Absolute Vorticity

I took a quick look at the Ensembles and MJO since it's been a while since I have looked at it. And well... I'm sorry that I looked! For snow lovers it is terrible. I would not bank on any major snow events thru at least Feb 7 maybe the 10th. After that, we will see as usual but the first week to 10 days IMO at this time, do not look so good.

Glad you are posting again Les and again anything we can do please ask because the folks on here are truly kind folks and part of a weather family.

Back to the weather and though not expecting a big snow this weekend I am somewhat more excited that we could have a period of snow late Saturday and early Sunday. An upper system which you need and looks like its trying to tilt negative so getting stronger. This could be a little surprise for someone in the Ohio Valley. Lets see this play out over the next few days but again is there to much warm air to overtake and maybe not since we will have a front come through here early Friday bringing temps back down some plus if it can happen at night the chances go up.

Also looking forward I love what I am seeing and just a matter of time before models get on board. Usually I promote these signs a tad to early but they finally happen and imo the blocking we saw the past couple of weeks is coming back. Exactly where it sets up is too early but I know how folks love to give up on winter when we get a warm spell but without the warm spell we would be unable to get the cold build up in the northern regions.

Thanks very much Tim!

With regards to any snow this weekend with the upper low, we are back to the idea of a storm having to "make its own cold air" and I'd like to see a stronger upper low on the models to pull down more cold air from upstairs. The surface low track isn't too bad actually. I think it looks favorable but the low itself is not strong enough as of yet IMO to get a good period of snow. Should that change, then I would be right there with you and I'd have the exact same thoughts.

What I am seeing, we are running out of time for winter to rebound and return.

Even into early and mid March can bring some winter surprises so all is not lost.

Currently 48 here in G'ville and progged for around 45 on Thurs morning.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:41 pm Glad you are posting again Les and again anything we can do please ask because the folks on here are truly kind folks and part of a weather family.

Back to the weather and though not expecting a big snow this weekend I am somewhat more excited that we could have a period of snow late Saturday and early Sunday. An upper system which you need and looks like its trying to tilt negative so getting stronger. This could be a little surprise for someone in the Ohio Valley. Lets see this play out over the next few days but again is there to much warm air to overtake and maybe not since we will have a front come through here early Friday bringing temps back down some plus if it can happen at night the chances go up.

Also looking forward I love what I am seeing and just a matter of time before models get on board. Usually I promote these signs a tad to early but they finally happen and imo the blocking we saw the past couple of weeks is coming back. Exactly where it sets up is too early but I know how folks love to give up on winter when we get a warm spell but without the warm spell we would be unable to get the cold build up in the northern regions.

Not so much giving up on winter, but understanding that we have a month and some change of Met winter left and a good chunk of that will be torched…

The further we go into Feb, the more we fight with climo. It’s just the reality of things. Of course we will probably get cold again at some point on Feb, but I highly doubt it’ll be anything sustained and it probably won’t be anything extreme. But like I said we are starting to fight with climo. The sun gets stronger and stronger with each passing day.

Fog advisory’s as far the eye can see this morning. Another yucky day, with light rain moving back in the his afternoon. No changes for the weekend rains possibly mixing or changing to flakes on Sunday. Next week we see a lot of temps in the 40s for highs

Bgoney,no doubt climo plays a factor especially when you get into later February. What we have seen over the past 20 years or so is February being the month that brings the best winter weather around here. Again anytime around here its never easy to have the perfect set up for snow lovers. Yes I believe the blocking over the top happens again but how is that arranged and though I believe the coldest of air is further east this time we should be near the coldest of air which to me is a great set up for overriding events. The STJ really has not been exactly what you see in an El Nino. Sure its been active all winter but instead of coming into southern California it has been coming through central Mexico and then into the gulf states. Will we head back to the same pattern we saw last month or can we get the flow from Hawaii-So Cal-The Carolina's. Of course where will the polar jet be located at the same time. I love the buildup of cold in the northern regions once again as we had to have the January Thaw to have a chance of a decent period of cold in February. So give an arctic air mass in a few weeks combined with the GOM being open and roll the dice.

Here is the latest rainfall totals for the 6 locations close to CVG. This is the total since Monday.

Ind- 1.04 Day- 0.91 Cmh- 1.04 Lex- 1.44 Lou- 1.55 Cvg- 1.46.

Last round later today into early Friday so the rainfall forecasts from earlier this week seems to have been correct. Sure there are places with slightly under 1 inch and some places closer to 2 inches but this gives us an ideal that the heaviest rains so far have been further south and exactly what you would expect with a broad area of rainfall.

