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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:32 pm
by tpweather
No doubt a big fight Sunday evening and not talking about the football game. The warm layer fighting with that northeast wind. Wait until morning for my final forecast . Loved the runs tonight and nothing to change my mind. Heading to bed as this old man is getting sleepy or course got up at 3am this morning.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:35 pm
by tron777
Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:39 pm
by dce
18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:39 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:35 pm
Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.
Les I have it snowing until about 5 or 6 pm Monday. The snow on Monday should have a better ratio as colder air works in as well.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:41 pm
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:39 pm
18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.
Doug somebody is going to get hit hard and over a foot. Wish I knew the exact location but with a slow moving mainly west to east track of the low and plenty of moisture to work with.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:43 pm
by tron777
0Z NAM Text data...
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 1P 05-JAN -4.2 -2.6 1024 86 95 0.08 559 540
SUN 7P 05-JAN -4.3 -2.5 1019 92 98 0.59 559 544
MON 1A 06-JAN -4.4 -1.5 1013 92 97 0.99 555 545
MON 7A 06-JAN -4.6 -2.1 1009 89 82 0.32 546 539
MON 1P 06-JAN -3.2 -6.1 1007 88 95 0.04 538 532
MON 7P 06-JAN -3.2 -11.2 1014 87 27 0.11 538 527
HAO
SUN 1P 05-JAN -3.9 -4.0 1024 73 95 0.01 558 539
SUN 7P 05-JAN -4.2 -3.3 1020 93 97 0.24 558 542
MON 1A 06-JAN -5.0 -2.3 1014 93 96 0.99 554 543
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.4 -3.8 1010 91 96 0.44 546 538
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.6 -6.6 1008 86 84 0.04 539 533
MON 7P 06-JAN -3.6 -12.1 1015 87 19 0.04 538 527
MGY
SUN 7P 05-JAN -4.6 -4.0 1021 91 96 0.07 557 541
MON 1A 06-JAN -5.7 -2.9 1015 92 96 0.90 554 542
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.8 -4.8 1011 91 96 0.52 546 537
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.6 -6.6 1008 87 90 0.07 539 533
MON 7P 06-JAN -3.8 -12.5 1014 88 29 0.04 538 526
DAY
SUN 7P 05-JAN -3.8 -4.7 1020 62 95 0.01 556 540
MON 1A 06-JAN -5.9 -4.0 1016 91 97 0.63 553 541
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.9 -5.3 1012 91 94 0.44 546 537
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.5 -7.0 1008 84 85 0.11 540 533
MON 7P 06-JAN -4.2 -12.8 1015 86 36 0.02 538 526
CMH
MON 1A 06-JAN -5.8 -4.7 1017 92 95 0.37 554 540
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.9 -5.3 1012 91 95 0.56 546 537
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.5 -6.2 1008 82 77 0.15 541 534
FGX - Big ice here :(
SUN 1P 05-JAN -4.6 -2.2 1025 92 94 0.11 560 541 Snow
SUN 7P 05-JAN -3.3 -2.5 1020 90 98 0.70 560 544 Snow to SLEET
MON 1A 06-JAN -2.8 0.5 1013 94 98 0.65 557 547 Sleet to FRZ RAIN
MON 7A 06-JAN -2.2 0.3 1007 94 98 0.54 548 542 FRZ RAIN
MON 1P 06-JAN -3.8 -1.8 1006 91 89 0.09 539 535 Back over to Snow
MON 7P 06-JAN -2.6 -10.2 1011 94 90 0.25 537 528 Snow
TUE 1A 07-JAN -5.7 -7.8 1019 87 14 0.03 541 527 Snow
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:43 pm
by fyrfyter
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:30 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 pm
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:13 pm
What is the Middletown/Centerville area looking like at this point? If it goes south, will that impact us as well, or just the Columbus folks? I have COVID right now, and I’m really hoping I won’t have to go back to work (I teach) until Tuesday, so I can have an extra day to recover without having to take time off. Thanks in advance!
Thanks!
Prayers that you'll feel much better soon, Casie.
My folks and I had Covid at Christmas 2021 and Christmas 2023.
Currently 21 here in G'ville and progged for around 14 Sat morning.
