Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:00 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:47 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:45 am Les no matter what happens late next week you have mentioned the wind for several days and that is going to be an issue. The CMC would bring less snow but a worse outcome with a huge flash freeze.
Absolutely Tim! No matter how much snow falls, you can expect wind gusts in that 40 to 50 mph range. Visibility will be an issue for traveling and depending on how much we get, blowing and drifting snow is also going to be a problem. Whether or not the "B" word comes out depends on how intense this storm gets and if we can get a nice phase and that upper low to close off.

My cousin and her family from VA Beach plan to arrive at her folks here in Greenville sometime on Fri 12/23! Welcome back to Ohio, Cherie and Merry Christmas!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:07 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:43 pm Look at 500 MB Tim... The upper low closes off and slowly moves thru the OV on Friday with raging winds, very cold temps in the single digits and teens with snow falling as well! Wow!

My cousin Cherie's folks live in rural Greenville where it seems like power lines out that way at times drop like a hat in windy conditions esp when snow or ice covered.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:20 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:34 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:43 pm Look at 500 MB Tim... The upper low closes off and slowly moves thru the OV on Friday with raging winds, very cold temps in the single digits and teens with snow falling as well! Wow!
There's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol

I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!

I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
What in the heck is the name of that movie, Joe? Ugh... I should know this! My Brother and his kids are supposed to be coming here sometime on the 23rd to spend Christmas Eve with us. His wife is a nurse and has to work on Christmas Eve this year. We'll have to wait and see how much travel impact we get from this. Just too early to know. I wouldn't change any plans yet of course, but I would be thinking of a Plan B just in case this thing does get strong. Even something like the 12z GFS would cause a lot of problems.
Les, there's a bunch of them movies and I can even recall a Waltons episode. Lol

Now, may be the time to start the pre-Christmas winter storm thread? Lol

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:39 pm**

Where is everyone? Just had the best model run we have ever had and it is dead in here haha!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm**

18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:01 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm 18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!

Been patiently waiting for you to log back on haha!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:18 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm 18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!

Been patiently waiting for you to log back on haha!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:22 pm**

Ok.... after I got over the shock LOL If you look at the finer details you can see why the model showed this solution. Again, this is not a forecast. I am only talking about one model run and that is the 18Z GFS. We need to talk about WHY the model is showing what it's showing. We have no idea this far out if it's right or wrong. Ok, so why is this showing a monster snow storm of crippling proportions for us?

Compare the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z GFS which is what I am going to be doing in this post. To begin with on the 18Z GFS at 102 hours valid Tues evening at 7pm, the low is over Seattle Washington at 1010 MB. 12Z run was weaker at 1013 MB and further north over British Columbia. What this is telling us already is that the PNA ridge is taller (more amplified) vs 12Z and it's also in that sweet spot along the West Coast of North America. The trough is already going to dig more right there on the 18Z run vs 12Z. Once again... it all starts with the Pacific pattern.

By Thurs morning at 7am, 18Z run has a 1062 MB High over Western Montana (12Z was 1063 MB but over West central Montana, which means the high is a tad slower dropping in.) The low is now at 1009 MB west of DFW in Texas S of the Red River. 12Z run was similar in position but the low strength was 1013 MB. HUGE DIFFERENCE! These little changes we are seeing on each run may not seem like much to the human eye, but since our atmosphere is fluid, it is vulnerable to just the smallest changes. That's how meteorology works. The smallest change makes a big difference as to what we see down here at the surface where we live.

By Thurs evening at 7pm, the storm is getting its act together! 1008 MB Low is over Northern MS! 12Z run didn't even have a surface low forming yet. This is damn near like an Apps Runner! No East Coast Nor 'Easter on this run if it were to develop as such. Wow! The low does pop a secondary low but it bombs out up the East side of the Apps and NOT along the East Coast. Major, major differences folks! We get that full phase too and not a partial like the 12Z run. The upper low closes off 6 hours sooner then the 12Z run. I told you this afternoon if it closed off faster then look out! Well there you go!

Timing wise on the 18Z GFS, it is obviously slower since it's a stronger system. Snow begins late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Could begin as a brief rain or mix Southern counties but it won't kill your snow totals much at all lol This is arctic air coming in so you will changeover very quickly! Snow starts to get heavy after midnight Thurs night. We get hammered all day Friday with the action winding down by late Fri evening or so. After midnight for Eastern counties. That is a long duration event for this area! WOW!

Now of course the snow ratios are going to be really good with this system should the GFS be on to something and not "on something"

I shouldn't even be doing this, but I can't help it! Check out the text data for CVG. EGADS!

Code: Select all

FRI 00Z 23-DEC  -3.3    -2.6    1018      93      97    0.09     549     535    
FRI 06Z 23-DEC  -3.3    -1.9    1009      96      97    0.34     543     536    
FRI 12Z 23-DEC  -2.9    -2.8    1000      96      97    0.60     535     535    
FRI 18Z 23-DEC  -2.7    -7.0     995      96      97    0.36     527     531    
SAT 00Z 24-DEC  -5.5   -11.8    1000      92      98    0.18     528     527    
SAT 06Z 24-DEC  -8.1   -10.3    1008      88      80    0.03     530     525

Whew!

