Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:26 pm
ILN doesn’t know what to tell you will happen. So they don’t have a forecast that they can add to the warning.
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Page 28 of 78
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:27 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:28 pm
Come on GFS......
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:30 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:32 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:39 pm
GFS has started
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:46 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:54 pm
ILN has been leaning to the NAM and a EU blend from the get go with their map release yesterday , and now latest Nam is even Less snow , so yea, they're holding on to the cards they have for now
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:54 pm
One big storm.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:58 pm
GFS has freezing rain at 1a, sleet at 4a, then snow at 7p. Looks like little ice, but 4” of sleet and 6” of snow.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:58 pm
Untrained eye says 18z GFS has a little longer period of sleet than 12z, but there is still a changeover to snow Thursday evening with more on the way....
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:00 pm
So yes GFS still shows lots of snow on the 10:1, but it concerns me when you look at the soundings in that 800-850 mb layer on Thursday in the peak of wave two it flirts with the zero line even on the GFS. Very worried about a sleet fest here as we have discussed already LOL
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:15 pm
.dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
I also recall other storms in the last few years that were supposed to be big snow makers and ended up with more sleet that we thought. The mantra then was "Warm Air Always Wins", and unless this is a very special storm, we should keep that in mind. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but that is what this casual observer has observed over the years. I would much rather have a bunch of sleet and snow versus ICE. Keeping my fingers crossed. Thanks for the great info everyone!!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:16 pm
So does that mean less freezing rain? I’d love to keep my trees and power.
Thanks for the great info!
Thanks for the great info!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:29 pm
18Z GFS text data
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 06Z 03-FEB 0.0 3.0 1021 95 97 0.27 562 545
THU 12Z 03-FEB -2.9 2.1 1024 94 95 0.18 563 544
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.6 1.6 1024 94 97 0.28 564 545
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.5 -1.3 1024 95 98 0.76 563 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.5 -3.2 1026 94 95 0.21 561 541
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.9 -5.7 1029 95 96 0.07 557 535
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -5.5 -7.0 1031 86 73 0.02 555 531
HAO
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.7 2.5 1022 93 96 0.26 561 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.7 0.5 1025 92 97 0.15 562 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.2 -0.1 1025 95 98 0.26 563 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.0 -2.2 1025 94 98 0.66 562 543
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.1 -4.3 1027 93 97 0.17 560 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.4 -6.2 1029 94 95 0.06 556 534
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -6.6 -7.7 1031 83 68 0.01 554 530
MGY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.4 2.0 1022 93 97 0.25 561 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.3 -0.6 1026 93 98 0.16 561 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.6 -1.0 1025 95 98 0.23 562 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.5 -2.7 1026 94 97 0.61 562 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.5 -4.6 1027 93 98 0.16 559 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.8 -6.3 1029 93 92 0.05 556 534
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -7.3 -7.9 1031 83 62 0.01 553 529
DAY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -3.5 1.2 1023 92 96 0.27 560 542
THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.1 -2.3 1026 94 98 0.16 561 540
THU 18Z 03-FEB -6.0 -3.2 1026 95 98 0.22 562 541
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -8.0 -3.8 1026 94 97 0.51 561 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -9.1 -5.3 1027 93 97 0.13 558 538
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.3 -6.7 1030 91 87 0.04 555 533
CMH
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.1 1.9 1022 94 98 0.25 561 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.8 0.3 1025 92 98 0.18 562 542
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.9 -1.2 1026 93 98 0.16 563 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.9 -2.5 1025 95 98 0.61 562 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.4 -4.2 1026 94 97 0.26 560 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.5 -6.3 1028 95 95 0.07 556 535
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -6.1 -7.8 1030 87 59 0.02 552 530
FGX
THU 18Z 03-FEB -1.8 4.7 1021 96 99 0.25 566 550
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.2 1.2 1022 95 99 0.95 566 548
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.3 0.0 1023 95 99 0.48 564 546
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.0 -3.4 1027 96 98 0.10 560 540
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -4.6 -6.3 1030 92 90 0.05 557 534
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -12.0 -6.9 1033 98 75 0.01 556 530
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:39 pm
Alright WTH i'll give it a shot with a "first Call" snow map. Before the snow, Sleet/FR mix .30-.70 qpf. Freezing rain for SE crew .25-.50"
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:42 pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:47 pm
I think the map looks great Bgoney! I was going to make a map after dinner but might not really have to after looking at that. Sleet / frz rain is the major precip type esp down here. I-70 Crew can go either way from that to hvy snow. N tier of counties and Eric are locked in!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:50 pm
What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:51 pm
