February 2025 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Next 15 day temp anomalies at 5 day intervals. Not to far from normal with a few cool downs mixed in.

IMG_3264.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning all! I picked up 0.04" here and 0.03" at the Boone co. Mesonet. Tranquil weather other then the rain tomorrow evening, can be expected into early next week. We cool down Sunday but warm right back up for possible strong storms next week. That kicks off March then we'll see if we can get that cool shot for one last snow event.

[tron777]

A pretty day in progress for today though! We are in the 40s now and could hit 60 today with sunshine and lighter wind. I am going to try and get the grill out this evening after work and grill some deer burgers for dinner. Should be some nice weather for that.

[tron777]

CVG has skyrocketed to 50 now! Wow... An early Ferris Bueller like day.

[House of Cards]

A pretty day in progress for today though! We are in the 40s now and could hit 60 today with sunshine and lighter wind. I am going to try and get the grill out this evening after work and grill some deer burgers for dinner. Should be some nice weather for that.

sounds delicious! I'll try and think of that while I and the wife are nearly having our weekly heart attacks at the YMCA Boot Camp!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes a nice mild day in store. As we head into March hopefully a nice dose of rainfall but not enough to cause major flooding. Almost every March we have the isolated flooding in the normal areas but hopefully that is limited. March can bring some major storms plus we usually have a couple of upper lows that seem to come out of nowhere and bring a smaller area of heavy snow. Does this happen every March and no but it happens quite often. Those are hard to predict weeks or even days in advance and you need to be in the prime spot and sometimes its not how far north you are but need to be in the center of the cold pocket of air.

Looking at the tellies to see if we can get anything from that and sure always something we can try and figure. The mjo looks to remain in the COD it seems for much of March so that one is not giving us much to go on. The AO early on is positive so that would seem to keep us at least somewhat milder though we still have plenty of cold in Canada. The NAO looks to go negative and besides early in January that has been positive. This should lead to storms slowing up and yes chances of getting stronger. Does that mean winter weather for us and maybe but with the AO mainly positive the winter weather would most likely be to the north. The PNA is looking to maybe go negative and that has not happened all winter though it looks to be weak and probably closer to normal so nothing there unless it becomes strongly negative and the southeast ridge is further west.

What we want to see in March is for the gulf states to get their share of rainfall because once we get into April and May it can get quite hot in those areas especially if there was a small amount of rain in March. For us a normal amount of rainfall would be nice and then in April and May love to see normal or above normal amounts of rain spread out over time. Getting one storm of 3 inches and then very little the remaining time is not helpful in the longer term and chances of flooding go up.

So really what I can see in the long term for March is rather normal with a few chances of winter weather but the chances are not high but that is usually the case and it does look like rain chances are nice as well. Temps may be slightly above normal for the month but not going quite as high that some of the models show.

[tron777]

A pretty day in progress for today though! We are in the 40s now and could hit 60 today with sunshine and lighter wind. I am going to try and get the grill out this evening after work and grill some deer burgers for dinner. Should be some nice weather for that.

sounds delicious! I'll try and think of that while I and the wife are nearly having our weekly heart attacks at the YMCA Boot Camp!

[tron777]

Good Morning and yes a nice mild day in store. As we head into March hopefully a nice dose of rainfall but not enough to cause major flooding. Almost every March we have the isolated flooding in the normal areas but hopefully that is limited. March can bring some major storms plus we usually have a couple of upper lows that seem to come out of nowhere and bring a smaller area of heavy snow. Does this happen every March and no but it happens quite often. Those are hard to predict weeks or even days in advance and you need to be in the prime spot and sometimes its not how far north you are but need to be in the center of the cold pocket of air.

Looking at the tellies to see if we can get anything from that and sure always something we can try and figure. The mjo looks to remain in the COD it seems for much of March so that one is not giving us much to go on. The AO early on is positive so that would seem to keep us at least somewhat milder though we still have plenty of cold in Canada. The NAO looks to go negative and besides early in January that has been positive. This should lead to storms slowing up and yes chances of getting stronger. Does that mean winter weather for us and maybe but with the AO mainly positive the winter weather would most likely be to the north. The PNA is looking to maybe go negative and that has not happened all winter though it looks to be weak and probably closer to normal so nothing there unless it becomes strongly negative and the southeast ridge is further west.

What we want to see in March is for the gulf states to get their share of rainfall because once we get into April and May it can get quite hot in those areas especially if there was a small amount of rain in March. For us a normal amount of rainfall would be nice and then in April and May love to see normal or above normal amounts of rain spread out over time. Getting one storm of 3 inches and then very little the remaining time is not helpful in the longer term and chances of flooding go up.

So really what I can see in the long term for March is rather normal with a few chances of winter weather but the chances are not high but that is usually the case and it does look like rain chances are nice as well. Temps may be slightly above normal for the month but not going quite as high that some of the models show.

