November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

I need to grind leaves one more time then I'll be ready to receive some snow in December. So we've got the next 2 rain makers to track to finish out November. I am thinking for a pattern change to cold sometime in the Dec 10-15th period. Last time I made a call I was a week late so I wouldn't mind that again. But realistically, mid Dec is a good call right now for the flip back to winter.

Les though we are getting milder over the next 7 days its not like big time warm and dry spell. Going to be stormier and though temps will average above normal its nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year and really sort of normal late Nov/early Dec as we get mainly rain but folks to the west are starting to have snow.

I agree Tim. The cold and snow will be building to our NW at this time and ready to invade our area when the time is right. What you do think about an early call for the wintry flip here? I mentioned 12/10-12/15.

That is pretty close Les and though you can never rule out some back end snows with systems before that but I believe by mid-moth we are getting in that really nice area where snow/ice is more likely than rain. I have been looking at 12/15 or later but if we continue to see the mjo moving right along and blocking gets going earlier than I thought then the 12/10-12/15 seems correct. Again timing is always the hardest part but there is to much info showing us getting into a winter time pattern. When we can stay out of phases 3 -5 during the winter it makes feel better about winter weather and though we sort of touched phase 5 we are in phase 6 and moving towards phase 7 and hopefully 8. If somehow we can stay in 8 and move into phase 1 then we will have many late nights lol.

[dce]

I need to grind leaves one more time then I'll be ready to receive some snow in December. So we've got the next 2 rain makers to track to finish out November. I am thinking for a pattern change to cold sometime in the Dec 10-15th period. Last time I made a call I was a week late so I wouldn't mind that again. But realistically, mid Dec is a good call right now for the flip back to winter.

Les though we are getting milder over the next 7 days its not like big time warm and dry spell. Going to be stormier and though temps will average above normal its nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year and really sort of normal late Nov/early Dec as we get mainly rain but folks to the west are starting to have snow.

I agree Tim. The cold and snow will be building to our NW at this time and ready to invade our area when the time is right. What you do think about an early call for the wintry flip here? I mentioned 12/10-12/15.

That is pretty close Les and though you can never rule out some back end snows with systems before that but I believe by mid-moth we are getting in that really nice area where snow/ice is more likely than rain. I have been looking at 12/15 or later but if we continue to see the mjo moving right along and blocking gets going earlier than I thought then the 12/10-12/15 seems correct. Again timing is always the hardest part but there is to much info showing us getting into a winter time pattern. When we can stay out of phases 3 -5 during the winter it makes feel better about winter weather and though we sort of touched phase 5 we are in phase 6 and moving towards phase 7 and hopefully 8. If somehow we can stay in 8 and move into phase 1 then we will have many late nights lol.

The latest GFS and Euro ensembles suggest an earlier turn to some pretty cold weather. I know you don't always follow the timing of the models. The models could be rushing things. We will soon find out. Images courtesy of Bamwx.

[tron777]

Great posts guys, thanks so much! We need to see how quickly the -EPO / -NAO develops as well as the MJO to try and nail down the timing. Also do both ridges bridge, or connect for some really wild and crazy weather? Also need to watch that too in the fantasy range.

[tron777]

[tron777]

The only change I'd make to our short term forecast is to keep most of Sat during the day dry and bring in rain overnight and esp on Sunday with the second system. Otherwise, the timing of the first one is Thanksgiving night into Black Friday esp in the morning hours. Should dry out thereafter IMO. Still like my 0.50 to 1" call for event total rainfall.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean today seems to want to flip us to winter after 12/5. Nice temp. gradient pattern showing up again as mentioned previously, with above normal precip for KY and TN showing up. That means the cold air is really close by if not over some of AV Country for wintry precip chances. I like after 12/10 giving it the customary 1-2 week buffer that is required since models tend to rush pattern changes too much (both ending them and beginning them).

[tron777]

For the end of Nov system.. strong storms maybe, or do we not see enough CAPE? We need to keep an eye on that system as well even before we track the pattern change for December. It is Holiday Season yes... but make time for AV because the weather's going to be busy this year and a topic of discussion in my honest and humble opinion. I'm getting excited for mid Dec.

[tpweather]

12Z GEFS Mean today seems to want to flip us to winter after 12/5. Nice temp. gradient pattern showing up again as mentioned previously, with above normal precip for KY and TN showing up. That means the cold air is really close by if not over some of AV Country for wintry precip chances. I like after 12/10 giving it the customary 1-2 week buffer that is required since models tend to rush pattern changes too much (both ending them and beginning them).