Thank you. Right now, I feel terrible. Can’t get much worse. I’m a kidney transplant recipient, so I’m immunosuppressed, and I get hit hard with these things. Doc called in Paxlovid, so hoping I feel better soon.
Here’s hoping for enough snow to call off Monday (and maybe even Tuesday!)..
I’m hoping the Paxlovid has you good in about two days, minus the persistent bitter taste it causes- somewhere between a metal spoon and a rubber band.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:43 pm
by dce
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:41 pm
dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:39 pm
18.3 inches for Dayton on the 3k Nam. 19.9 on the 12k Nam! I wish I could believe this.
Doug somebody is going to get hit hard and over a foot. Wish I knew the exact location but with a slow moving mainly west to east track of the low and plenty of moisture to work with.
You look to be correct! I would venture to say it will be south of Dayton, but who knows? This model has injested the new 7pm data. We will know more over the next 3 hours as the rest of the 00z suite comes in.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:44 pm
by Phr0z3n
Hmmmm . It’s a very weird looking storm imo. It almost doesn’t look right, but on the bright side I like the track of the 850 low on the hi res nam.
IMG_1246.png
If that can keep south of my position that could possibly be some good lake effect.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
by tron777
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:48 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
Don’t bite it’s the nam
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:49 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:35 pm
Backend snows are pretty lame though so we are getting the faster transfer. So Sun afternoon, Sunday night thru Mon morning looks to be the worst of it vs thru Mon evening should this trend be correct. GFS and Euro should be helpful here too in that regard.
Les I have it snowing until about 5 or 6 pm Monday. The snow on Monday should have a better ratio as colder air works in as well.
I could see a fluffy 2-4"on Monday if we get the right duration. You keep the upper low intact it maybe more! But man, Sun afternoon thru 7am Mon is pound town and if the NAM is right esp for folks N of the River. I won't bitch about my 10" of snow mixed in with a few inches of cement once it freezes! Going to be heavier then hell to move. Glad I have the plow this year!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:50 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:53 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:50 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures
As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:54 pm
by tron777
RGEM is coming up...
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:55 pm
by fyrfyter
Good lawd that’s a lot of snow!
IMG_0921.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
by Phr0z3n
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
by tron777
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.
EDIT: Yeah it has to be, check it out! Freaking awesome! The 500 MB low remains closed and doesn't open up until the S Apps where it quickly dies.
NAMMY at 500 Baby.gif
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:58 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.
It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:59 pm
by Phr0z3n
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:58 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.
It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.
All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:00 pm
by Pete1
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:53 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:50 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures
As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!
Jan 1996 might very well be my most memorable storm. Forecast was 1-3 inches then 3-6 then 6-10 then 10-12 inches. All as the storm was in progress.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:02 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:59 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:58 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.
It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.
All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner
That was the Jan of 96 storm. We had that block and it kept the upper low spinning over SKY for hours and hours and hours.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:02 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:00 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:53 pm
Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:50 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:47 pm
20" for the N Cincy Burbs on the kuchera snow map! Come on. No way! That is historic. Record breaking like CMH in March of 2008.
This reminds me of the pre Christmas monster of 2004. We got buried with snow ice sleet then came the arctic temperatures
As far as amounts go, Jan of 1994 also hits home. Can't go with Jan of 96 unless the upper low remains intact a heck of a lot more. That s what made that one so special and such a memorable bust!
Jan 1996 might very well be my most memorable storm. Forecast was 1-3 inches then 3-6 then 6-10 then 10-12 inches. All as the storm was in progress.
Models did not see the block and missed the slow coastal transfer and I mean slow!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:05 pm
by Phr0z3n
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:59 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:58 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 9:56 pm
I see it now Thanks for mentioning it Tron. The 500 low, 700 low and 850 low almost become stacked so the storm is strengthening until the transfer happens in western Kentucky to a coastal inner low? Very weird
Must be the reason for such heavy amounts of QPF / snow.
It is definitely. I think the upper level trough grabs the energy and neg-tilts before the transfer.
All that really is missing is an Atlantic block to keep it from going out to sea. You have a nice 50/50 Low. It’s be a nice transfer to an apps runner
The structure of the trough is off too for a nor’easter. It would have had to neg-tilt somewhere near the Mississippi.
