Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!

EDIT: It's 113,

The highest temperature officially recorded in Canada is 45 °C (113 °F) on July 5, 1937 at Midale and at Yellow Grass, two small towns in southeastern Saskatchewan.

I think it will also spill into the Pacific NW of the US this weekend as I hear Seattle may top 100 and Portland 110+. For Portland, their all-time high is 107 so this would definitely be one for the record books! Of course the global warming fear mongers are loving this!

Good morning Tim! Fri thru this weekend will feature multiple rounds of storms that weaken as they head our way. No doubt the further west you go the better your chances are. For us here locally, I am keeping POPS in but low as I've pointed out. I think for next week, that is when our highest chances will be. We should be able to pinpoint timing and location better once we see how good or bad the models are doing thru this weekend.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!


This pattern is going to stick around a while. Stubborn winter blocking in summer

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Love to see this pattern 6 months from today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!


This pattern is going to stick around a while. Stubborn winter blocking in summer

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Love to see this pattern 6 months from today.

You got that right!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!

EDIT: It's 113,

The highest temperature officially recorded in Canada is 45 °C (113 °F) on July 5, 1937 at Midale and at Yellow Grass, two small towns in southeastern Saskatchewan.

I think it will also spill into the Pacific NW of the US this weekend as I hear Seattle may top 100 and Portland 110+. For Portland, their all-time high is 107 so this would definitely be one for the record books! Of course the global warming fear mongers are loving this!

Absolutely Mike! The MSM is eating this up. It's too bad that they don't talk about the science or the meteorology behind it like we do on here then anyone with an ounce of brains would realize that these processes are perfectly natural in our atmosphere.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:41 am Side Note: Record heat in Western Canada is forecast. We're talking all time records in the next several days to week ahead. 94 is the all time record for Vancouver, BC and that has a shot of getting broken. The all time highest temp ever recorded in Canada I believe is either 114 or 115. That may have a shot as well. Pretty remarkable! Imagine this set up in winter. WOW!


This pattern is going to stick around a while. Stubborn winter blocking in summer

Totally agree Bgoney. The hot July idea is slowly fading. Def for the first half of the month anyway I think.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/24/goode- ... -blog-624/

59 this morning for a low at CVG and also mby.

58 here this morning.

The lawn is mowed again and looking great. This is my own little contest for myself to see if I can hit the pattern through next Friday July 2nd. I am going with 2.77 inches of rain at CVG and 2 90 degree days.

Latest 12z NAM keeps I-75 and points east dry through 8pm Sunday. It tries to sneak in a few showers to areas west of 75 on Friday but if anything falls it shouldn't be a big deal locally IMO. Folks from KC through Chicago and into Michigan still appear to have major flooding concerns on this run.

Mowed yesterday also! 12Z NAM shows very slim chances for us with the best action to our NW and West of our local area. I like that trend and I have no changes with my current thinking thru the weekend and on into next week. The uncertainty for me is towards the 4th of July Holiday weekend. How quick does the front come in and do the tropics slow things down as well are the biggest questions for me that need answering.

Good luck Tim with that call! I could see it happening with your rainfall numbers there easily. For 90 degree days... cloud blow off from storms to our West might make that tough. However, if that doesn't happen, you've absolutely got a shot with that too.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:57 am Latest 12z NAM keeps I-75 and points east dry through 8pm Sunday. It tries to sneak in a few showers to areas west of 75 on Friday but if anything falls it shouldn't be a big deal locally IMO. Folks from KC through Chicago and into Michigan still appear to have major flooding concerns on this run.

Where that rain train sets up... it's def going to be making headlines! I'm concerned for my relatives near the STL area with this set up and my family in S Mich as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:59 am
Where that rain train sets up... it's def going to be making headlines! I'm concerned for my relatives near the STL area with this set up and my family in S Mich as well.

Hopefully it stays to the north of STL which the NAM suggests, but S Mich looks like they are in the bullseye.

12Z GFS thru 84 hours, if you compare it to the NAM has the heaviest totals from NC MO (North of STL) thru Central ILL and Northern IN. Places like STL and S Mich still are in a 2-4" band of rain. Better then 6-10" though which I believe we are going to see in a band across the Midwest.

For us locally, same story line. Low chances... highest West, lowest East thru this weekend with slowly increasing chances as we progress thru next week. That call looks pretty solid to me at this point.

We are already seeing some cirrus blow off from the t-storms over ILL. That's going to be a common theme for the next several days. We may need to knock a couple degrees off of highs as a result.

12Z Euro only has spotty action for CVG Land until Thurs and Fri of next week when likely POPS are needed. The model actually clears some of the area with the front for a dry Holiday Weekend. On Sat 7/3 with the Euro's solution our NE Forecast area would have the best shot for showers.

With the Euro's solution, Tim would have a great chance with his 2 90 degree day calls (which would be this weekend most likely) and his rainfall call would still have a chance with likely action scheduled for Thurs and Fri of next week. As usual, we'll see how things go.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:38 pm Been awol the past few days. I have stayed dry all week. Can't believe it. The lawns are starting to show signs of going dormant and browning up. Which model has been the closet to what has happened so far this spring and now just starting summer. If this was the end of July I would be fine as I am taking a week off then for vacation.

Check out the past 7 day QPF % of normal map....you can definitely see the haves and have nots. Wow!



precip_7d_accum_per_ohio_2021062312.png

Wow. Thanks for posting that.

83 for my high today so far, same at CVG thanks to the clouds.

Just a precursor of things to come for folks to our West and NW. This report was from earlier today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:59 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:57 am Latest 12z NAM keeps I-75 and points east dry through 8pm Sunday. It tries to sneak in a few showers to areas west of 75 on Friday but if anything falls it shouldn't be a big deal locally IMO. Folks from KC through Chicago and into Michigan still appear to have major flooding concerns on this run.

Where that rain train sets up... it's def going to be making headlines! I'm concerned for my relatives near the STL area with this set up and my family in S Mich as well.

I have some cousins in O'Fallon, MO near St Louis and an aunt and cousin in Baldwin, MI near the Lake Michigan shore.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:51 pm 12Z Euro only has spotty action for CVG Land until Thurs and Fri of next week when likely POPS are needed. The model actually clears some of the area with the front for a dry Holiday Weekend. On Sat 7/3 with the Euro's solution our NE Forecast area would have the best shot for showers.

That would should bode well, if the case, for holiday celebrations / fireworks and sports including boat racing on the Ohio River near Madison, IN on July 3rd and 4th.

Day 2 Friday ...