Absolute Vorticity

WOW! 12Z GEFS really showing a massive SSW event 1st week of January. IF correct... we could see some big time cold shots late Jan and into Feb. Maybe we won't see the classic January Thaw this year? We'll see!

12Z GEFS at 500 MB 1st week of January. -EPO / -AO / -NAO and an active STJ. Wow!

Those are two nice looking maps Les. Going to be very busy this January.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 1:55 pm WOW! 12Z GEFS really showing a massive SSW event 1st week of January. IF correct... we could see some big time cold shots late Jan and into Feb. Maybe we won't see the classic January Thaw this year? We'll see!


GEFS SSW.jpg

I had a January thaw in my Winter Forecast, but I am doubting that it will actually happen.

Trev / Tim... I agree. The January Thaw maybe in jeopardy and we are certainly going to be getting busy on here very shortly.

Our thaw may be Christmas Day lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 1:59 pm 12Z GEFS at 500 MB 1st week of January. -EPO / -AO / -NAO and an active STJ. Wow!


GEFS.jpg

I'm my opinion, above average snowfall for January is highly likely if that look actually comes to fruition. I'm not saying we would necessarily get a big storm, but with energy constantly rolling off the Pacific I don't know how we wouldn't do well snowfall wise.

The system for Christmas day is ramping up and would not be surprised to see winter storm warnings or even a blizzard warning for parts of the central and northern plains into the upper mid-west. Tons of energy and tons of wind and hopefully it puts down a nice layer of snow on the bare ground in that area. Doug I agree about above average for January and yes we know snow can be hard to predict and one big storm can hit or miss you and make the difference but I would gladly take 20 inches and be happy. Maybe that will be my over/under for snow in January.Guess I got football on my mind lol Just to add when you see energy come into the west coast it sometimes gets beat up by the mountains so it looks unorganized for a period but when it emerges the energy is still there and if conditions are good a rather strong storm can form and models have been heading in that direction.

Looking at the latest Tellies from today the AO is going even more negative and the NAO looks to go negative after the first of they year as well. The pna stays slightly positive. These were most likely taken into account by the models and why we saw a colder look than the previous 24 hours. Are they correct is the next question but the pattern suggest they are correct

dce wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 2:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 1:59 pm 12Z GEFS at 500 MB 1st week of January. -EPO / -AO / -NAO and an active STJ. Wow!


GEFS.jpg

I'm my opinion, above average snowfall for January is highly likely if that look actually comes to fruition. I'm not saying we would necessarily get a big storm, but with energy constantly rolling off the Pacific I don't know how we wouldn't do well snowfall wise.

It will depend on how strong the cold is. Too cold and you face suppression. Seasonal cold like I am expecting then we should have some fun.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:29 pm Looking at the latest Tellies from today the AO is going even more negative and the NAO looks to go negative after the first of they year as well. The pna stays slightly positive. These were most likely taken into account by the models and why we saw a colder look than the previous 24 hours. Are they correct is the next question but the pattern suggest they are correct

I just saw that... very nice! There are some ratters in there but some of the 8-14 day CPC analogs do look good including January of 1985, 2003, and 1976.

CVG reached 49, DAY 48 and CMH 46 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:36 pm CVG reached 49, DAY 48 and CMH 46 today.

I hit 49 here today. 47 currently with some mist / fog. Watch out for patchy dense fog overnight and in the morning. The further West you go the worse the fog will be. After that mixes out a nice afternoon with maybe even a touch of sunshine. High in the lower 60s expected. Temps will remain steady overnight so we will start out very mild tomorrow.

Models are starting to come in with more moisture for our Friday snow. Canadian is the snowiest but the others are starting to catch up. I will have my first call snowfall forecast for Friday posted this afternoon.

Blizzard warnings in Nebraska and southern South Dakota.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 6:45 am Models are starting to come in with more moisture for our Friday snow. Canadian is the snowiest but the others are starting to catch up. I will have my first call snowfall forecast for Friday posted this afternoon.

Perfect! I figured something decent might be showing up for Friday. I really like that upper low and on some guidance is actually stalls for a bit bringing in more moisture. I like up to 1" right now to play it safe since we are so far out in model time, but I wouldn't mind bumping that up of course. Our Jan 4th S slider is still showing up too.

Good morning to you all and Merry Christmas to everyone! As you can see from the above posts, the news is still looking good for snow lovers.

Good Morning and Merry Christmas to everyone. Love seeing the blizzard in the central plains. This was a true case of a piece of energy that was very strong when it came onto the west coast and got beaten up by the mountains. It will reform and the energy just needs a booster to get started again and that is the case here. I do like the system late in the week and Les I agree up to an inch at the moment but no doubt it will look and feel like winter. The first week of January looks busy and busier than what models show. The models are going to have a hard time in getting the two jets to interact so you see a very messy extended. That is where met's and forecasters need to be on top on their game and looking at every piece of energy heading into the USA.

Since our pattern change is getting closer and we now have some wintry events to track, I thought this graphic might be fitting.

Les love the 12 stages and its so sad because its true lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 7:54 am Les love the 12 stages and its so sad because its true lol.

It is! LOL I saw that on the internet in a Facebook weather group and had to share it on our forum.

Check this out... 6Z GEFS actually splits the PV by Jan 6-7th. Wouldn't that be something if it actually occurred.

Starting to see signs of cold weather for the western 1/2 or so of Canada this week plus snow before hand. This is good news as the PV has moved more towards this side of the earth. Again the cold is just getting much of that area to near normal but that is still cold. Still cold in eastern Siberia but that has been moving east slowly. If the PV splits then we understand it could take a period of time to feel the colder air if the PV ends up in Canada but usually before that period you tend to get a short warm up for a few days. So maybe the first 7-10 days of January we are cold but more on the normal side then a brief warm up before the cold with the PV moves in here. So maybe by the 20th or so that moves in and usually with a PV that has split wherever the cold spills to will have an extended period of cold weather. Maybe that lasts through the first half of February.

Again only Mother Nature has the time period and what will happen but hopefully we keep the mjo in phases 8-2 for the next 45 days and we should be okay.

Just talked to my son in Wisconsin and he mentioned it has been so warm up there that some of the ski slopes are closed. This is a big part of the economy in that part of the world.

Perfect North Slopes and Mad River Mountain e.g. a slow start, too.