Take a deep breath Les.

A long way to go but at the same time, this isn't fantasy range either.

EDIT: The above text data shows 1.6" liquid. All snow with the temps in the mid and upper 20s for a good chunk of the event! Excuse my language but holy shit!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:23 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:18 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm 18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!
Been patiently waiting for you to log back on haha!

You're more excited then I am! You posted twice.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:28 pm**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:20 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:53 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:34 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:43 pm Look at 500 MB Tim... The upper low closes off and slowly moves thru the OV on Friday with raging winds, very cold temps in the single digits and teens with snow falling as well! Wow!
There's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol

I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!

I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
What in the heck is the name of that movie, Joe? Ugh... I should know this! My Brother and his kids are supposed to be coming here sometime on the 23rd to spend Christmas Eve with us. His wife is a nurse and has to work on Christmas Eve this year. We'll have to wait and see how much travel impact we get from this. Just too early to know. I wouldn't change any plans yet of course, but I would be thinking of a Plan B just in case this thing does get strong. Even something like the 12z GFS would cause a lot of problems.
Les, there's a bunch of them movies and I can even recall a Waltons episode. Lol

Now, may be the time to start the pre-Christmas winter storm thread? Lol

Hey Joe, that episode titled "The Best Christmas" when telephone switchboard operator Fanny Tatum and her niece ended up in Drucilla's Pond in Fanny's half submerged car and John Boy, Harley, and Dr. Curt rescue them. Then Curt and Mary Ellen thaw out Fanny and her niece at C and M's house. Jason finishes up Christmas carols practice on the church organ right in the St. Nick

of time before a tree crashes through the church roof. Then later Jim Bob and his gf Patsy arrive at the Walton house and of course the power was knocked out in the storm and upon Jim Bob's entering his front door, asks "Where is everybody?"

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 25 on Sat morning.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:32 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:23 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:18 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm 18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!
Been patiently waiting for you to log back on haha!
You're more excited then I am! You posted twice.

Well hell I will even meet in the middle from this run and the one I posted this morning!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:37 pm**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:28 pm Hey Joe, that episode titled "The Best Christmas" when telephone switchboard operator Fanny Tatum and her niece ended up in Drucilla's Pond in Fanny's half submerged car and John Boy, Harley, and Dr. Curt rescue them. Then Curt and Mary Ellen thaw out Fanny and her niece at C and M's house. Jason finishes up Christmas carols practice on the church organ right in the St. Nick
of time before a tree crashes through the church roof. Then later Jim Bob and his gf Patsy arrive at the Walton house and of course the power was knocked out in the storm and upon Jim Bob's entering his front door, asks "Where is everybody?"

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 25 on Sat morning.

Thank you Joe and Eric! It was the Walton's episode that I couldn't think of earlier when this discussion came up.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:38 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:22 pm Ok.... after I got over the shock LOL If you look at the finer details you can see why the model showed this solution. Again, this is not a forecast. I am only talking about one model run and that is the 18Z GFS. We need to talk about WHY the model is showing what it's showing. We have no idea this far out if it's right or wrong. Ok, so why is this showing a monster snow storm of crippling proportions for us?

Compare the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z GFS which is what I am going to be doing in this post. To begin with on the 18Z GFS at 102 hours valid Tues evening at 7pm, the low is over Seattle Washington at 1010 MB. 12Z run was weaker at 1013 MB and further north over British Columbia. What this is telling us already is that the PNA ridge is taller (more amplified) vs 12Z and it's also in that sweet spot along the West Coast of North America. The trough is already going to dig more right there on the 18Z run vs 12Z. Once again... it all starts with the Pacific pattern.

By Thurs morning at 7am, 18Z run has a 1062 MB High over Western Montana (12Z was 1063 MB but over West central Montana, which means the high is a tad slower dropping in.) The low is now at 1009 MB west of DFW in Texas S of the Red River. 12Z run was similar in position but the low strength was 1013 MB. HUGE DIFFERENCE! These little changes we are seeing on each run may not seem like much to the human eye, but since our atmosphere is fluid, it is vulnerable to just the smallest changes. That's how meteorology works. The smallest change makes a big difference as to what we see down here at the surface where we live.

By Thurs evening at 7pm, the storm is getting its act together! 1008 MB Low is over Northern MS! 12Z run didn't even have a surface low forming yet. This is damn near like an Apps Runner! No East Coast Nor 'Easter on this run if it were to develop as such. Wow! The low does pop a secondary low but it bombs out up the East side of the Apps and NOT along the East Coast. Major, major differences folks! We get that full phase too and not a partial like the 12Z run. The upper low closes off 6 hours sooner then the 12Z run. I told you this afternoon if it closed off faster then look out! Well there you go!

