Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 8:02 pm 0.06” in three minutes of rain

Today is your day Mike! Come on man! Let's do this!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 5:48 am Shear is impressive for later this afternoon and evening. Mods showing pockets of at.least 40-50. If any breaks in the showers and storms during the day give way to a bit of sunshine, chances of severe ramp up considerably

We already have 40 knots which is sufficient. There are pockets of 50 knots too like down by LOU right now. If we can get CAPE similar to yesterday like at leas 1500-2000, it is definitely doing to get bumpy later this afternoon and evening. As usual a wait and see game there. Rain is pretty widespread attm this morning.

I am seeing a pretty good downpour again here. A lot of you probably are this morning. Radar continues to look busy this morning so a lot of on and off rains can be expected. Nothing severe this morning. I question how much CAPE we can build up but we'll just have to wait and see. Any sunshine at all, no matter how little, will help in that regard. Currently, visible is not looking too promising. It's early and things can change rapidly this time of year so naturally, we're watching it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 6:27 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 8:02 pm 0.06” in three minutes of rain

Today is your day Mike! Come on man! Let's do this!

Game on Les!

Low so far a muggy 69. Did actually pick up another downpour yesterday evening for a total thus far of 0.10". I don't think even my dome will hold today - looks good for rain chances.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/26/stormt ... pdate-526/

So far looks like the big winners are up in western Miami and central Shelby counties of Ohio with a band of 2.0-2.5" per radar.

SPC update pulled the Slight Risk back a smidge to the West to now cover our SE IN counties. Visible still looks cloudy but 100-200 J/KG of CAPE is over our western counties with 500 a little west of us back into Indiana. We shall see as usual here. NKY currently getting a small break from the rain at this time.

Seeing a few brief peaks of sunshine

MD was issued earlier for a 40% chance of a watch issuance over Central AL and Middle TN. Our storms would be coming from down there later so worth keeping an eye on radar to the south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0924.html

Most folks near and esp S of the River have 500 J/kg of CAPE to work with. A little sun would help out for severe wx lovers. Looking at the latest visible satellite shows a few breaks over Central and Southern KY. Not a lot of sun but a little should peak thru every now and again for a couple of hours. Can enough CAPE build to go along with the nice wind shear we've got as well as backing winds as the low approaches this afternoon? We'll have to wait and see, it is a highly conditional set up IMO.

SPC expanded the slight risk area to cover many many more people. Even a 5% TOR risk for some of us in KY. I am also seeing a few peeks of sun.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

CAPE of 1000 J/KG now developing over NKY.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
103 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Southern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Central Carroll County in northern Kentucky...
Central Boone County in northern Kentucky...
West central Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 145 PM EDT.

* At 103 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Vevay, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Florence, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora, Rising Sun, Oakbrook,
Burlington, Union, Vevay, Dillsboro, Shawnee, Wilmington, French,
Hartford, Fairview, Ghent, Center Square, Aberdeen, Idlewild and
Waterloo.

This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 179 and 181.

That cell over SE IN looks nasty.,.. looks like a good wind maker to me. Mike or anyone else... any rotation or hail with this thing?

EDIT: There's another nasty one to the SW of Owenton too. Both cells need to be watched closely!

The cell over SE IN... I'm keeping an eye on the "tail" if you will. Looks a bit concerning to me.

Wind picking up a bit now... some light rain now falling. Even heard a rumble of thunder in the distance.

Sun popping back out now. The S end of that cell, I don't like the looks of it and it is that part of it which is most likely going to be moving over my area soon.

Seeing some peeks of sun here as well

The cell is breaking apart a bit now as it's weakening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
204 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Preble County in west central Ohio...
Butler County in southwestern Ohio...
Northwestern Warren County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Montgomery County in west central Ohio...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 204 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ross, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Miamisburg, Springboro, Monroe,
Trenton, Franklin, Carlisle, South Middletown, Gratis, Seven Mile,
Williamsdale, Hunter, Darrtown, Germantown, New Miami,
Farmersville, Millville and Somerville.

This warning is literally 3 blocks south of me LOL

Hvy rain now but nothing severe of course. Mike, good luck to you!!!

I'm up to about 0.45" event total so far. I am counting rainfall from yesterday - Friday when I mean event total.

Folks... once we get past the pain and punishment tomorrow of the upper low (rain and 60s) then we should start Saturday off cloudy with slowly increasing sunshine as the day wears on. Highs low to mid 70s depending on how much sun you get. Sunny everybody Sun - Tues of next week. Will roll with mid to upper 80s thru the period. Going to keep 90 out of the picture for now.

Wed June 1st, the first day of our contest has a chance however, I am already seeing signs of the ridge breaking down with pop up storms late in the day possible and a cold frontal passage midday Thurs. If that system speeds up anymore 90 is unreachable. We may get a nice shot of cool air too. The first weekend in June may keep us in the 70s? Yes Please!