Wonderful post Les and the best line is your last sentence. Models usually bring in winter weather to quickly and sure sometimes they are correct but for the most part a little early and of course they rush the end as well and that is usually because you have snow on the ground and systems tend to stay further south when that happens and the change usually takes an extra 3-5 days. Again not every time but my guess if you go back the past 10 years models rushing in winter and getting out of winter weather is close to 60 p/c.

I mentioned yesterday we could see a thundershower or two next week and though not expecting any major outbreak but the winds could be rather strong for a period of time.

Third item is the second system this weekend and I went up to .75-1.25 for both systems as the first system should help in moistening the atmosphere which helps in getting a longer period of rainfall late Saturday and Sunday.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS Mean today seems to want to flip us to winter after 12/5. Nice temp. gradient pattern showing up again as mentioned previously, with above normal precip for KY and TN showing up. That means the cold air is really close by if not over some of AV Country for wintry precip chances. I like after 12/10 giving it the customary 1-2 week buffer that is required since models tend to rush pattern changes too much (both ending them and beginning them).

Wonderful post Les and the best line is your last sentence. Models usually bring in winter weather to quickly and sure sometimes they are correct but for the most part a little early and of course they rush the end as well and that is usually because you have snow on the ground and systems tend to stay further south when that happens and the change usually takes an extra 3-5 days. Again not every time but my guess if you go back the past 10 years models rushing in winter and getting out of winter weather is close to 60 p/c.

I mentioned yesterday we could see a thundershower or two next week and though not expecting any major outbreak but the winds could be rather strong for a period of time.

Third item is the second system this weekend and I went up to .75-1.25 for both systems as the first system should help in moistening the atmosphere which helps in getting a longer period of rainfall late Saturday and Sunday.

Thanks Tim! It looks like we are pretty much on the same page for the next few systems / weeks. I like that! Hope you have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow! Go Lions! Even though they will probably get killed.

[Bgoney]

Tim , rooting for those higher amounts, haven't looked in detail yet at 12z , I think I'll stick with where I'm at and wait for Oz, but looking like it will be a bit low. I was thinking we might get dry slotted a bit with the low track , but not looking like that is going to happen

[tpweather]

Les Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. The Lions are improving and I like the coach. Next year watch out as I don't trust Chicago and Minnesota is good but again they are not quite the 8-2 record imo and of course Green Bay and who knows if Rodgers is gone.

[tpweather]

Tim , rooting for those higher amounts, haven't looked in detail yet at 12z , I think I'll stick with where I'm at and wait for Oz, but looking like it will be a bit low. I was thinking we might get dry slotted a bit with the low track , but not looking like that is going to happen

Bgoney I looked at that and the last few runs have the system a little further northwest and yes that dry slot always scares me. The first system under .25 seems correct and how far north does the precip go on Saturday before we see it heading east/northeast. I would probably go in on the low end of my forecast but I had to go a little higher in case we get a couple of hours where it rains harder and you get that .3-.5 in 3 hours.

[tron777]

Les Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. The Lions are improving and I like the coach. Next year watch out as I don't trust Chicago and Minnesota is good but again they are not quite the 8-2 record imo and of course Green Bay and who knows if Rodgers is gone.

Thanks Tim! Rodgers is a mess and yes... Dan Campbell is moving the Lions in the right direction. The addition of Aiden Hutchinson (Rookie) on Defense from the Univ of Mich has been magnificent!

[tpweather]

Tim , rooting for those higher amounts, haven't looked in detail yet at 12z , I think I'll stick with where I'm at and wait for Oz, but looking like it will be a bit low. I was thinking we might get dry slotted a bit with the low track , but not looking like that is going to happen

Just wanted to add and this is about a dry slot. Usually the stronger a system the more likely to get a dry slot so then you are playing the odds of whether you get that dry slot which cuts down totals or you remain in the heavier part of the storm. So it be a balancing act and the place that stays just to the northwest of a dry slot the chances for higher precip totals. So hopefully we get a clearer ideal over the next day or two on exactly where the low should track. I also believe the somewhat slower process of the low should help add a touch more preicp. Again this is nothing major but still would be nice to have the higher totals though as I mentioned before I put in a Christmas decoration outside and the ground was frozen in spots.

