Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:55 pm The speed of the current system seems to have sped up so that helps in amounts not getting out of hand. Friday looks dry

I agree Tim. Rain moves back in Sat afternoon and night and it ends as some flakes Sun morning. That is kind of my thinking right now. I will go with a half inch for rainfall amounts with the next system. Lighter NW, heavier SE as per the usual.

A nice mild period over the mainland USA while much of Alaska is sitting between -20 - -50 over the past few days. Once again Mother Nature balancing things out. Alaska looks to remain cold over the next 5 days and then do we see signs of the cold heading back into western and northern Canada and then southward.

GFS continues with the back and forth in the extended from run to run.

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:28 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:18 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:04 pm I'm just wondering if we can get it to be any uglier outside. What a stretch of depressing weather we are going to be in.

Hi JP,

It looks like our next chance of seeing any sunshine will be Wed 1/31.

there is always sunshine. But, you might have to take a drive to fiind it. Maybe at a beach?

I hear ya, bro!

CVG got to 58, DAY 57 and CMH 59 on Thurs.

Dreary stretch continues and don’t see a mostly sunny day any where in sight. A Cold rain returns Saturday afternoon and Sunday. No changes for Sunday with a chance for precip ending as a mix or flakes for the region . Models have shown temps in the 34-40 degree range region wide for Sunday no matter where the low passes. Still See a lot of 40s next week for highs. First week of February cvg normals are around 41 and 23

Some nice rainfall totals!

A nice week of rain that is widespread will no doubt help out dry conditions over the past 9 months or so. Lucky for us locally we got in on some of the heaviest and more steady rains with both systems and ended up with a nice total over 2 inches. Some minor flooding I am sure of but for the most part have not heard of to much widespread flooding. Could add another 1/2 or so Saturday into early Sunday.

I saw a -55 this morning in Alaska and good to see them get in on the colder temps this season as they had been rather mild for them this winter. An extended period of cold as well. That is the cold we need to head this way in February and of course nothing like -55 but if we can get the correct blocking and a few storms to bring down the cold air we could see another 2-3 weeks of cold and stormy weather. The storminess part of the forecast for next month is the easy part but getting the cold is the key between weeks of rain or storms that bring us many types of precip.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:45 am A nice week of rain that is widespread will no doubt help out dry conditions over the past 9 months or so. Lucky for us locally we got in on some of the heaviest and more steady rains with both systems and ended up with a nice total over 2 inches. Some minor flooding I am sure of but for the most part have not heard of to much widespread flooding. Could add another 1/2 or so Saturday into early Sunday.

I saw a -55 this morning in Alaska and good to see them get in on the colder temps this season as they had been rather mild for them this winter. An extended period of cold as well. That is the cold we need to head this way in February and of course nothing like -55 but if we can get the correct blocking and a few storms to bring down the cold air we could see another 2-3 weeks of cold and stormy weather. The storminess part of the forecast for next month is the easy part but getting the cold is the key between weeks of rain or storms that bring us many types of precip.

The waves of rain were spread out which made conditions unfavorable for flooding which is good! We got all the benefits of a good drink of water without the negative consequences. We don't always have that luxury when it comes to heavy rains around here.

00z GFS came in with a more plausible temperature outlook versus the colder run it showed previously.

I revieved 2.66" of rain this week! Nice amount

mikeyp wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:01 am I revieved 2.66" of rain this week! Nice amount

Nice! There was pretty solid model agreement on heavier amounts falling in the tri-state. Glad it panned out!

Long range GFS and Euro continue to lock in on the cold returning mid Feb. JB thinks we may rival Feb 2021 and of course anything is possible, but that's pretty bold. That was an extreme event. I highly doubt we see anything like that. Colder than normal looks likely though as many of us have been talking about for a bit now. How cold is TBD as Tim stated.

Extended GFS NAO forecast. Control goes super negative!

Trev we get these really cold outbreak and whether its in Siberia or at the moment in Alaska they are hard to budge and that is the case at the moment. Got even colder than I expected and will need a couple of big storms to get that cold to move and at the moment and for the next 5 days at least that is not happening. Juneau got clobbered with snow earlier this week though they will turn milder as usual. This cold even extends out to the southwest part of the state which sometimes is spared the brutal temps. Models will have some hiccups on when this cold heads southeast and though I thought by next weekend some of the cold would enter the northern plains I may be a few days to early. We need those 2-3 weeks in February to save the winter in terms of snow as January will be way below in terms of snow and just around average temp wise. December was very mild so hopefully February comes in below normal for temps and if so you can end up with an average on temps but getting to average on snowfall will not be easy

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:10 am Extended GFS NAO forecast. Control goes super negative!

