tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 10:59 am
Watch the dewpoints too guys. We're in the 40s here while dews in the mid 60s are over Western KY. U60s to even low 70 dews in Western TN. Can we get into any of that juicer air or will our storms fall apart as a result of us NOT being in that juicier air? We shall have to wait and see!
Great Post Les and really the dew points that lowered yesterday quickly was key and as Brian mentioned as well as folks on here that could have been a big tornado outbreak locally. Not sure how high we go with the dewpoint and with the system moving rather quickly we may never get above the mid 50's late this evening. If the dewpoints stay low the chances of strong or severe storms goes way down but if we can just get that uptick for a couple of hours where it jumps 10 degrees that sudden increase can be just enough to throw in a strong or severe storm.
Again not a big outbreak for us locally and again may just be heavy rain but its not 100p/c clear that we don't see a storm or two. Really not much has changed over the past 24 hours and we are just on the eastern edge. Can a storm develop ahead of the main system and sure but with the dewpoint still low those chances are much lower as well.
Still I expect about 0.25-0.50 for most folks but if you happen to get under a stronger thundershower we know this can up those totals quickly like it did here yesterday in my neighborhood. Localized flooding low end but not zero and mainly the creeks that are already high and of course some pounding of water on streets for a short period.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY...
Due to recent severe weather across our area, the National Weather
Service will conduct a storm damage survey today, Thursday, April
18th. The following areas will be surveyed...
Far southeast Delaware County, Ohio, near Fancher Road. Depending
on the observed damage, this may continue into far western
Licking County, Ohio, toward the Johnstown area.
If you have observed any weather-related damage, please report it
to the National Weather Service via severe weather reporting
methods or by calling 937-383-0031.
The storm survey will be transmitted by late this evening via our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 10:59 am
Watch the dewpoints too guys. We're in the 40s here while dews in the mid 60s are over Western KY. U60s to even low 70 dews in Western TN. Can we get into any of that juicer air or will our storms fall apart as a result of us NOT being in that juicier air? We shall have to wait and see!
Great Post Les and really the dew points that lowered yesterday quickly was key and as Brian mentioned as well as folks on here that could have been a big tornado outbreak locally. Not sure how high we go with the dewpoint and with the system moving rather quickly we may never get above the mid 50's late this evening. If the dewpoints stay low the chances of strong or severe storms goes way down but if we can just get that uptick for a couple of hours where it jumps 10 degrees that sudden increase can be just enough to throw in a strong or severe storm.
Again not a big outbreak for us locally and again may just be heavy rain but its not 100p/c clear that we don't see a storm or two. Really not much has changed over the past 24 hours and we are just on the eastern edge. Can a storm develop ahead of the main system and sure but with the dewpoint still low those chances are much lower as well.
Still I expect about 0.25-0.50 for most folks but if you happen to get under a stronger thundershower we know this can up those totals quickly like it did here yesterday in my neighborhood. Localized flooding low end but not zero and mainly the creeks that are already high and of course some pounding of water on streets for a short period.
We are definitely on the same page Tim! I like that call for rainfall amounts too. Just a wait and see game at this point. Storms should be arriving in the next 12-14 hours.
The latest change from the SPC has the slight risk area nudged a little closer to us but still just outside of our coverage area. All AV Posters are still in the marginal risk category. The main threat for us should a storm be able to maintain its intensity tonight will be strong winds. I still maintain my earlier thoughts. We need juicer dews and some CAPE or it's isn't going to happen. It's just that simple. We should know more this evening.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 1:14 pm
The latest change from the SPC has the slight risk area nudged a little closer to us but still just outside of our coverage area. All AV Posters are still in the marginal risk category. The main threat for us should a storm be able to maintain its intensity tonight will be strong winds. I still maintain my earlier thoughts. We need juicer dews and some CAPE or it's isn't going to happen. It's just that simple. We should know more this evening.
Exactly Les and though dew points did rise a tad late morning it dropped a couple of degrees and this usually happens in the early afternoon. It is a very dry air mass over us and though some heavy rain possible will just need to see if we get that quick rise this evening.
