Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:24 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 4:23 pm Rain is starting now... Thunder and lightning too.

Not sure what side of Burlington you are in Les, but looks like the hail core will come either right over you or close unless it dissipates.

Screenshot 2022-05-25 162518.png

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:26 pm**

Wind picking up a bit now. Rain picking up as well. Nothing severe yet. Still watching. I am just E of Burlington by like 2 or 3 miles. Gonna be close.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:29 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 4:26 pm Wind picking up a bit now. Rain picking up as well. Nothing severe yet. Still watching. I am just E of Burlington by like 2 or 3 miles. Gonna be close.

Dang - then the core might miss you by a mile or two.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:30 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 4:29 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 4:26 pm Wind picking up a bit now. Rain picking up as well. Nothing severe yet. Still watching. I am just E of Burlington by like 2 or 3 miles. Gonna be close.
Dang - then the core might miss you by a mile or two.

Probably. Looks like I'm just getting clipped.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:31 pm**

Western Boone and West side of Cincy are fair game.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:32 pm**

That might be it here. LOL. Kinda sad. Not much rain maybe a tenth or so if that. Oh well. More chances to come. Temp was at 83 now down to 74.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 4:48 pm**

Currently ILN has 91 for Tues and 92 Wed in CVG. Will be interesting to see if conditions allow a 90 mark for Wed for the 1st day of the contest.

81 with a DP of 63 right now here in G'ville.

So far dry here today.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 5:13 pm**

Eric... I have two thoughts on that. One, how much rain do we get thru Friday and do we see any isolated storm coverage on Wed or does that hold off until Thurs? The later of the two is the most important. The last time we saw models show this it failed horribly. The front was faster then projected and I think mid 80s was all we did the last time. The set up looks awfully similar to me so we'll see. I'd go with the upper 80s certainly at this early stage and see how the heights look as well as 850 temps as we get closer towards next week. Certainly a chance to get our first 90 if everything comes together. Euro has 500 MB heights at 591 DM so 90 is a close call based on that alone. The GFS is warmer with 594 DM so low 90s would be the call. This is based on today's 12Z runs so subject to change.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 5:30 pm**

My temp rose back up to 76, now getting another downpour again.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 5:37 pm**

My dome shows up quite nicely on the 3km NAM QPF total map. LOL

dome.png

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 5:42 pm**

Louisville gotten 2 rounds of heavy rain so far

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 6:06 pm**

CVG on the board now with 0.03"

Two storms here and a tenth is all I have to show for it. Not much but I have a feeling tomorrow and Friday will make up for it for most folks.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 6:46 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 5:13 pm Eric... I have two thoughts on that. One, how much rain do we get thru Friday and do we see any isolated storm coverage on Wed or does that hold off until Thurs? The later of the two is the most important. The last time we saw models show this it failed horribly. The front was faster then projected and I think mid 80s was all we did the last time. The set up looks awfully similar to me so we'll see. I'd go with the upper 80s certainly at this early stage and see how the heights look as well as 850 temps as we get closer towards next week. Certainly a chance to get our first 90 if everything comes together. Euro has 500 MB heights at 591 DM so 90 is a close call based on that alone. The GFS is warmer with 594 DM so low 90s would be the call. This is based on today's 12Z runs so subject to change.

Hi Les,

Yes, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 6:49 pm**

Hearing thunder now here in G'ville.

So far so good as the Redlegs / Cubbies are now in the 1st inning.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 7:00 pm**

This is about the 3rd or 4th downpour I have seen today. This go around the rain looks to last longer. Nothing severe at all. Thunder and mod to hvy rain at times is what I continue to see. Up to about a quarter of an inch this far on the day. As of 7pm, CVG checking in with 0.04 as of 6:55pm. They are adding on now though as we speak. I think it is a slam dunk for the wettest May on record once we get thru Friday (if we don't hit it before then). The record is unavoidable IMO.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 7:28 pm**

Pretty good cell just moved over my house. Heavy wind and rain. Picked up 0.7” in under 10 minutes. Power is now out.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 7:36 pm**

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 7:28 pm Pretty good cell just moved over my house. Heavy wind and rain. Picked up 0.7” in under 10 minutes. Power is now out.

Wow! Surprised you lost power. ILN had a special weather statement for only 40 mph winds so it wasn't severe at all. I wonder if a dead limb came down to take down a line or maybe there was a wreck nearby or something.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 7:46 pm**

So far it’s the dome show - downpour to my south May bring me a few hundredths we shall see.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 7:54 pm**

These little cells.sure are fast movers

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 8:02 pm**

0.06” in three minutes of rain

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 8:38 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 7:36 pm
snowbo wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 7:28 pm Pretty good cell just moved over my house. Heavy wind and rain. Picked up 0.7” in under 10 minutes. Power is now out.
Wow! Surprised you lost power. ILN had a special weather statement for only 40 mph winds so it wasn't severe at all. I wonder if a dead limb came down to take down a line or maybe there was a wreck nearby or something.

Winds definitely 50+ easy - super heavy!

Sitting in my little camper watching TV on battery power.

Posted: **Wed May 25, 2022 9:01 pm**

15 minute t-shower here . Brief 30-40 mph winds.

Posted: **Thu May 26, 2022 12:59 am**

Picked up an inch for Wed.

Posted: **Thu May 26, 2022 5:48 am**

Shear is impressive for later this afternoon and evening. Mods showing pockets of at.least 40-50. If any breaks in the showers and storms during the day give way to a bit of sunshine, chances of severe ramp up considerably

Posted: **Thu May 26, 2022 6:27 am**

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 8:38 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 7:36 pm
snowbo wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 7:28 pm Pretty good cell just moved over my house. Heavy wind and rain. Picked up 0.7” in under 10 minutes. Power is now out.
Wow! Surprised you lost power. ILN had a special weather statement for only 40 mph winds so it wasn't severe at all. I wonder if a dead limb came down to take down a line or maybe there was a wreck nearby or something.
Winds definitely 50+ easy - super heavy!

Sitting in my little camper watching TV on battery power.

Wow! Radar didn't pick up on that one did it? Hope the power came back on for you overnight.

Absolute Vorticity

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