15 degrees this morning... got to love getting that ground prepped!
The overnight thinking from the boys:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The ridge axis will shift off to the east tonight with some
increase in high and mid level clouds overnight ahead of the
approaching low pressure system.
There are still some timing and placement issues between the
models with the track and strength of the low but the general
consensus is for it to move across the mid Mississippi Valley
and into the far western Tennessee Valley through the day on
Sunday. A developing low level jet ahead this will begin to
nose up into the mid Ohio Valley through Sunday afternoon. Low
level WAA and good convergence along the nose of this will
allow for snow to develop northeastward into mainly southern
portions of our area through Sunday afternoon. With this initial
band of snow, several inches of snow accumulation will be
possible through Sunday afternoon for areas along and south of
the Ohio River. Surface temperatures will remain below freezing
through Sunday afternoon with daytime highs in the mid to upper
20s. However, as we begin to warm up a bit off the surface, some
sleet may begin to mix in with the snow later in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning was done for the majority of
our counties just south of the I-70 corridor. These counties
represent the highest confidence in higher-end winter weather
impacts. Given uncertainty with our northern counties, we still left
a portion of our central and west-central OH counties in a Watch.
Sunday night is when the highest QPF axis moves into the ILN fa. All
of our counties should be observing wintry precip by midnight, with
heavy rates expected across the area. We continue to try and hone in
on the `most likely` track of the surface low to gauge p-types for
our counties.
Right now, it still appears that southern OH / northern KY have the
highest probabilities of getting hit the hardest from winter precip
(thus leading to a Winter Storm Warning upgrade). However, northern
KY and far southern OH may not observe the highest snow totals due
to warm air intruding in the lower levels of the atmosphere above
sub-freezing surface temps - creating favorable thermal profiles for
sleet and even freezing rain. Best chances for freezing rain impacts
will be south of the OH River, with more sleet expected along/north
of the River. There is the potential for freezing rain amounts to
approach 1/4" inch, mainly for our far southern tier of counties
(Owen, KY and areas east).
There will be a sharp cut-off in the mixed precip somewhere between
southern/central OH, where a band of very heavy snowfall will form.
This may result in snow totals exceeding 8" for some in portions of
southeastern IN, southern and/or west-central OH, which would
inevitably create a sharp gradient in snow totals across southern
OH. The QPF footprint starts to decrease near and north of I-70,
keeping snow totals on the lower extreme that far north. However,
locations near/north of the I-70 corridor may still observe snow
amounts in the 3-6" range, which is still a substantial amount that
will create significant travel impacts.
Wintry precip is expected to become lighter in overall intensity by
Monday morning. However, keep in mind that model solutions continue
to develop a deformation band on the backside of this low pressure
system, leading to another round of moderate to heavy snowfall for
some during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. This will
continue to result in travel disruptions through most of the day
Monday into Monday night given the cold ground temperatures. The
snow is expected to begin tapering off Monday night from west to
east.
