Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and another ground hog day ahead. Funny but I missed this weeks forecast in terms of how high the temps could reach but some of the met's went to high. This happens quite often and the correct answer many times is somewhere in the middle. No doubt we thought the heat index would be the main problem and that has been the case.

Today we know is horrible outside but what happens on Thursday has to deal with the cold front. When this arrives can make a big difference whether we get some nice rains or more spotty and light. Models vary on this as expected and I have not really spent much time on when the front comes through. The good thing is starting Friday dew points will come down and make the weekend enjoyable enough to get outside. The ridge builds back next week. If we get little in the rainfall on Thursday then we may start to see some stress on vegetation and though this can help temps rise a little faster next week the dew points may be down. Again not going to be picnic either way but maybe not quite as bad with the heat index.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:43 am

Code: Select all

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2022

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT CINCINNATI OH...

THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON JUNE 14TH AT CINCINNATI OH WAS 75. THIS IS 
THE WARMEST ON RECORD, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 73 IN 2015.

Great Post Les and when the dew point is unable to fall you get a record like this.

Good morning all! We start the day with some weather history, see above post. My low was 76 this morning so you know it'll be 80 before you know it. Probably will hit 90 in that 11-12pm range then it's off to the races with the heat index.

Models continue to only show isolated activity Thus afternoon and evening with most folks probably not seeing much. Forcing is weak with the front and severe wx chances are also isolated for our Eastern counties. For Fri morning, the GFS has backed off a bit on rainfall there keeping most of it S of the River. Euro has isolated to scattered activity for Central KY only on Fri. So rain chances aren't very high for the foreseeable future.

Hoping the longer term GFS is right with more of an active pattern and a return to an Eastern US trough as we get towards the later portion of next week. We're talking post June 23rd or so. As usual we shall see. The heat is either going to continue or we'll get a nice break.

Great Post Les. I just spent the past 10 minutes or so looking at chances for rain later Thursday and really early Friday. Yes there are some things that say very little will fall but I believe later Thursday night and early Friday morning we may have a nice area of light to moderate rain falling. The hard part is where this exactly happens. The front is going to be near us and with the moisture building up once again during the day you can get a nice 4-6 hours of rainfall before drier air arrives. Will watch this carefully but I am a little more positive about rain chances than the models.

My low was 75 here and already 78. Definitely going to be a hot one!

Not much of a breeze going out there . Probably hang it up early today

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:13 am Great Post Les. I just spent the past 10 minutes or so looking at chances for rain later Thursday and really early Friday. Yes there are some things that say very little will fall but I believe later Thursday night and early Friday morning we may have a nice area of light to moderate rain falling. The hard part is where this exactly happens. The front is going to be near us and with the moisture building up once again during the day you can get a nice 4-6 hours of rainfall before drier air arrives. Will watch this carefully but I am a little more positive about rain chances than the models.

I would agree if we have better forcing. Now if the models are wrong about the forcing then you'll be right with this call for sure.

86 / 74 here already. HI is 94. Def going to be a brutal day!

12Z NAM is dry on Thurs. Scattered storms for the Tri-state Fri morning with an MCS missing us and impacting Western KY.

12Z HRRR has little for Thurs but does impact the Tri-state with the MCS Fri morning.

Temp up to 85 here now.

87 here, 86 CVG as of 11am.

12Z GFS has scattered action late Thurs afternoon and evening then the MCS for the Tri-state and esp NKY Fri morning. I know we don't need severe wx but I could use the rain. We didn't get anything down here the other day and these 90s dry the clay out pretty quickly down here. Surface starting to crack where there isn't sufficient grass cover or shade. May have to break out the sprinkler and start watering to save my lawn if I do not see anything Thurs or Fri. Had to water my plants today. Heat was starting to take its toll on them.

90 as of 12:45pm at CVG. 92 here as of 12:53pm.

12Z Euro has scattered storms Thurs afternoon and evening. Best chance I-70 Crew and N Cincy burbs. No MCS of any kind for Fri morning. Model roulette.

This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:09 pm This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Yeah the Euro has consistently shown 100 degree temps. We haven't seen that since July of 2012. HOPEFULLY, it is overdone and it is showing too much mixing. The GFS would be more of what we have already seen, low to mid 90s.

Currently 91 here in G'ville with a DP of 63. Progged to top out at around 95.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:11 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:09 pm This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Yeah the Euro has consistently shown 100 degree temps. We haven't seen that since July of 2012. HOPEFULLY, it is overdone and it is showing too much mixing. The GFS would be more of what we have already seen, low to mid 90s.

The set-up will be more favorable next week for that kind of heat. Ground moisture locally will be much less than the mostly saturated soils to begin our current warm stretch. Also the region to our SW is currently dryer than we are with even a chunk of "abnormally dry" showing up in the southern OV

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:11 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:09 pm This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Yeah the Euro has consistently shown 100 degree temps. We haven't seen that since July of 2012. HOPEFULLY, it is overdone and it is showing too much mixing. The GFS would be more of what we have already seen, low to mid 90s.

The set-up will be more favorable next week for that kind of heat. Ground moisture locally will be much less than the mostly saturated soils to begin our current warm stretch. Also the region to our SW is currently dryer than we are with even a chunk of "abnormally dry" showing up in the southern OV

I sure hope we don't see another 2012 again. It's trying to trend that way unfortunately. Damn La Nina!

Excessive heat warning expires at 8pm and it getting replaced with a heat advisory from 8pm tonight thru 8pm tomorrow.

Not sure what the official high will be today but again somewhere in the middle of most forecasts. Funny how the warmth came in blazing Monday a little quicker then we sort of leveled off Tuesday and Wednesday even though dew points were a tad lower. How high on Thursday and since we are just south of the cold front low 90's seem correct. Concerning rainfall and I still believe models are not handling the cold front. I am not even sure the models that seem to show a mcs is really a true mcs but just moisture build up near the front. Not sure how you figure out if a complex forms will be considered and mcs or not. Will take a little time Friday but drier air will move in and a nice weekend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:26 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:11 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:09 pm This week's heat is just a warm-up to next week's real heat according to the EU.

Yeah the Euro has consistently shown 100 degree temps. We haven't seen that since July of 2012. HOPEFULLY, it is overdone and it is showing too much mixing. The GFS would be more of what we have already seen, low to mid 90s.

The set-up will be more favorable next week for that kind of heat. Ground moisture locally will be much less than the mostly saturated soils to begin our current warm stretch. Also the region to our SW is currently dryer than we are with even a chunk of "abnormally dry" showing up in the southern OV

I sure hope we don't see another 2012 again. It's trying to trend that way unfortunately. Damn La Nina!

Yea , it's probably been mentioned but the last.time there was such widespread damage locally was when we got the tail of the derecho in 2012