January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Wow.... we don't want to sleep on the next rain maker though. Kind of looks like the last one where the storms were strong but thankfully weakened as they moved in (minus Grant Co of course)

[Bgoney]

EPS low cluster looking good

floop-epsens-2023011712.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif

[winterstormjoe]

For the 25-26th... EPS Mean is a tad too far West for my taste but we can worry about that one later as I said before about the OP Euro having it be more suppressed. We've got some interesting times coming if these trends can hold guys! Hang in there!

Hey Les, one thing I don't like about our winter storms are the cutters and the swing and misses. At least with the swing and misses there's that possibility of the NW trends. I hope the EURO trend around day 10 with the strong Arctic front isn't a Christmas repeat. I mean, would love to see enough cold air for big snows without those way below 0 windchills. But, It's hard to get everything perfect!

[tron777]

For the 25-26th... EPS Mean is a tad too far West for my taste but we can worry about that one later as I said before about the OP Euro having it be more suppressed. We've got some interesting times coming if these trends can hold guys! Hang in there!

Hey Les, one thing I don't like about our winter storms are the cutters and the swing and misses. At least with the swing and misses there's that possibility of the NW trends. I hope the EURO trend around day 10 with the strong Arctic front isn't a Christmas repeat. I mean, would love to see enough cold air for big snows without those way below 0 windchills. But, It's hard to get everything perfect!

I wouldn't worry about anything past Day 5 honestly Joe. Models have not been very good beyond the Day 5-7 period. The Sunday system is in that Day 5-6 period now so anything after that is highly suspect especially with the pattern change coming up.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and Joe you are correct about swings and misses. At least then we are usually on the colder side but with cutters very seldom does it work in our favor though like this week the first is cutting and the second one well has a chance. Les we were just a week too early on the pattern change and of course back in Dec the models were a week too early so we can call in even. Good thing I will be in town several more weeks and need a few weeks of shoveling to keep me in shape lol.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and Joe you are correct about swings and misses. At least then we are usually on the colder side but with cutters very seldom does it work in our favor though like this week the first is cutting and the second one well has a chance. Les we were just a week too early on the pattern change and of course back in Dec the models were a week too early so we can call in even. Good thing I will be in town several more weeks and need a few weeks of shoveling to keep me in shape lol.

I'm honestly happy about only being a week off especially since we sometimes make these calls from 2-3 weeks out. That really isn't too shabby at all if you ask me. The devil is in the details so we'll see how things look for Sunday as time goes on. Right now, we know the GFS is the odd man out. Euro has the southern look we want and most of the models seem to be trending in that direction, again minus the OP GFS. Believe me, that doesn't break my heart at all. In the old days, if you get the foreign model trifecta, you usually were good to go! With the model upgrades and this Triple Dip Nina winter we're in... does the foreign model trifecta still hold true? Sunday's system will be a very good test. I just can't see where both of these systems will cut. If Sundays cuts, that should open the door for the 25-26th. If we get hit by the Sunday system then we could get missed for the 25-26th and that's fine. If we get missed to the SE then you know at least it will be cold to help retain whatever snowpack we get. Again, the two things to watch this week is the location of the PV (We'd like it as close to Hudson's Bay as possible) and the PNA Ridge as close to the West Coast as possible.

[tpweather]

Les over the last few weeks as the PV was getting strong I was watching to see where the cold was trying to go. Yes it moved towards western Siberia and the Baltic states and that is never ever a good place for us in terms of winter weather. The good thing was it only lasted a few days and then the cold was heading towards eastern Siberia and now looks like its heading to this side of the planet over the next few weeks. Sure it can always move again and no doubt I will be watching but once it went into western Siberia and shifted out of there rather quickly I felt much better. Another area we talk about is Alaska and this year sort of strange where we both have been cold and mild at the same time and usually when they get really cold we tend to warm up. What I see though over the next week is a milder trend for them but nothing crazy as of yet. This gave me more confidence the cold was not going to reside there for a period of time.

So yes Alaska and the eastern USA can be cold at times together but very seldom will the eastern USA and western Russia or the Baltic states be cold or warm at the same time during the winter. Sure it has happened and there is overlap of course but in general I have live by this rule since getting the Sunday paper back in the late 60's and 70's and that was the only way anyone interested in the weather could make forecasts unless of course you went to college and that was your field of study.

[tron777]

Les over the last few weeks as the PV was getting strong I was watching to see where the cold was trying to go. Yes it moved towards western Siberia and the Baltic states and that is never ever a good place for us in terms of winter weather. The good thing was it only lasted a few days and then the cold was heading towards eastern Siberia and now looks like its heading to this side of the planet over the next few weeks. Sure it can always move again and no doubt I will be watching but once it went into western Siberia and shifted out of there rather quickly I felt much better. Another area we talk about is Alaska and this year sort of strange where we both have been cold and mild at the same time and usually when they get really cold we tend to warm up. What I see though over the next week is a milder trend for them but nothing crazy as of yet. This gave me more confidence the cold was not going to reside there for a period of time.