[tron777]

57 beautiful degrees right now! too bad I am working. I'd be grinding leaves otherwise. Might do it tomorrow even though it is a holiday.

[Browneyedgirl]

I’m going to the OSU Xichigan game. Think the rain will hold off?

[tpweather]

I’m going to the OSU Xichigan game. Think the rain will hold off?

Yes since its an early game you should be fine. Enjoy the game

[tpweather]

Looks like each model run wants to keep the rain at bay longer and longer. This is a little concern with rain totals. With they system later Thursday and Friday we have a cold front that moves through though weak it brings some cooler air back into the area. Getting precip to go over a cooler area usually you get the max out of the system. The problem is the longer it takes for the moisture to arrive we have time to warm up Saturday and we don't get the max with the system. Something to monitor and not changing at the moment but like most system 3 days away we have some concerns. I saw the pna may go negative after the next month begins and this could help in getting colder air to filter further south and east. Still going to wait on the timing because we tend to get these head fakes quite often but will watch for the trends over the next several days.

[tron777]

I’m going to the OSU Xichigan game. Think the rain will hold off?

Yes since its an early game you should be fine. Enjoy the game

I was wondering if they were going to change it to a primetime game since both teams are undefeated and ranked #2 and #3? Plus... it is the biggest rivalry in all sports but as far as I know it is still a noon kick off.

[MVWxObserver]

A BLESSED THANKSGIVING TO YOU AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!! LOVE YOU ALL AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR WXBUDDY FRIENDSHIP!!

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 30 early Thanksgiving morning and then a beaut of a day with topping out near 60!

[tron777]

60 here today, should repeat it tomorrow. We will start your Thanksgiving in the 30s with sunshine and cloud up in the afternoon. Showers move in during the late evening hours and become likely after midnight. Showers end Fri morning then dry rest of the day. Expecting light amounts mainly 0.10" with isolated 0.25" amounts possible. Expecting the main thrust of moisture with the southern low coming in from the SW late in the day on Sat and esp overnight and on Sunday ending midday to early afternoon time period. Expecting that 0.50" to 0.75" here as we previously discussed for an event total of 0.50 to 1" for most folks.

Highs in the 40s and 50s thereafter. Rain likely, maybe some thunderstorms Tues night and Wed of next week to round out November. Then we are on to Met. winter!

[tron777]

MJO is moving... as of 11/22 def in Phase 6 as we've discussed.

AussieMJO.gif

I have talked about the MJO models already. Do we get to 7 then it dies or 8? That'll make a big difference by Week 2 of December. It's the difference between the cold bleeding in here or maybe never fully getting in... or it does charge in here if it's in 8? I think the PNA will remain negative due to Nina forcing with systems coming into the West. However, EPO and NAO are still forecast to go negative in December so that would mean a cold and stormy pattern. I am going with my 12/10 to 12/15 call right now for the flip to winter. The earliest wouldn't be until 12/5 but I think it's a bit rushed and need to give the pattern more time to develop.

EPO.jpg

NAO.jpg

[tron777]

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all of you! Thanks for sticking with us all of these years and we hope you all are enjoying our new home! Here's to a great winter ahead!!!

[Weathermanbryan]

Have a good thanksgiving too Les! Hopefully this winter will be good for us!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Happy Thanksgiving. Not much has changed in the forecast over the next 4 days and yesterday we saw the system for Saturday is just slowing down but the overall theme is still the same. Rainfall and we can use some and though we will be under .25 late tonight and Friday the total for late Saturday and Sunday imo will be in the .75-1 inch locally. This would bring the total for the next 4 days in the 1-1.25 range.

Next week we have another system getting in here mid-week so a very quick turnaround and this tells me we are getting into a busier pattern but one that becomes more zonal so rain instead of snow if the main type for us locally. This will start to lay down a snow cover to the north and west of here which is always good and especially when we see a bigger push of colder air that I believe gets in here starting the 3rd week of December. So expecting the colder air to stay to our west for several weeks and we end up milder than normal but will get some cold to invade after each storm but lasting only a day or two. Once I start to a strong storm that digs into the southern plains is a sign that the pattern change to colder is on the way. Not seeing that over the next few weeks and another reason I am not seeing the pattern change to winter weather.

I hope my forecast is wrong because I love winter weather and I can only forecast what I see and not what I hear.