Exactly Tim. Dry air continues to mix down this afternoon. Dew now down to 43 as of 2pm at CVG. SPC has issued a T-storm watch until 8pm CDT for MO and ILL. This includes the St. Louis area.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY...
Due to recent severe weather across our area, the National Weather
Service will conduct a storm damage survey today, Thursday, April
18th. The following areas will be surveyed...
Far southeast Delaware County, Ohio, near Fancher Road. Depending
on the observed damage, this may continue into far western
Licking County, Ohio, toward the Johnstown area.
If you have observed any weather-related damage, please report it
to the National Weather Service via severe weather reporting
methods or by calling 937-383-0031.
The storm survey will be transmitted by late this evening via our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln
Well folks.... it looks like an EF1 tornado did indeed occur.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
956 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FAR SOUTHEAST DELAWARE COUNTY OHIO...
The National Weather Service office in Wilmington, Ohio has
confirmed an EF1 tornado in Delaware County Ohio. Most of the
damage was confined to homes along Fancher Road. Maximum winds
were estimated to be 90 mph. The survey remains ongoing at this
time, with additional details still to come. The survey is in
relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area
on April 17th, 2024.
A final assessment including results of the survey are expected
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information
Statement by later this evening.
The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln
SPC Mesopage currently shows that LCL's are very very high over us, like at 2500! I'd prefer to see it under 1000. Values in the 500-750 range are usually good for severe wx. We need to see that drop significantly or else you won't be able to get the cloud bases to lower to get a storm going. Just a lot of issues going against us for severe wx at this time. However, nothing is expected until after midnight anyway. But again, no changes from me. We'll see a weakening area of rain and storms overnight with the best chance at getting an isolated severe storm west of I-75. That is my call and I'm sticking to it.
Quite a bit of action out to the west and southwest as expected. Do these two areas form one longer line of storms and stay apart. Most models have them merging and one line to head through our area late evening/just after midnight. Still no changes and hopefully a good dose of rain once again.
Finally starting to see those dews rise a bit. 50 is the dew point at CVG as of the 4pm reading. No changes from the boys either. Here is their latest thinking:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
700H wave moving through the larger flow will progress through
the region this evening with its attendant surface low riding up
from the Ozarks region. Congruent with previous thinking, a
decaying MCS will move central Indiana into our CWA sometime
late evening to around midnight. Severe threat looks pretty
limited, given any residual daytime instability being pinched
off earlier in the evening. However, some elevated instability
may still be present and therefore cannot rule out an isolated
strong to severe embedded storm making it into our western CWA.
Should this happen, primary concern would be strong/damaging
wind gusts, but it should also be noted that there will be
/very/ subtle turning in the low levels, resulting in a non-zero
tor threat (but pretty close). As the complex progresses east
through the CWA it continues to weaken with the result that by
the time it hits central Ohio during the early morning hours,
we`ll likely have something closer resembling a broken line of
showers on radar reflectivity.
Overnight low temperatures fall to the low 50s in west central
Ohio and low 60s in southern Ohio.
Good Evening and a wonderful to be outside as I type this inside lol. No doubt storms have formed as expected and we just wait for the arrival near the midnight hour. No reason to change the forecast dews are still low and even in Louisville they are sitting at 57. Sure we will get a little spike but again not sure we get above 55 on the dewpoint chart. Nice weekend though a bit cool and then the next chance of rain is mid-week. I will be heading to Wisconsin next Thursday for a 4 day trip and my guess must back the jeans.
