Absolute Vorticity

Wetter models definitely scored on this one; GFS and a couple of the high-res short range models. Down to freezing here now as I get ready for work. Sharp contrast to yesterday!

Corporate is in today so lucky me, I get to come in early to make sure things are prepared. I suppose that’s what I get for accepting a management position

26 at CVG currently. Watch for some black ice and mood flakes this morning.

We all get wet Tues ending on Wed of next week... but the GFS and CMC are still going with ice, sleet, and snow for the area Thurs and Fri. Euro still has rain for both systems next week and we need to get out the boats! So far, no changes from the overnight guidance.

Warmth returns Sunday/monday/tue, along with rain on tues. Still a toss up for thursday for cvgland with marginal temps along the river. A better chance for snow along the I70 corridor atm.

GEFS members - Majority are wintry with about 4 that rain like the Euro. I am not discounting its solution yet of course.

CVG reporting flurries but nothing here. There is a fetch off of Lake Mich this morning so some of you may get a tiny bit of action from it. Otherwise, just a normal late winter cold day.

Good Morning and a nice change in temp today. Concerning next week and the 1st system is rain and that is the easy forecast. Second one is still a toss up at this time. The models are still split and I see why. The forecast high pressures that showed 1045 or 1050 getting into the northern plains seems to have knocked that down more towards 1035-mayb 1045. The speed of the second system that gets in here later Wednesday or Thursday could be the key to what type of precip is thrown at us. I expect a mixed bag at this point and may well start out as snow if that second system is a little faster then we just need to see how much warmth is thrown in the upper atmosphere. Not leaning towards snow or rain at the moment so just going with a mix of precip for the late Wednesday-Friday period.

I'm, in toss up mode up at this point. It could go either way. We could see all p-types. Ice storm, another sleet fest, snow, or rain rain and more rain. I am sure one model will cave to the other when I get back from ice fishing.

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/02/18/snowta ... pdate-218/

Looking at the second system next week the models are in different camps than this past storm this far out. The Euro is further north and a little slower which gives time for temps to rise before the system moves in so mainly rain. The CMC is a tad faster and further north so you get a nice mix of precip. The gfs this time is the furthest south and a faster system so cold air does not move out as fast so you get a better shot of winter weather. My guess changes this weekend.

A few mood flakes here this morning. Looks like they got about 6" where I'm going.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:58 am A few mood flakes here this morning. Looks like they got about 6" where I'm going.

Les, too bad on the timing where if this storm came later and you could have seen it falling up there. Oh well, you'll see the 6 inches on the ground anyway which is better than seeing the brown grass down here. Lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:58 am A few mood flakes here this morning. Looks like they got about 6" where I'm going.

Les, too bad on the timing where if this storm came later and you could have seen it falling up there. Oh well, you'll see the 6 inches on the ground anyway which is better than seeing the brown grass down here. Lol

Yeah no doubt. Two days of 40/50s and a 1/2" of rain isn't going to phase the ice much. Snowpack is rebuilt now so should be some fun riding in addition to the fishing. Tomorrow evening, hopefully the crappie bite is good. I'll be getting there too late to hit it tonight. Wanna be out there about 3 or 4pm Sat. Get things set up and get ready for prime time!

12z gfs says still a go for rain Tuesday and still showing a system a day or two after that. To many variables at this stage with position of highs to the north and position of mid Atlantic ridging to the east, so still a toss up,, although looks like marginal temps for cvgland atm

Not seeing much change to be honest from the GFS. Any changes are minor and just model noise at this point. The CMC has the high over MN which is in a much better spot for us to get wintry wx out of the later rounds of precip. GFS is more of a mix / marginal since the high is already well northeast of the area in Canada. Need that high to drop in over MN or Iowa for a nice hit here.

GEFS members are split... some wet, some wintry.

Euro still showing rain city tracking the low right over us next Friday.

We know Tues is wet and some hvy rain may occur at times. 1-2" possible. everyone gets rain with this first wave. It pulls out on Wed as temps drop. Then, where does the front stall and how strong is the next wave for Thurs and Fri?

From the boys:

Past Tuesday, much colder air will filter back into the region for
midweek before yet another system approaches the Ohio Valley in the
Thursday/Friday time frame. With the fresh batch of cold air
entrenched across parts of the OH Vly midweek, this second system
poses more of a potential for at least /some/ wintry weather across
parts of the area. It should be stressed that there are still
numerous uncertainties regarding the evolution, placement, and even
timing of this system to be able to comment confidently on what we
should expect from it. This being said, there is a signal for
perhaps some mixed wintry precip, should the thermal profiles align
accordingly. Given the uncertainties in where these thermal profiles
will set up, and where they may oscillate through time, felt it was
best to just stick with a rain and/or snow solution in the official
fcst at this time, even recognizing the potential (and not an
insignificant one) for more of a mixed solution involving sleet
and/or freezing rain for at least part of the local area. The
inherent uncertainties at these time ranges led to the decision to
just keep it rain/snow for now to avoid overly complicated ptype
fcsts that are bound to change both spatially and temporally
numerous times between now and then.

Temps toward late week will react according to the track of the
system, which remains largely in question at this time. However,
confidence is increasing that a return to much colder air will occur
next weekend behind the late week system.

18z gfs more of the same for late week system, FRZ rain cvgland and now up to 70 corridor which is a change for them from earlier instead of snow . 850s are rather warm

Good Morning and enjoy the calm before the storm or storms as next week looks very busy in the weather department. First system later Monday through early Wednesday looks to produce some decent rains once again. A little early on totals but 1 inch looks likely and maybe more. Then we get the cold front through but how far south is the key question. Look to have waves of low pressure head northwest but the track and does one wave become a bigger system is all on the table at this point. No doubt a decent amount of cold to the northwest but how much gets in here before the waves head this way and how much more comes in behind each wave or even during one of these waves. Much to work out and going to see many changes on the models as one time they may pick up on a piece of energy to be strong and the next run not so much. Thermals will play a big part later in the week and this could lead to a period of frz/rain as well.

Temp dropped to 26 here. Windchill is brutal.
Perfect day for Holly Berry picking for a flock of robins

Good Afternoon and last night the Euro headed towards the cmc and gfs which means the second system late in the week has a mixed bag at this point and again the track of the system plus the thermals will determine precip types. The main item from the models is next weekend some really really cold air and if we happen to have snow on the ground then some low records may be set. Way to early has we have two other systems to get through but next weekend will no doubt be a 3 dog night.

Keeping tabs on Thurs i.e. as my folks and I have some business that we'd like to take care of in Englewood, OH that morning.

Hopefully any mix or snow holding off until Thurs afternoon. If not, may postpone until sometime in March.

Currently 19 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 on Sun morning.

Return to our 3 days of warmth starting today. Tues rain still a go of course , 1-2" qpf , with the 1" closer to I70 and the 2" along the river , keeping rivers and streams on the high side, but i don't think this will be as widespread 2+" amounts that we just had, Those amounts should stay to our south . Thursday's mess still a go also with 850 temps up and down throughout the region with EU of course much warmer for 850s. Coming in 2 waves scenario,

Not liking the GFS output; another ice storm.