First wave already getting its act together:
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:51 pm
I had 3 different ones I made after 12z, this one made the cuttron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:47 pm I think the map looks great Bgoney! I was going to make a map after dinner but might not really have to after looking at that. Sleet / frz rain is the major precip type esp down here. I-70 Crew can go either way from that to hvy snow. N tier of counties and Eric are locked in!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:52 pm
I think 1/4" of ice is likely. 1/2" worst case scenario. Sleet Couple of inches worst case.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:50 pm What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:57 pm
About what I was thinking. Maybe inch or two snow at end.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:52 pmI think 1/4" of ice is likely. 1/2" worst case scenario. Sleet Couple of inches worst case.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 5:50 pm What’s thoughts on my area. Frz rain and sleet amounts. Guesstimate
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:04 pm
Good Evening and Les when is the next model run lol. A few things to look over the past 24 hours and here are my thoughts on what may happen. I would draw a map but that is not pretty. What we have seen from most models is the colder air makes a push further south and east than the forecast 24 hours ago. Saying that the cold air is very dense and after this first wave how far south and east before we start to feel the influence from the second wave.. I will continue to harp on the time in between the waves because I believe it is a major part of the forecast. Next the second wave though not gaining much strength over the past 24 hours it does seem to have more moisture and this can translate a few thousand feet above the ground. Here is another point does the low pressure stay further south like the gfs shows or is more in line with the nam and yes there is a difference there in where the low goes. Precip types and I know a lot of the data is supporting sleet and believe I prefer that over frz/rain all the time but that usually happens when we are at the height of the system. At the moment this looks to be Thursday Afternoon locally and during the day how far has temps dropped during this time. I am giving into the sleet somewhat but hesitant though the data is becoming increasing likely there is going to be an area that is stuck in the sleet fest for several hours. I am not exactly sure where that is at the moment but what I do believe is that the area just north of the sleet is going to get pounded with heavy snow and that could be within 30 miles of CVG. Indy will get their snow but the second wave may be far enough away from them that they end up with maybe 10 inches instead of 15 as an example. How much frz/rain is tricky because we know if the rain is to heavy it may have a harder time sticking to surfaces. The problem here is it looks like when the frz/rain is falling the precip is not to heavy so this can cause a major ice problem on the roads especially as temps fall during the day. Next problem will be the wind and that will pick up later in the day Thursday and this can be a problem if the ice does form and could see power lines down.
So in the end I sort of like Bgoney's map though I believe I would up the amounts by about 1 inch or so with each area except the northwest part of this map I may boost that up to a 8-12 inch possible total. Thanks for reading my short novel and I gladly sign this if needed lol.
So in the end I sort of like Bgoney's map though I believe I would up the amounts by about 1 inch or so with each area except the northwest part of this map I may boost that up to a 8-12 inch possible total. Thanks for reading my short novel and I gladly sign this if needed lol.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:10 pm
The Cliff Notes version of your book - "Fun Times Ahead"tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:04 pm Good Evening and Les when is the next model run lol. A few things to look over the past 24 hours and here are my thoughts on what may happen. I would draw a map but that is not pretty. What we have seen from most models is the colder air makes a push further south and east than the forecast 24 hours ago. Saying that the cold air is very dense and after this first wave how far south and east before we start to feel the influence from the second wave.. I will continue to harp on the time in between the waves because I believe it is a major part of the forecast. Next the second wave though not gaining much strength over the past 24 hours it does seem to have more moisture and this can translate a few thousand feet above the ground. Here is another point does the low pressure stay further south like the gfs shows or is more in line with the nam and yes there is a difference there in where the low goes. Precip types and I know a lot of the data is supporting sleet and believe I prefer that over frz/rain all the time but that usually happens when we are at the height of the system. At the moment this looks to be Thursday Afternoon locally and during the day how far has temps dropped during this time. I am giving into the sleet somewhat but hesitant though the data is becoming increasing likely there is going to be an area that is stuck in the sleet fest for several hours. I am not exactly sure where that is at the moment but what I do believe is that the area just north of the sleet is going to get pounded with heavy snow and that could be within 30 miles of CVG. Indy will get their snow but the second wave may be far enough away from them that they end up with maybe 10 inches instead of 15 as an example. How much frz/rain is tricky because we know if the rain is to heavy it may have a harder time sticking to surfaces. The problem here is it looks like when the frz/rain is falling the precip is not to heavy so this can cause a major ice problem on the roads especially as temps fall during the day. Next problem will be the wind and that will pick up later in the day Thursday and this can be a problem if the ice does form and could see power lines down.
So in the end I sort of like Bgoney's map though I believe I would up the amounts by about 1 inch or so with each area except the northwest part of this map I may boost that up to a 8-12 inch possible total. Thanks for reading my short novel and I gladly sign this if needed lol.