Almost time to sow some grass seed and spread some dirt as soon as the ground thaws. Thinking around mid March once this last cold spell occurs then I'll be ready to get er 'done. I think we are looking warm mid to late March with above normal rainfall.

[tron777]

57 now, wow!

[Bgoney]

Snow pack to our northwest , even in southern Canada will be gone by next week

IMG_3267.jpeg

[tron777]

I think spring is coming other then the slight set back towards the end of next week / next weekend. I think the cold shots become less after mid month.

[MVWxObserver]

I think spring is coming other then the slight set back towards the end of next week / next weekend. I think the cold shots become less after mid month.

I'm not sure what anomalies / models / ensembles e.g. etc. that Tim e.g. has been observing showing more than one more chance of a wintry system for March.

[tpweather]

I think spring is coming other then the slight set back towards the end of next week / next weekend. I think the cold shots become less after mid month.

I'm not sure what anomalies / models / ensembles e.g. etc. that Tim e.g. has been observing showing more than one more chance of a wintry system for March.

Hey Eric, hope all is well. No models needed of course and they will catch on normally later than sooner. I believe we have 2 chances and could even be a third chance if one of those upper systems ends up in our backyard. Sure we get some milder weather and that is almost always the case in March but from what I am seeing its not going to be quite as warm as the models show. Does this mean big snows and chances are always slim for them even in mid-winter but getting winter weather is still very possible. Just taking a guess on how temps play out and I would probably go about 2 degrees above normal and again nothing like some of the models showed and precip probably inch above normal which is nothing major.

Must remember in later Dec some models had us with a very toasty January and even that close they failed big time so you can see why I do agree with the models when I see the correct pattern but that late Dec forecast was exactly 180 degrees of what happened always makes me check many times on how things are playing out.

Saying that in November I thought by mid-Feb spring would have start early and I was wrong on that issue but at least that was 2 months away and not 2 days like the models.

[tron777]

I like the March 6-10th window. Timing may have to be adjusted of course. I think it is rain and / or s-storms for the first system next week then wintry chances I hope kick in by next weekend. Euro targets the TN Valley and keeps us cold and dry,

[tron777]

63 now at CVG... damn! We are overachieving today!

[MVWxObserver]

I think spring is coming other then the slight set back towards the end of next week / next weekend. I think the cold shots become less after mid month.

I'm not sure what anomalies / models / ensembles e.g. etc. that Tim e.g. has been observing showing more than one more chance of a wintry system for March.

Hey Eric, hope all is well. No models needed of course and they will catch on normally later than sooner. I believe we have 2 chances and could even be a third chance if one of those upper systems ends up in our backyard. Sure we get some milder weather and that is almost always the case in March but from what I am seeing its not going to be quite as warm as the models show. Does this mean big snows and chances are always slim for them even in mid-winter but getting winter weather is still very possible. Just taking a guess on how temps play out and I would probably go about 2 degrees above normal and again nothing like some of the models showed and precip probably inch above normal which is nothing major.

Must remember in later Dec some models had us with a very toasty January and even that close they failed big time so you can see why I do agree with the models when I see the correct pattern but that late Dec forecast was exactly 180 degrees of what happened always makes me check many times on how things are playing out.

Saying that in November I thought by mid-Feb spring would have start early and I was wrong on that issue but at least that was 2 months away and not 2 days like the models.

Thank you very much Tim. Looks like a typical March transitional pattern of roller coasting in essence re temps and precip types.

My folks and I are hanging in there health wise, Dad will be having a specialized MRI on Tues March 4th at a hospital in Indianapolis for his brain as he's been having periodic episodes of where he feels like his vision has like a "spinning" sensation of so many seconds of dizziness. They have been getting more frequent of late. Mom and I will be going with him for the appt. Its not exactly like Vertigo but at the end of the episodes he feels some nausea but doesn't throw up.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 64, DAY 58 and CMH 60 today.

[tron777]

Good morning and we get hit 65 plus today ahead of our next rain maker for tonight and Thursday. Otherwise mild temps continue except for this weekend. Keeping temps in the 30s for highs on Sunday to close out Feb.

[tron777]

[tron777]

[tron777]

Almost at 60 (59 per the 12pm reading at CVG), so we are running a bit ahead of yesterday at this time. Per visible satellite, clouds are lurking near by to our north, so we'll see how long it takes those clouds to increase as that will put a limit as to how warm we'll get today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

64 now as of 1pm at CVG.

[tron777]

67 as of 2pm...

[tron777]

Clouds have increased now and temps have dropped to 65 as a result. Rain won't be too far away. 67 maybe 68 tops was all we could do. If we had remained full sun, 70 would have been reachable.