Timing wise on the 18Z GFS, it is obviously slower since it's a stronger system. Snow begins late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Could begin as a brief rain or mix Southern counties but it won't kill your snow totals much at all lol This is arctic air coming in so you will changeover very quickly! Snow starts to get heavy after midnight Thurs night. We get hammered all day Friday with the action winding down by late Fri evening or so. After midnight for Eastern counties. That is a long duration event for this area! WOW!

Now of course the snow ratios are going to be really good with this system should the GFS be on to something and not "on something" I shouldn't even be doing this, but I can't help it! Check out the text data for CVG. EGADS!
Code: Select all
FRI 00Z 23-DEC  -3.3    -2.6    1018      93      97    0.09     549     535    
FRI 06Z 23-DEC  -3.3    -1.9    1009      96      97    0.34     543     536    
FRI 12Z 23-DEC  -2.9    -2.8    1000      96      97    0.60     535     535    
FRI 18Z 23-DEC  -2.7    -7.0     995      96      97    0.36     527     531    
SAT 00Z 24-DEC  -5.5   -11.8    1000      92      98    0.18     528     527    
SAT 06Z 24-DEC  -8.1   -10.3    1008      88      80    0.03     530     525   
Whew! Take a deep breath Les. A long way to go but at the same time, this isn't fantasy range either.

EDIT: The above text data shows 1.6" liquid. All snow with the temps in the mid and upper 20s for a good chunk of the event! Excuse my language but holy shit!

Hey Les, my cousin Cherie and her family may have to Facetime, Skype or Zoom with her folks this year lol!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:39 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:32 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:23 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:18 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:00 pm 18Z GFS = OH MY GOSH!!!!! More in a moment. I honestly cannot type or even speak!
Been patiently waiting for you to log back on haha!
You're more excited then I am! You posted twice.
Well hell I will even meet in the middle from this run and the one I posted this morning!

Ok. Deal!

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:41 pm**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:38 pm Hey Les, my cousin Cherie and her family may have to Facetime, Skype or Zoom with her folks this year lol!

I'm telling ya!

In all seriousness with all joking aside. I would not change or cancel any plans yet. I would however, have a back up plan just in case. That is a good idea.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:48 pm**

12Z GEFS Mean snowfall was around 3". 4" is the mean now on the 18Z GEFS Mean. That's pretty darn nice on a mean (avg of 20 members) 6 days out.

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:02 pm**

What are the winds looking like on the 18gfs run? Blizzard material?

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:09 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:02 pm What are the winds looking like on the 18gfs run? Blizzard material?

You know this, but in case anyone on our forum does not, this is the true definition of a blizzard from the National Weather Service.

Blowing and/or falling snow with winds of at least 35 mph, reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less for at least three hours.

Snow doesn't necessarily have to be falling. It can already be on the ground. Anyway, the answer to your question is HELL YES!

Image thanks to CB's evening update. 18Z GFS wind gusts.

GFSwindgusts.png

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:14 pm**

The next 2 images come from CB's evening update. 12Z Euro Upper Low Track vs the 18Z GFS upper low track. Both have a strong closed low moving thru the OV. The GFS has a better track for us to remain all snow where the Euro is further north so it's rain to snow. If you're like me and a major snow weenie, the 18Z GFS shows the maximum a.k.a worst scenario possible. Low chance obviously, but the snow lover in me says Bring It On!

12Z Euro:

EURO12ZULL.gif

18Z GFS

GFS18ZULL.gif

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:23 pm**

18Z GFS Kuchera snowfall. Save this for your wall paper in your bedroom.

WALLPAPER.png

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:29 pm**

Any chance you can post it?

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:35 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:29 pm Any chance you can post it?

Post what?

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:37 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:35 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:29 pm Any chance you can post it?
Post what?

Sorry, CB's update... or provide a link? Thanks

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:39 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:37 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:35 pm
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:29 pm Any chance you can post it?
Post what?
Sorry, CB's update... or provide a link? Thanks

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=56777

Posted: **Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:54 pm**

So here's the game plan with this system....

NAM is still not within range yet. 0Z GFS starts at 10:30pm tonight CMC at 11 and the Euro at 1am. If anyone is up that late and wants to post what they see, go for it! Tim, Bgoney, myself, etc. have all talked about what you want to see to get a big system. The most important thing is the position and strength of the PNA Ridge (ridge along the West Coast of North America). You know what to look for as far as that goes, digging of the trough, phasing, closing off of the upper level low.... we've covered the pros and cons of it all.

I don't need to be here for you to post and discuss. I don't need to be here for you to start a storm thread. (Please wait until 0Z runs are in is all I ask). If it looks legit then by all means start it! I'm not talking a monster. I am talking about an event that would give us a White Christmas. 1-3" or 2-4" start up that storm thread! If the models somehow keep that big dog look after the 0Z runs are done, then DUH, start it up! I am heading to bed. I'll be on early to check things out before I head to my Brother's tomorrow morning. My posting is limited for a good chunk of this weekend, but you can still discuss this system without me being around. Granted if things look good esp if it's for a bigger system I will find time on my phone to look and post a little bit. I mean come on, you know me better then that!

Anyway you all get the point.

Absolute Vorticity

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