Great post Trev and that has been the winter with extremes on the NAO and AO.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:06 am Long range GFS and Euro continue to lock in on the cold returning mid Feb. JB thinks we may rival Feb 2021 and of course anything is possible, but that's pretty bold. That was an extreme event. I highly doubt we see anything like that. Colder than normal looks likely though as many of us have been talking about for a bit now. How cold is TBD as Tim stated.

I will take a hard pass on Feb 2021. That was our major sleet storm that I had a hell of a time removing from my driveway. 4-6" of sleet accumulated. Remember that one? All models had us getting snow. Then the NAM locked in on a sleet solution and the rest of the models followed suit.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:20 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:06 am Long range GFS and Euro continue to lock in on the cold returning mid Feb. JB thinks we may rival Feb 2021 and of course anything is possible, but that's pretty bold. That was an extreme event. I highly doubt we see anything like that. Colder than normal looks likely though as many of us have been talking about for a bit now. How cold is TBD as Tim stated.

I will take a hard pass on Feb 2021. That was our major sleet storm that I had a hell of a time removing from my driveway. 4-6" of sleet accumulated. Remember that one? All models had us getting snow. Then the NAM locked in on a sleet solution and the rest of the models followed suit.

Hey Les and not a fan of the sleet or frz/rain. I do worry that if we are on the western edge of the cold in February we could end up with more of a mix bag instead of plain snow. Again no way of seeing that this far away but the pattern if that were to occur would no doubt lead to some overriding events as the STJ looks very busy in February and the GOM seems to have awoke after many months of just laying low.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:15 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:10 am Extended GFS NAO forecast. Control goes super negative!

Great post Trev and that has been the winter with extremes on the NAO and AO.

Totally agree guys... I've been saying for a while also that I like the second half of Feb much better then the first half for cold and snow chances. Thinking sometime after the 10th is an early prelim call for now. Could be delayed until Valentine's Day too which wouldn't shock me. DT seems to think that the pattern will change earlier then expected so we'll see as usual how that goes over the next 2 weeks. We should be seeing more positive signs by then if something is going to get cooking again in terms of blocking.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:20 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:06 am Long range GFS and Euro continue to lock in on the cold returning mid Feb. JB thinks we may rival Feb 2021 and of course anything is possible, but that's pretty bold. That was an extreme event. I highly doubt we see anything like that. Colder than normal looks likely though as many of us have been talking about for a bit now. How cold is TBD as Tim stated.

I will take a hard pass on Feb 2021. That was our major sleet storm that I had a hell of a time removing from my driveway. 4-6" of sleet accumulated. Remember that one? All models had us getting snow. Then the NAM locked in on a sleet solution and the rest of the models followed suit.

Hey Les and not a fan of the sleet or frz/rain. I do worry that if we are on the western edge of the cold in February we could end up with more of a mix bag instead of plain snow. Again no way of seeing that this far away but the pattern if that were to occur would no doubt lead to some overriding events as the STJ looks very busy in February and the GOM seems to have awoke after many months of just laying low.

No doubt Tim! The moisture shouldn't be a problem going forward. just the temps. We still have a solid 6 weeks of climo left on our side IMO before chances start to really get slim.

MJO is in Phase 6 as of 1/24 per the Aussies. Some models keep it moving into the colder phases so our mid Feb call would be solid if that is correct. Other models stall it out in Phase 7 which in February is no good. I agree with the MJO moving right along. As I have said many times, the models have been garbage for MJO forecasts. They have been too weak with the amplitude and they keep stalling it out which has not happened. It keeps moving which is good news for us if we want things to indeed change down the road.

DT's thoughts....

Les you have mentioned how the MJO has been underestimating the strength all season and you are correct. Need this to continue over the next couple of weeks and though its not the say all in forecasting the mjo can be helpful in predicting possible outcomes. I have not seen any of DT's recent reports but I have been earlier than most on the cold returning to the lower 48 and really thought by next weekend that would start to happen in the northern plains so I will be too early but like you said is it more towards the middle of the month. Just give me two snowstorms in February that are more than 4 inches each and that will help but please no sleet storms or ice events.