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Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:00 am
by Bgoney
Seasonal summary for the PV from the weekend.......
The latest daily 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed is still quite some way above the average and on this day stands at 43.6 m/s which is +21.439 m/s above the long term mean for 19th February and this puts up 6th on the daily list for today. This continues the general trend we have seen really the entire winter so far. Since there's no sign of any SSW then it seems above average figures are very much likely to continue .
The latest rolling 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed which is the rolling average from 1st November through to 19th February for 2022 stands at an impressive 41.987 m/s which is +11.462 m/s above the expected rolling mean by this stage of the season and puts 2022 into 3rd position overall and the 3rd strongest vortex year on the record so far. This continues the general upwards trend in positions. 2022 has climbed from 11th position on 18th January to 3rd by 19th February and has steadily closed the gap to 2016 throughout when the gap was 9.019 m/s on 18th January and now on the latest 19th February it has closed down to just 3.52 m/s. The threat is there to having the overall strongest vortex year on the record if we don't see things slow down soon.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:21 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:00 am
Seasonal summary for the PV from the weekend.......
The latest daily 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed is still quite some way above the average and on this day stands at 43.6 m/s which is +21.439 m/s above the long term mean for 19th February and this puts up 6th on the daily list for today. This continues the general trend we have seen really the entire winter so far. Since there's no sign of any SSW then it seems above average figures are very much likely to continue .
The latest rolling 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed which is the rolling average from 1st November through to 19th February for 2022 stands at an impressive 41.987 m/s which is +11.462 m/s above the expected rolling mean by this stage of the season and puts 2022 into 3rd position overall and the 3rd strongest vortex year on the record so far. This continues the general upwards trend in positions. 2022 has climbed from 11th position on 18th January to 3rd by 19th February and has steadily closed the gap to 2016 throughout when the gap was 9.019 m/s on 18th January and now on the latest 19th February it has closed down to just 3.52 m/s. The threat is there to having the overall strongest vortex year on the record if we don't see things slow down soon.
That is wild and lucky we had a La Nina winter are we would be like western Europe and hardly any winter at all.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:21 pm
by tron777
Clouds are increasing ahead of the first rain maker... 59 at CVG currently. Should get a few more degrees out of it today.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:22 pm
by Wxlrnr
In the last 30 minutes went from mostly sunny to solid overcast here. Sun felt pretty nice.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:13 pm
by tron777
Partly cloudy... some sun getting thru again. Low 60s... gorgeous right now!
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:18 pm
by young pup
Seen people out in shorts and t shirts up here. Not all but a few. Others t shirts and pants at least. Meanwhile, Sweatshirt and thermal pants here. LOL
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:46 pm
by tron777
young pup wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Seen people out in shorts and t shirts up here. Not all but a few. Others t shirts and pants at least. Meanwhile, Sweatshirt and thermal pants here. LOL
It is nice... was outside tidying up the yard since today was the pick day of the week. Mud city coming to my hood. :axe:
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:30 pm
by young pup
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:46 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Seen people out in shorts and t shirts up here. Not all but a few. Others t shirts and pants at least. Meanwhile, Sweatshirt and thermal pants here. LOL
It is nice... was outside tidying up the yard since today was the pick day of the week. Mud city coming to my hood. :axe:
I was outside most of the day too. Only working on snow equipment.
Didn't want to bother with the yard as my neighbors are trashed too and it will just blow into my yard.
Definitely felt good. Both windows in the truck were down to air it out.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:53 pm
by CINCINNATI01
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:09 pm
by MVWxObserver
Happy Patriots Day!
Spring can't get here soon enough imo!
Currently 50 here in G'ville and progged to hold steady around 50 into the overnight / Tues morning.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:46 pm
by tron777
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:53 pm
Screenshot_20220221-175128_Chrome.jpg
18zgfs
Be careful of some of those maps. A lot of that is sleet if you look at the soundings or model text data.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:32 pm
by mainevilleweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:46 pm
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:53 pm
Screenshot_20220221-175128_Chrome.jpg
18zgfs
Be careful of some of those maps. A lot of that is sleet if you look at the soundings or model text data.
I don't want to hear that word ever again.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:39 pm
by CINCINNATI01
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:46 pm
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:53 pm
Screenshot_20220221-175128_Chrome.jpg
18zgfs
Be careful of some of those maps. A lot of that is sleet if you look at the soundings or model text data.
Just thought I'd post it after seeing northern Arkansas go into a wsw
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:59 am
by MVWxObserver
Speaking of AR ...a tale of two seasons of course this week.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:01 am
by diane3230
Thunder in Loveland, 1:58 am
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:25 am
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:32 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:46 pm
CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:53 pm
Screenshot_20220221-175128_Chrome.jpg
18zgfs
Be careful of some of those maps. A lot of that is sleet if you look at the soundings or model text data.
I don't want to hear that word ever again.
You're telling me LOL
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:25 am
by tron777
diane3230 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:01 am
Thunder in Loveland, 1:58 am
Heard a little overnight also here... 0.25" at CVG per the 6am reading.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:08 am
by tron777
A break currently but more heavy rain and thunder lurks off to the west. TOR watch even out for West KY and West TN this morning.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:20 am
by cloudy72
Heard thunder several times overnight. So far 0.65”
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:22 am
by tron777
0.27" imby as of 7am. CVG 0.26" Looks to be a noisy afternoon. Heavy rain and / or thunder.
A classic Spring in February day.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:08 am
by tpweather
The one good thing so far with today's system is it seems to be moving a little quicker than models showed. Still plenty of rainfall but the speed may help in keeping us from getting some of the higher totals that were forecast. No doubt we are in the crossfire and still well over an inch but getting a few breaks in between.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:11 am
by tron777
Had a half inch in the books here as of 8:45 am. Will check again at lunch.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:35 am
by dce
According to this website the MJO is almost in phase 4. This could potentially spell doom for those, like DT, who where going with the forecast that the MJO would go from phase 3 into the circle of death. No sustained period of cold and winter weather is likely if this continues into phase 4,5, and 6.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:01 pm
by tron777
1.32" here with moderate rain. 58 degrees.
Re: February 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:14 pm
by young pup
It's a wet 2'sday. Seeing lots of standing water in yards and parks.
