Absolute Vorticity

Ha I just got home and saw the 18z GFS. Mercy sakes! Lol

I'm on the record saying I think it cuts, but the strength of this low and the associated temps still allow that to be a possible white Christmas for us. When there is a great divide on low track between the Euro and GFS six days out, I'll almost always ride with Dr. No. That being said...

Holy smokes, that 18z GFS is a thing of beauty.

0Z not as impressive. Still gives us several inches, but nothing like the 18z. Looks like the storm moved more east on this run.

00z GFS has eliminated our low, and transfers the energy to the east coast low, similar to what we were seeing a couple of days ago. All snow, and a longer period of snow, but not the same intensity as there is no apps runner to speak of like we saw at 18z. A nice 4-6". This solution and the 12z Euro solution are pretty drastically different. Something has to give over the course of the next couple days. We are less than six days from onset now, so about 36 hours out from the Euro's sweet spot.

That being said, there is a little clipper-like disturbance that wanders in to the west of us around Christmas eve, and that's worth watching if this scenario were to play out.

00z CMC says cutter, but with the cold air comes a decent batch of snow after a pretty good drenching.

Midnight models

Models have been going through there usual 5-7 days out progression. Consistency is what we're looking for especially with ensembles . EU op has had back to back runs of similar outcomes with a cutter and impactful winter conditions with rain changing to snow, how much TBD. Having said that nothing is off the table , anything from a cutter to an apps runner is there for the taking . Agree with Addisons post above, EU's Oz run tonight and especially 12z tomorrow will be extremely important in how this unfolds , especially what the ensembles have to say

Good morning all! Had a nice snow shower earlier this morning. Going to my Brother's in a little while so I'll go ahead and get the storm thread started for this system. Please continue all Pre-Christmas storm discussion in the new thread. Thanks all! Again, I will be peaking in as you know just because I can't help myself.

EDIT: Link to Storm Thread! https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=206

Good Morning and nice winter like day ahead with cold temps and a few flakes flying from time to time. So what to expect with the system later in the week and again way to early though a middle road would be rain to snow with a flash freeze and a couple of inches of snow. That is easy to throw out this far in advance but what has happened overnight is the models have got into their normal camps.

Les your call of the ridge in the west will be such a huge player how this plays out. The Euro and CMC overnight has a flatter ridge where the gfs has the ridge rather tall on the west coast. Which is correct and no ideal this early in the game. We are talking 5 days before we see anything from this system.

I am not sure models are able to get this correct until they no how strong a push of polar air is worked into this system. I saw somewhere yesterday some met was talking about climatology and was going with that in making a forecast. I am big on the climatology when making a forecast but also a cross-polar air mass is not something we see every year.

Overnight the Euro is not bringing in the 1060 high into the USA but more in the line of 1045 plus further west. This makes a difference as to how strong a push of cold air gets involved in this system early on. No doubt the cold is coming but timing is key.

Tons of homework over the next few days and will we see more changes and the answer is yes but when will the most likely outcome show up on models and most likely by Monday or Tuesday.

Good morning Tim! Received a thin dusting on roof and car tops here this morning. Nice way to start the weekend and our new wintry pattern!

12z gfs is almost looking identical to 18z from yesterday. Lets hope it continues!

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:54 am 12z gfs is almost looking identical to 18z from yesterday. Lets hope it continues!

Please use the storm thread. Thanks!! It is west of 18z. Rain to snow. Don't want it that far west actually for a monster snow.

Good flurry action on the east side right now!

More good snow shower action on and off in Milford today. A nice wintry appeal.

Winter weather advisory for folks from Dayton to Columbus for up to an inch of snow

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:53 pm Winter weather advisory for folks from Dayton to Columbus for up to an inch of snow

Heading out to go drop some salt in a few minutes. I am hearing from different plow guys that it is getting icy out there all over Columbus. Overpasses are a sheet of ice. they even pretreated everything yesterday.

Flurries here in Milford and a dusting on all surfaces too! I'll take it.

Dusting to a quarter inch here. Pavement covered, grass not so much.

Nice flakes continue in Milford... Looks awesome this morning!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:08 am Flurries here in Milford and a dusting on all surfaces too! I'll take it.

that is your appetizer for the main course coming this week perhaps

I was surprised to see snow sticking to our street here in the city this morning. Just a dusting, but the ground temperature must be fairly cold. Wonder how that impacts things later in the week.

Addisonjm brought up the warmup showing up at the end of the month or the start of the new year. EU ensembles showing we lose the EPO for a time and coincidentally or not the MJO is tracking through the maritime continent or warmer phases. Let's hope it's eastward treck continues and quickly to the cold phases. It may be tough because trades are still above normal near the dateline

My original thinking was to have the January Thaw after the 1st week was out. If it happens sooner, fine by me. Get it over with so we can get back to winter. Honestly though, I'll probably look more out in time once we get past the bigger system for this week.

I still to this day do not know what to expect this winter or what type of winter we will have. Im hearing a few different things for the long range. but honestly the fall has been average overall . I am kind of expecting an overall average conditions as we go into winter.

Just a quick update here on what happens after Christmas... Still watching a possible clipper system on Monday of next week. Models differ on how quick this thing weakens as it tries to head our way and also differ on the amount of digging that the trough is able to do. Can it dig far enough south to scoop up some Gulf moisture? Does it peter out completely before it gets here? Those are the current challenges that system has per modeling. There is a chance in the next day or two for a possible thread starting system if a stronger signal emerges. It's tough though because this current system we're tracking in the White Christmas thread, will be the table setter for this next clipper like system.

Good Evening and nice to talk about something besides the upcoming storm. I see where the NWS is trying to warm us rather quickly towards the new year. I believe the warm up is to quick getting in the eastern part of the country and I still have the warming coming in here somewhere in the 9th-11th of January. Big reason will be snow on the ground and if we can get a few clippers or even another system in here before the new year this usually delays milder spells by a week or so in this region. I do believe we get the January Thaw but similar to what the models showed with the current cold spell I believe they are to quick once again and Mother Nature likes to take her time with these pattern changes.