Did not include Saturday and Sunday with projected rainfall totals but that could add another .25 -.50. So yes a decent amount of rain but hopefully not to much that flooding is a huge concern though being winter and the ground thawing of course some flooding will occur but so far the rivers doing well but expect some rise but upstream not a big snow pack along the Ohio River and that helps as well.

It is sure foggy out there this morning. I can barely see the house at the end of my street. Have to leave in a bit to run some errands.

Insanity. I don’t think I’ve ever seen zero visibilities this widespread here before…

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:18 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:04 pm I'm just wondering if we can get it to be any uglier outside. What a stretch of depressing weather we are going to be in.

Hi JP,

It looks like our next chance of seeing any sunshine will be Wed 1/31.

there is always sunshine. But, you might have to take a drive to fiind it. Maybe at a beach?

The GFS is certainly the most bullish on rain to snow this weekend. Not saying it's right because the other models haven't jumped on board. The atmosphere is teetering between plain ole rain and a couple inches of wet snow. Tim touched on this threat. It may not materialize, but the atmosphere is oh so close.

.06 visibility cvg at mid day. Quite impressive

I doubt it will improve any. Drizzle and light rain isn’t going to help any. It was definitely a bright morning making emergency responses in the fog.

If you thought people’s brights were bad, we definitely put that to shame

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 11:44 am The GFS is certainly the most bullish on rain to snow this weekend. Not saying it's right because the other models haven't jumped on board. The atmosphere is teetering between plain ole rain and a couple inches of wet snow. Tim touched on this threat. It may not materialize, but the atmosphere is oh so close.

Yeah Doug, that's starting to look interesting for this weekend!

Also, I've noticed recently that after about the 2nd looks like it gets very busy with STJ out of the Pacific with ULL/trough in the western states that could send rounds of waves our way?

The fog has cleared and very mild day and took at nice stroll without a jacket

Considerable improvement here in Indian Hill and also at cvg in the past hour. Just in time for the late afternoon/early evening light rain

Will watch later today and overnight as we have two distinct areas of rainfall today. Both are moving northeast but there is a gap in there where the rainfall is lighter. Some models have pointed in that direction and by looking at radar that could happen. If so then some area's may only get another .025 at best. Southeast Kentucky looks like a decent sport for heavier rain later today and tonight.

Tim, the NAM has caught onto your idea. A little north and west for our liking, but hopefully it's seeing air that is just cold enough.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:14 pm Tim, the NAM has caught onto your idea. A little north and west for our liking, but hopefully it's seeing air that is just cold enough.

Hey Doug, we need the system to sort of gain strength just south of us and hopefully that will be enough to have a period of heavier precip and we can get the snow in the lower layers. Of course the ground will be wet and the ground temps are much milder than just a few days ago but if we can get this overnight or before noon we can get a slushy inch or so. Then as we know next week we are more in the northwest pattern and we can get a few minor systems with temps probably low 40's during the day and upper 20's at night so we need the correct timing but these are minor.

Still love the pattern once we get into February and does this happen early or mid month and starting to see signs that the AO and NAO will be heading towards neutral and that is a start and will the MJO continue to travel through phase 6 and 7 and hopefully back into the colder phases 8-2 though once you get in February usually better to be in phase 1 or 2 but again this is an El Nino year and sometimes the MJO does not match up with the normal

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:45 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:14 pm Tim, the NAM has caught onto your idea. A little north and west for our liking, but hopefully it's seeing air that is just cold enough.

Hey Doug, we need the system to sort of gain strength just south of us and hopefully that will be enough to have a period of heavier precip and we can get the snow in the lower layers. Of course the ground will be wet and the ground temps are much milder than just a few days ago but if we can get this overnight or before noon we can get a slushy inch or so. Then as we know next week we are more in the northwest pattern and we can get a few minor systems with temps probably low 40's during the day and upper 20's at night so we need the correct timing but these are minor.

Still love the pattern once we get into February and does this happen early or mid month and starting to see signs that the AO and NAO will be heading towards neutral and that is a start and will the MJO continue to travel through phase 6 and 7 and hopefully back into the colder phases 8-2 though once you get in February usually better to be in phase 1 or 2 but again this is an El Nino year and sometimes the MJO does not match up with the normal

The 18Z GFS is trying also but we need a stronger system IMO to pull down more cold air from upstairs.

The speed of the current system seems to have sped up so that helps in amounts not getting out of hand. Friday looks dry