been a week or so. Lawn starting to get that stressed look to it and if this week fails, brown out is next. Our soil here (horrible clay) does not hold the moisture as normal top soil does. If it's shaded no issues but where the sun bakes it day after day, a different story. I'm trying to not water the lawn to save money but at the same time, I don't want to lose it either. We need some help Mother Nature. The Dome needs a rest. We'll see.

Longer term... I like the prospects of a cool down as we approach July. The heat is going to be taking a break and it should last longer then 2 days this time in my opinion. Yes, the 90s will be back of course, it's summer, but late June to early July time period (including the long 4th of July Holiday weekend looks decent to me temp wise. Too early to gauge storm chances for fireworks parties and such but there looks to be a front coming in at some point. We'll continue to keep an eye on that as we go forward in time. My confidence on a cool down is increasing, storm chances TBD is the message here.

Clouds are helping to keep temps lower then I expected for today (which is good news for you LOL) Only 77 at CVG per the 1pm reading. Lower to middle 80s should work for most folks today. Dews are still nice in the lower to middle 50s. Enjoy it... tomorrow starts the increase in both temps and humidity with sunny skies expected.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:03 pm Good Afternoon and made it back from SC. Should be home for much of the summer. Had no chance to check on the weather since Thursday and wanted to see how the Euro and GFS were stacking up on temps as they were almost 10 degrees apart for highs for a few days this week. Winter time is one thing with timing of a cold front and that may affect highs one day but in the summer the models should never be that far apart. Looks like the gfs will continue to be winner this summer as the Euro is listening to much to Al Gore. With the somewhat lower dew points compared to last week and the ground is somewhat drier but not horrible I could see a day where we get to 93 or 94 but the heat index not crazy like last week and maybe we hit 100 on Wednesday. So no doubt it has been much hotter than I expected for June but again this is not global warming Al talks about but just mother nature doing her normal stuff to keep this planet in balance. The media is just a platform and they have no clue about climate or the every day changes in the weather. Has it been warmer over the past 30 years and yes but mainly because of water vapor in the air which means more clouds and precip and warmer temps at night and milder temps in the arctic as more precip is falling in the form of snow. Such a short period and its like an eye dropper of water in the pacific ocean.

Much of the above average temperatures have been night time temps running much above normal. I believe you are correct about the water vapor theory. Joe Bastardi is there first person I heard to mention the increased water vapor causing night time temperatures to increase.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:58 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:03 pm Good Afternoon and made it back from SC. Should be home for much of the summer. Had no chance to check on the weather since Thursday and wanted to see how the Euro and GFS were stacking up on temps as they were almost 10 degrees apart for highs for a few days this week. Winter time is one thing with timing of a cold front and that may affect highs one day but in the summer the models should never be that far apart. Looks like the gfs will continue to be winner this summer as the Euro is listening to much to Al Gore. With the somewhat lower dew points compared to last week and the ground is somewhat drier but not horrible I could see a day where we get to 93 or 94 but the heat index not crazy like last week and maybe we hit 100 on Wednesday. So no doubt it has been much hotter than I expected for June but again this is not global warming Al talks about but just mother nature doing her normal stuff to keep this planet in balance. The media is just a platform and they have no clue about climate or the every day changes in the weather. Has it been warmer over the past 30 years and yes but mainly because of water vapor in the air which means more clouds and precip and warmer temps at night and milder temps in the arctic as more precip is falling in the form of snow. Such a short period and its like an eye dropper of water in the pacific ocean.

Much of the above average temperatures have been night time temps running much above normal. I believe you are correct about the water vapor theory. Joe Bastardi is there first person I heard to mention the increased water vapor causing night time temperatures to increase.

Great post Doug... I agree with you and Tim on this. Our nighttime lows are certainly skewing more on the warmer side. Much more then the daytime highs. In addition to water vapor, UHI effect in some areas is also a contributing factor. NWS Sensors should be moved in some places. Take Louisville for a perfect example. The UHI effect is very real there with the official sensor being at Standiford Field in downtown Louisville. That temp and it's data is 100% not representative of their forecast area. You can say the same in some cases for CVG for the Cincinnati area. Dayton (DAY) and Columbus (CMH) probably have some of the same issues. LOU is a prime example because it's very obvious in the data how badly it is skewed due to bad sensor placement. If we could correct these issues, you'd see the numbers come back down a little bit in my opinion and the data would not be skewed so badly.

12Z Euro has scattered storms Wed and decent coverage for Sunday. Temps are still too warm for this upcoming week but we all know that anyway going in.

82 at CVG today, 81 here. Clouds are finally beginning to mix out so expect much warmer temps tomorrow as a result. Humidity will slowly increase as well, but it won't be as awful thankfully as last week was.

After watching channel 5 and they show 98 and 99 the next two days I told my wife I would streak in the neighborhood if it reaches 99 on Wednesday. Her reply was why would you punish the neighbors.

I saw yesterday on NWS's outlook re precip and temps nationally for 6/24-6/28 that the Southwest states i.e. should get some much needed relief rainfall-wise with a much above normal zone out that way.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:11 pm After watching channel 5 and they show 98 and 99 the next two days I told my wife I would streak in the neighborhood if it reaches 99 on Wednesday. Her reply was why would you punish the neighbors.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:18 pm I saw yesterday on NWS's outlook re precip and temps nationally for 6/24-6/28 that the Southwest states i.e. should get some much needed relief rainfall-wise with a much above normal zone out that way.

Yea , the monsoon season is expected to get off to an excellent start in the 4 corners areas over the next few weeks at least. Good news for that region. JMA has been all over that prediction for some time now.