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Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:50 am
by tron777
12Z NAM coming in just under a 1/2" of rain for CVG then a few flurries Thurs night and that's a wrap with this next system.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:47 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:50 am
12Z NAM coming in just under a 1/2" of rain for CVG then a few flurries Thurs night and that's a wrap with this next system.
Going with .5-1.0 and really that is because where does the warm front set up and if its a little further north the higher amounts are possible. The model will go back and forth on totals depending where they see the warm front and also the thunderstorms that could rob some of the moisture. So a nice rain for us and we will keep the above normal pattern in terms of rainfall and my guess over the past 20 years I would guess 15 have been above normal in terms of rainfall. I can see flurries later Thursday and early Friday plus a nice windy day on Thursday as well.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:51 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:47 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:50 am
12Z NAM coming in just under a 1/2" of rain for CVG then a few flurries Thurs night and that's a wrap with this next system.
Going with .5-1.0 and really that is because where does the warm front set up and if its a little further north the higher amounts are possible. The model will go back and forth on totals depending where they see the warm front and also the thunderstorms that could rob some of the moisture. So a nice rain for us and we will keep the above normal pattern in terms of rainfall and my guess over the past 20 years I would guess 15 have been above normal in terms of rainfall. I can see flurries later Thursday and early Friday plus a nice windy day on Thursday as well.
The funny thing about Thursday Tim is that we'll be more windy after the rain is over especially if we see any sunshine. The higher winds will mix down to the surface if that happens so gusts in that 30-40 mph range would be possible. 12Z GFS is still on the heavier side in that 0.50 to 1" range which I also like for this system.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:07 am
by tpweather
Les I agree the more sun the more likely the winds do end up at the surface.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:27 am
by Bgoney
58 here
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:42 am
by airwolf76
Yea people always trying to predict the future i dont pay much attention to those long range digital snowmaps
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:53 am
by tron777
56 at CVG as of 11am... gusty W winds around 22 mph. 12Z GFS is in and for the 22-23rd and 25-26th systems, it's still cutting both so rain ending as some flakes as the best we can do on this model run.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:56 am
by tpweather
58 here though my gusts are much lower than Les. I have always noticed over the years that Boone County for the most part is much windier than where I live in Kenton County. I believe somewhat flatter in Boone County so that is one reason.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:58 am
by tron777
12Z CMC for the first time has went in the Euro's direction showing a much further SE track with both systems and wintry weather is also possible with both. Not bad! #TeamCanada
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:58 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:56 am
58 here though my gusts are much lower than Les. I have always noticed over the years that Boone County for the most part is much windier than where I live in Kenton County. I believe somewhat flatter in Boone County so that is one reason.
Totally agree Tim and a bit higher in elevation as well. CVG sits up on a plateau.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:05 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:58 am
12Z CMC for the first time has went in the Euro's direction showing a much further SE track with both systems and wintry weather is also possible with both. Not bad! #TeamCanada
Les you could see it was trying to head that way but kept coming back to the gfs solution. Lets see what the Euro is up to in about an hour or so.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:33 pm
by airwolf76
go team Canada and Euro that's a good combo to be a part of
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:01 pm
by tron777
12Z GEFS cuts the Sunday / Monday system too but the members are a good 50/50 split with the 25-26th one in terms of cutting versus mainly snow.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:43 pm
by tpweather
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:22 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:11 pm
Snapshot of the 12Z EPS centered on 1/27.
EPS.png
Les can you make that happen lol.
Les whatever you are doing to change the pattern keep doing it even if you must work overtime. Cmc and Euro looking nice and of course the Gfs nice further out like it always seems to look lol.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:45 pm
by Bgoney
Not bad from EU, surface temps right at freezing but uppers look pretty good
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:46 pm
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:43 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:22 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:11 pm
Snapshot of the 12Z EPS centered on 1/27.
EPS.png
Les can you make that happen lol.
Les whatever you are doing to change the pattern keep doing it even if you must work overtime. Cmc and Euro looking nice and of course the Gfs nice further out like it always seems to look lol.
b8add110.gif
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:52 pm
by tron777
LOL! Great posts... I love it!
Euro seemed faster with the Sunday system too. Temps are marginal like 33-34 but thermals look great! Plenty of QPF too with the model giving CVG 0.51"! I'll take a wet snow on Sunday watching football.
Then for the 25-26th system, it's a major swing and a miss to the SE but we can worry about it later. Euro has been rock solid for the most part with this Sunday system. Love this trend!
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:59 pm
by tron777
60 now at CVG. Nice spring day!
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:01 pm
by tron777
Euros got a nice arctic front diving into the country at Day 10. I sure hope the Euro is not "on something" and it's leading the way for a change. That would be quite refreshing to see. EPS is going to be very interesting (we hope) within the next hour or so.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:06 pm
by tron777
For Sunday / Monday... I will say that the GEFS is well south of the Operational GFS. OP GFS cuts it well NW of us thru ILL, IN, and into Ohio, while the GEFS has the low passing thru KY very close to us. As Tim said, CMC and Euro are taking the southern route and the UKMET is an Apps runner that transfers to the Coast so basically the southern route as well. Wow... we've got the foreign model trifecta right now. We have not seen that to my knowledge so far this winter. May have to both eyes open for this one.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:08 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:01 pm
Euros got a nice arctic front diving into the country at Day 10. I sure hope the Euro is not "on something" and it's leading the way for a change. That would be quite refreshing to see. EPS is going to be very interesting (we hope) within the next hour or so.
Les the gfs has been showing this in the longer range but that is normal for that model and until I see the euro get on board I put a little caution into the forecast. I tend to believe its true as temps in western and central Canada look to be getting quite cold later this week and weekend and that is usually a good sign as long as we get the correct setup to bring the cold air southward.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:15 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS also concurs... it brings the low up the Apps then does the transfer. I like it, I like it!
sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:17 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:08 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:01 pm
Euros got a nice arctic front diving into the country at Day 10. I sure hope the Euro is not "on something" and it's leading the way for a change. That would be quite refreshing to see. EPS is going to be very interesting (we hope) within the next hour or so.
Les the gfs has been showing this in the longer range but that is normal for that model and until I see the euro get on board I put a little caution into the forecast. I tend to believe its true as temps in western and central Canada look to be getting quite cold later this week and weekend and that is usually a good sign as long as we get the correct setup to bring the cold air southward.
The foreign models are colder and I believe it is because they have the PV further south then the OP GFS and they are also closer to the West coast with the PNA ridging. Both of these things are needed for us to get the proper storm track going, especially for this Sunday.
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:22 pm
by tron777
I mean even the GEFS members are way snowier then the OP GFS. Check out the individual members out to 16 days... you will notice some nice hits in there and very few duds. One of the better GEFS runs of the winter season IMO. OP GFS is the outlier right now starting this Sunday and beyond. We are really seeing some excellent model agreement this afternoon! It could change in the next 12 hours obviously but for now, I'm pretty pleased!
GEFSSnow.png
Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:30 pm
by tron777
For the 25-26th... EPS Mean is a tad too far West for my taste but we can worry about that one later as I said before about the OP Euro having it be more suppressed. We've got some interesting times coming if these trends can hold guys! Hang in there!