So yes Alaska and the eastern USA can be cold at times together but very seldom will the eastern USA and western Russia or the Baltic states be cold or warm at the same time during the winter. Sure it has happened and there is overlap of course but in general I have live by this rule since getting the Sunday paper back in the late 60's and 70's and that was the only way anyone interested in the weather could make forecasts unless of course you went to college and that was your field of study.

The location of the PV on the EPS is about perfect for those storm systems we are discussing (Sunday onwards). Hopefully the period from around the 22nd-23th thru mid February will pay dividends. I can think of a total of 4 systems just thru the end of January alone that we need to be keeping our eyes on. The STJ is going to be active sending in a lot of moisture from the Gulf. It's been a while since we've had some Gulf lows. If we are on the right side of the boundary and the rain is like 50-100 miles south of us, we are going to have an awesome time! We'll see what happens.

[tron777]

We'll see if the Happy Hour GFS gets its act together or not here shortly...

[tron777]

18Z GFS is struggling with the Sunday system and you can certainly see it on this run. It doesn't know what to do? You have a low popping up on and off cutting thru MO, ILL, and into Northern OH. But you can also see the low popping down south over S LA like the foreign models have had. So the OP GFS just doesn't know where to put the low in other words. An easy toss into the trash can and the rest of the run no matter what it shows can be ignored.

[tron777]

18Z GEFS Mean for the SLP position for Sunday's system is a hair slower and further south vs 12Z. Baby steps I suppose.

[tpweather]

Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

[tron777]

Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

I'm watching that but as I said before, I'll believe it when I see it. Models have been so bad with forecasting the MJO that it is hard to trust it.

[tpweather]

Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

I'm watching that but as I said before, I'll believe it when I see it. Models have been so bad with forecasting the MJO that it is hard to trust it.

I agree 100p/c. The upcoming pattern fits the mjo but will the two coincide. Really not a big deal but the pattern is the most important part and starting to see different NWS offices adding more winter weather in their extended forecasts and Kevin on 5 of course mentioned it and of course he does use the Euro

[tron777]

Les have you seen the forecast for the mjo. Shows it going from phase 1-3 and then circling back around. Have no ideal if this is correct but that is almost a perfect mjo forecast this time of year

I'm watching that but as I said before, I'll believe it when I see it. Models have been so bad with forecasting the MJO that it is hard to trust it.

I agree 100p/c. The upcoming pattern fits the mjo but will the two coincide. Really not a big deal but the pattern is the most important part and starting to see different NWS offices adding more winter weather in their extended forecasts and Kevin on 5 of course mentioned it and of course he does use the Euro

Meanwhile, ILN currently must be using the GFS for Sunday. This is my Zone Forecast:

Sunday - Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday Night - Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s.

[Bgoney]

Short range models in pretty good agreement how the rain and possible thunder play out later today , overnight and mid afternoon tomorrow

20230118_073608.gif

[Bgoney]

For Sunday, Oz EU came in a bit warmer than it's 12z at both surface and upper level temps. Just a degree or two but we don't have much wiggle room . Snow/mix north of 71 and a snow/mix/rain southeast for now with almost 5 days to go .

[tron777]

Good morning all! The weather is anything but boring for the region. The warmer pattern is almost over with this next system coming in. Rain, some thunder, windy conditions and even a few flakes to end the event. Another period where we see 4 seasons in one day.

After this system passes, we are watching Sunday for snow or rain depending on the track. Then again next week around the 25th or so ahead of a blast of cold, arctic air. Lots of fun ahead and we maybe making a thread for Sunday after the 12Z data comes in.

[tron777]

0Z GEFS SLP Cluster - Top image versus the 6Z run - bottom image. You can see the clear shift southward towards the foreign model solutions for Sunday.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

[tron777]

Here is the 0Z EPS for Sunday... again, SLP clusters. 6Z run is pay I believe so I don't have that one.

eps_lowlocs_us_20.png

[airwolf76]

hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

[tron777]

[young pup]

hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

[tron777]

hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

I am speaking for myself here, but we haven't even gotten to the pattern yet so I'm not concerned about when it ends. We've got the rain tonight and the wind / frontal passage tomorrow to deal with. Then of course, Sunday and around Tues night / Wed of next week for potential snow systems. Then an arctic front will try and bring in a batch of fresh arctic air to the region and then we'll see if we can get a system around months end or early Feb while the cold is around. After that... we are getting pretty far out there in time so not concerned at this point. We've got enough to watch over the next 2 weeks as it is.

[young pup]

hope we can score in the next 2 weeks. long range models are showing a torch for most of February

I don't even trust the short range models at this point. The long range models are like throwing darts at this point. But, it would not surprise me.

I am speaking for myself here, but we haven't even gotten to the pattern yet so I'm not concerned about when it ends. We've got the rain tonight and the wind / frontal passage tomorrow to deal with. Then of course, Sunday and around Tues night / Wed of next week for potential snow systems. Then an arctic front will try and bring in a batch of fresh arctic air to the region and then we'll see if we can get a system around months end or early Feb while the cold is around. After that... we are getting pretty far out there in time so not concerned at this point. We've got enough to watch over the next 2 weeks as it is.

Shoot, I'm taking it one day at a time. It's Ohio after all and wait 5 minutes and the weather will change.