Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:51 pm 12Z Euro only has spotty action for CVG Land until Thurs and Fri of next week when likely POPS are needed. The model actually clears some of the area with the front for a dry Holiday Weekend. On Sat 7/3 with the Euro's solution our NE Forecast area would have the best shot for showers.

That would should bode well, if the case, for holiday celebrations / fireworks and sports including boat racing on the Ohio River near Madison, IN on July 3rd and 4th.

We went to that event a few years ago, pretty cool to watch . Great scenery and love the town of Madison. Highly recommend

So the HRRR is either smoking something, or on to something. Has a line of storms moving across I-70 land (maybe even northern Cincy burbs) later this afternoon even getting into Columbus (I hope this is true as they are quite dry there).

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:10 am So the HRRR is either smoking something, or on to something. Has a line of storms moving across I-70 land (maybe even northern Cincy burbs) later this afternoon even getting into Columbus (I hope this is true as they are quite dry there).

Yea i think its smoking something. We'll see . GFS at the same party, also may be taking a toke with 1-3+ along the I70 corridor from Dayton to INdy over the next 24 hrs. I gotta side with the EU for this short term period.

Good morning all! Happy Friday!

The Euro has been leading the way on this pattern 100%. The GFS has been leaning that way despite the "set back" on the overnight runs. We'll see if the 12Z run is hung over from partying all night or not later today. The NAM also stayed in for the night with the Euro showing the drier solution.

I think Tim's 90 degree call is money unless cloud blow off from storms to the west keep temps from hitting 90. That's the only issue I see. Otherwise 2 perhaps even 3 90 degree days are possible this weekend and maybe on Monday of next week. Storm chances after that, should be high enough to keep us in the 80s. Still watching the big holiday weekend folks and will have more later as time goes by on that.

The current look for the Big 4th of July Weekend features an upper low and cooler conditions. If the Euro is correct, the low almost truly gets cut off which won't be good for pyro's. If it can remain a bit more progressive, then we're ok. With the blocking pattern in place, unfortunately, slower is the way to go here. So much uncertainty folks and the model changes are big, just like what we see in the winter time. We normally do not see blocking like this in the summertime to be honest so the models aren't really used to handling this type of look in the summer months. Still don't know if the tropics will flare up or not. Hopefully not. We've got enough going on as it is.

Just a few weakening showers out there this morning in the short term. Heavier rains over Western IN, ILL, and N of STL. I am expecting much of that to weaken as it tries to push this way. As the storms get too far out ahead of the better wind field, energy and instability, they will fade / weaken in time as they push more to the east later today. I truly expect to see that repeat over and over until the front finally gets closer to us, towards the second half of next week. We'll see how this idea plays out for today by monitoring the radar trends.

Good Morning and the beautiful dew points on the rise. Trying to figure out when the best rain chances are is the main headache. I still believe later tonight and early Saturday gives us a decent chance which happens quite often with a decent front and you see a push to the east. Then the high to our east should get stronger and this will help in pushing the main precip back to the north and west. The Sunday-Tuesday time period will be mostly dry but always can get a thundershower with how deep the moisture is but most stay dry. Then if the front starts to head southeast the Wed-Fri period may give us a better chance for showers and thundershowers. Rather interesting weather for late June and again a bust could happen if you get one of the complexes to the north and west get really strong with winds and this sometimes will push very fast to the east before dying off. Those are almost impossible to predict before they get going.

All we can do is put our thoughts out there and let the chips fall. Models are going to handle this set up for the next week to ten days very poorly as we all know. I like my thoughts as well as Tim's because you need to think outside the box a little bit on this and that's what we're doing. It still doesn't mean my thoughts or Tim's will be right, but it's the best we can do with this highly unusual set up.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:10 am So the HRRR is either smoking something, or on to something. Has a line of storms moving across I-70 land (maybe even northern Cincy burbs) later this afternoon even getting into Columbus (I hope this is true as they are quite dry there).

That would be nice. But, just in case can I get a hit of that before I go out and start working.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:42 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:10 am So the HRRR is either smoking something, or on to something. Has a line of storms moving across I-70 land (maybe even northern Cincy burbs) later this afternoon even getting into Columbus (I hope this is true as they are quite dry there).

That would be nice. But, just in case can I get a hit of that before I go out and start working.

Latest Day 1 SPC outlook

Not so sure about the marginal risk being that far to the east. We'd better lose some of this cloud cover so at least some weak CAPE can develop. The better wind energy or shear is far away from us closer to the frontal boundary. We'll see... SPC are the experts here but I'm not sold.

12Z ILN sounding shows a decent pocket of dry air between 700-850 MB so that should be the reason why the action weakens as it moves our way.

12z HRRR not excited about rain chances today. We’ll see.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:22 am 12z HRRR not excited about rain chances today. We’ll see.

I feel the same way. I'm not too excited about it either. Only chance would be if the storms were racing so fast that forward momentum would continue their life cycle longer. That isn't the case here as everything is moving slowly in a blocking pattern.

Getting a few sprinkles here in the Dayton area

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:12 am Not so sure about the marginal risk being that far to the east. We'd better lose some of this cloud cover so at least some weak CAPE can develop. The better wind energy or shear is far away from us closer to the frontal boundary. We'll see... SPC are the experts here but I'm not sold.

Agree, just don't see much at all outside of sprinkles for our forum through the day. We'll have to see how the nocturnal complex forms tonight, to see if the I70 crew has a shot at that one

13z Hi-Res back to the storm idea for Dayton/I-70 around 5pm.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:23 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:12 am Not so sure about the marginal risk being that far to the east. We'd better lose some of this cloud cover so at least some weak CAPE can develop. The better wind energy or shear is far away from us closer to the frontal boundary. We'll see... SPC are the experts here but I'm not sold.

Agree, just don't see much at all outside of sprinkles for our forum through the day. We'll have to see how the nocturnal complex forms tonight, to see if the I70 crew has a shot at that one

We're on the same page with our thoughts. Is mother Nature going to be is the question? 12Z NAM is basically dry for most.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:29 am 13z Hi-Res back to the storm idea for Dayton/I-70 around 5pm.

LOL... that model keeps flip-flopping so bad.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/25/goode- ... -blog-625/

I like the idea of only isolated to scattered coverage thru about Wed of next week. Thurs and Fri continue to look like the most widespread chances for our area as the front is finally here! 12Z GFS run is showing this idea nicely today as has past Euro runs too.

For the Holiday Weekend, it will depend on how quickly that front clears. Do we get an upper low? Does it cut off? Do the tropics get involved? All questions that will determine the speed of that front. The GFS right now is showing the low cutting off over Northern Michigan and it really slows the front down on Saturday. This is a valid solution and a concern for my party and other people who maybe having their parties then too. Will continue to keep an eye on it and we've got a lot of time to go to see what happens. That's the good news lol

12z GFS coming out of its high and substantially lowering amounts for the I70 crew over the next 24hrs

SPC Day 1 has added a SLGT risk to NW Ohio and actually pushed the marginal risk a bit EAST into Columbus. Interesting....

Currently seeing a couple downpours on the east side of Columbus, as well as down in Highland and Brown Counties.