January 2025 Wx Discussion

[tron777]

BG's blog video is currently ongoing right now on YouTube.

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

Nothing like having the baroclinic zone in the GOM

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 0 both here in G'ville and in DAY. For here progged to top out at around 9.

[tron777]

5 at CVG per the 11am reading. Watching the 12Z GFS coming in to see if we get any interesting for the upcoming weekend.

[tpweather]

5 at CVG per the 11am reading. Watching the 12Z GFS coming in to see if we get any interesting for the upcoming weekend.

Les should be fun to watch as should have some sort of overrunning event headed this way next weekend. What form is still in the works and again we will no doubt be close to the rain/snow line and hopefully no frz/rain but that is always a possibility with this setup

[tron777]

The GFS is coming in colder for this weekend on into next week but the QPF is a bit lower as a result. Plenty of time to see what happens to see if we can score any overrunning wintry precip.

[airwolf76]

a little disappointed with the storm. ended up with 5" . very light and fluffy. was an easy cleanup.

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

CVG finally made it to zero this morning. Wednesday morning we should get below zero before the warm up begins. Maybe a few flurries overnight and another clipper on Thursday but nothing seems big by any means. Then with the warm up do we see an overriding event and we wait and see this weekend. Will this be the change to the overall pattern and not sure yet and one way is watching systems that may come into the west coast. Once I see these happening then usually that spells a milder period for the eastern USA. Just to early to say for sure but I still believe a milder February is in store for us locally

[tron777]

CVG finally made it to zero this morning. Wednesday morning we should get below zero before the warm up begins. Maybe a few flurries overnight and another clipper on Thursday but nothing seems big by any means. Then with the warm up do we see an overriding event and we wait and see this weekend. Will this be the change to the overall pattern and not sure yet and one way is watching systems that may come into the west coast. Once I see these happening then usually that spells a milder period for the eastern USA. Just to early to say for sure but I still believe a milder February is in store for us locally

I certainly agree on a warmer and more active pattern. However, as I discussed this morning with Bgoney, I am watching the MJO closely and I currently do not see a torch for February. As usual, we'll see!

[tron777]

14 here for today. CVG topped out at 13. Look for some clouds and even some flurries later on tonight and tomorrow. A bit warmer for temps as a result of the clouds. Then we clear out and tank Wed night. I still believe below zero for most everyone (minus city centers) as the winds should relax too. Then we moderate beginning Thurs and we'll see what happens with regards to any this weekend or next week wintry mischief.

[tron777]

18Z GFS coming in very interesting for the Sun / Mon time period.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 12Z 26-JAN  -0.2    -4.4    1026      98      96    0.01     558     537    
SUN 18Z 26-JAN   0.6    -3.6    1024      98      95    0.07     557     539    
MON 00Z 27-JAN   0.0    -2.3    1021      99      97    0.10     556     539    
MON 06Z 27-JAN  -0.1    -2.2    1018     100      98    0.10     554     539    
MON 12Z 27-JAN  -2.4    -4.9    1019      97      99    0.25     550     535    
MON 18Z 27-JAN  -1.2    -8.1    1020      88      86    0.02     546     530    
TUE 00Z 28-JAN  -6.0    -8.3    1021      94      13    0.02     544     527 

[tron777]

18Z GEFS Members range from an I-70 Special to a Cincy Tri-state special to a swing and a miss to nothing at all. Just what we should be seeing at this range.

[tron777]

Euro and CMC has a version of the system too. GFS right now is best case scenario for Cincinnati.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and I do find it funny the CVG only reported a trace of snow on the ground yesterday. I still have some areas with 4 inches though some bare spots. Not sure where they take the measurement and if somebody has the answer I would love to find out. Les your thoughts look good and I was just too fast on the return of moisture.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 13, DAY 9 and CMH 11 today.

Currently 3 here in G'ville and progged for around 1 on Tues morning.

[airwolf76]

NWS going for above avg temps for the month of February. be weary though because back in Dec their Jan outlook was above avg also and we all know Jan will not go down as above normal for the month

[tron777]

Good morning folks! 5 at CVG per the 4am reading.5 degrees currently MBY. A few flurries today and maybe again Thurs afternoon. Not a big deal with either "event." Still watching how cold we can Wed morning, along with the warming trend and any overrunning precip we can muster come Sunday. 0Z GFS has come in much further north and now it's an I-70 Special. The foreign models keep holding too much energy back over the SW (A Euro model bias) so they aren't showing much going on or if something does, it's way way south. As usual, we watch and wait!

[tron777]

NWS going for above avg temps for the month of February. be weary though because back in Dec their Jan outlook was above avg also and we all know Jan will not go down as above normal for the month

Good morning Charles. We've been discussing that on here. Watching the MJO closely. I am going milder for Feb but I still do not think it's a torch. 30s and 40s (which is seasonal) versus the bitter cold we saw in January. The storm track will come north and more moisture will be in play as a result. Probably some snow to rain... or rain to snow type systems for the OV. That is typically what we'd get with a set up like that. But you never know. If the cold wins out a time or two, it would make the month. You don't need bitter cold to snow.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

I don't ever recall seeing a blizzard warning issued for areas that far to the south. Wow! Local forecasters are expecting 4-8"+ in some areas. Pretty crazy!

[Bgoney]

Currently 4 here

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[tpweather]

I don't ever recall seeing a blizzard warning issued for areas that far to the south. Wow! Local forecasters are expecting 4-8"+ in some areas. Pretty crazy!

I don't remember that as well. Even with the severe winters of the late 70's I don't recall a blizzard warning ever issued in that area. My son has a morning temp of -20 and wind chill of -40. He got lucky last year with temps and snow but this year he has the cold though they are behind in snow cover but I expect that to pick up big time for them come February.

[tpweather]

Will be interesting as well with the ports in southeast Texas and Louisiana how this may delay some goods for a few days.