Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:30 pm For the 25-26th... EPS Mean is a tad too far West for my taste but we can worry about that one later as I said before about the OP Euro having it be more suppressed. We've got some interesting times coming if these trends can hold guys! Hang in there!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:30 pm For the 25-26th... EPS Mean is a tad too far West for my taste but we can worry about that one later as I said before about the OP Euro having it be more suppressed. We've got some interesting times coming if these trends can hold guys! Hang in there!

Hey Les, one thing I don't like about our winter storms are the cutters and the swing and misses. At least with the swing and misses there's that possibility of the NW trends. I hope the EURO trend around day 10 with the strong Arctic front isn't a Christmas repeat. I mean, would love to see enough cold air for big snows without those way below 0 windchills. But, It's hard to get everything perfect!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:25 pm Good Afternoon and Joe you are correct about swings and misses. At least then we are usually on the colder side but with cutters very seldom does it work in our favor though like this week the first is cutting and the second one well has a chance. Les we were just a week too early on the pattern change and of course back in Dec the models were a week too early so we can call in even. Good thing I will be in town several more weeks and need a few weeks of shoveling to keep me in shape lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:26 pm Les over the last few weeks as the PV was getting strong I was watching to see where the cold was trying to go. Yes it moved towards western Siberia and the Baltic states and that is never ever a good place for us in terms of winter weather. The good thing was it only lasted a few days and then the cold was heading towards eastern Siberia and now looks like its heading to this side of the planet over the next few weeks. Sure it can always move again and no doubt I will be watching but once it went into western Siberia and shifted out of there rather quickly I felt much better. Another area we talk about is Alaska and this year sort of strange where we both have been cold and mild at the same time and usually when they get really cold we tend to warm up. What I see though over the next week is a milder trend for them but nothing crazy as of yet. This gave me more confidence the cold was not going to reside there for a period of time.

So yes Alaska and the eastern USA can be cold at times together but very seldom will the eastern USA and western Russia or the Baltic states be cold or warm at the same time during the winter. Sure it has happened and there is overlap of course but in general I have live by this rule since getting the Sunday paper back in the late 60's and 70's and that was the only way anyone interested in the weather could make forecasts unless of course you went to college and that was your field of study.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:00 pm Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:00 pm Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

I'm watching that but as I said before, I'll believe it when I see it. Models have been so bad with forecasting the MJO that it is hard to trust it.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:06 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:00 pm Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

I'm watching that but as I said before, I'll believe it when I see it. Models have been so bad with forecasting the MJO that it is hard to trust it.

I agree 100p/c. The upcoming pattern fits the mjo but will the two coincide. Really not a big deal but the pattern is the most important part and starting to see different NWS offices adding more winter weather in their extended forecasts and Kevin on 5 of course mentioned it and of course he does use the Euro

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:04 am hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:04 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:04 am hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:07 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:04 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:04 am hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

I am speaking for myself here, but we haven't even gotten to the pattern yet so I'm not concerned about when it ends. We've got the rain tonight and the wind / frontal passage tomorrow to deal with. Then of course, Sunday and around Tues night / Wed of next week for potential snow systems. Then an arctic front will try and bring in a batch of fresh arctic air to the region and then we'll see if we can get a system around months end or early Feb while the cold is around. After that... we are getting pretty far out there in time so not concerned at this point. We've got enough to watch over the next 2 weeks as it is.