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
2212 4 SE Athensville Macoupin IL 3942 9014 Video of a tornado taken from a business on Palmyra Rd from social media--time estimated from radar. (LSX)
2233 3 NW Byrnes Mill Jefferson MO 3846 9062 EF1 damage to buildings at business along Twin Rivers Road. Tornado Debris Signature (TDS) was observed on radar at this time. Survey is continuing. (LSX)
2238 1 SSW High Ridge Jefferson MO 3846 9054 Storm survey ongoing with EF0 tornado damage near High Ridge along Highway PP and along Hunning Road. This is a continuation of the track from Twin Rivers Road. (LSX)
2252 1 S Pontoon Beach Madison IL 3871 9006 Tree damage with winds up to 80 mph. NWS storm survey continues. (LSX)
2301 1 S Prairietown Madison IL 3895 8992 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 S Prairietown. Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or snapped; Roof blown off. NWS survey team found EF1 damage with max wind. (LSX)
2309 3 SE Kuhn Madison IL 3875 8983 Tree damage (limbs snapped) and minor roof damage (shingles off) along Lower Marine Road. NWS storm survey continues. (LSX)
2314 Marine Madison IL 3879 8978 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from Marine. Trees down ... trees in houses ... and powerlines down. NWS survey team determined the damage was from a EF0 tornado. (LSX)
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Last edited by MVWxObserver on Fri Apr 19, 2024 3:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Good morning all! 0.23" at CVG so far from this system. 0.21" at the Boone Co mesonet site and I have 0.24" here. Most of the rain is done minus our SE counties. Temps are around 60 this morning and will remain steady or rise into the low 60s at best today. The front will kick up the winds out of the NW as well once it passes. 50s and low 60s this weekend with lows in the 40s and U30s can be expected but dry. Monday looks nice in the mid 60s with sunshine before our next front and rain chances arrives by Tues afternoon sand night.
For now, Sun and Mon morning we drop into the U30s. If we have clear skies and light winds, I could see some light frost esp in rural areas and colder valleys. Thurs morning of next week also stands a good chance behind the Tues front. Euro has us getting down to 31.
Long range GFS continues to have cool air threats all the way into the fantasy range around 5/5. There are a couple more frost chances showing up. Hopefully, we are done with that threat after that since Mother's Day would be approaching.
Nothing here overnight, thankfully. Ground is still close to saturation. Need an extended window for the farmers to do their thing over the next few weeks.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Good Morning and 0.24 for a total but a nice slow soaking rain which is good. Les your forecast looks great and over the next few weeks we look to be rather stormy with systems every 3-4 days with a warm up ahead of a front and then a cool down and then rinse and repeat. Much different spring compared to last year as we are getting plenty of rainfall and this looks to continue at least through the end of April. Like Bgoney mentioned we need some dry time so the farmers can start to plant and it does look like some breaks here and there but I have no ideal how many dry days or how dry they need it to be for planting.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:25 am
Good Morning and 0.24 for a total but a nice slow soaking rain which is good. Les your forecast looks great and over the next few weeks we look to be rather stormy with systems every 3-4 days with a warm up ahead of a front and then a cool down and then rinse and repeat. Much different spring compared to last year as we are getting plenty of rainfall and this looks to continue at least through the end of April. Like Bgoney mentioned we need some dry time so the farmers can start to plant and it does look like some breaks here and there but I have no ideal how many dry days or how dry they need it to be for planting.
Morning Tim! I think we remain active for the next 3-4 weeks, Then by mid May, we should begin to see the heat ridge developing across the Southern States. When does it bump more northward as the jet lifts north (like it always does in summer) will be key as to when we begin to see more sustained warmth. This is why I hope we continue to remain active for as long as we possibly can. You know as well as I do, that at some point every year, the faucet gets turned off and the heat gets cranked up. The longer it takes for that to occur the better.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:25 am
Good Morning and 0.24 for a total but a nice slow soaking rain which is good. Les your forecast looks great and over the next few weeks we look to be rather stormy with systems every 3-4 days with a warm up ahead of a front and then a cool down and then rinse and repeat. Much different spring compared to last year as we are getting plenty of rainfall and this looks to continue at least through the end of April. Like Bgoney mentioned we need some dry time so the farmers can start to plant and it does look like some breaks here and there but I have no ideal how many dry days or how dry they need it to be for planting.
Morning Tim! I think we remain active for the next 3-4 weeks, Then by mid May, we should begin to see the heat ridge developing across the Southern States. When does it bump more northward as the jet lifts north (like it always does in summer) will be key as to when we begin to see more sustained warmth. This is why I hope we continue to remain active for as long as we possibly can. You know as well as I do, that at some point every year, the faucet gets turned off and the heat gets cranked up. The longer it takes for that to occur the better.
I agree Les and with plenty of rain in the south and east plus rains over the plains in the last few weeks is good because the more vegetation we have the longer it takes for the heat to take control and any system that comes along has a better shot of staying together if the land below has that vegetation instead of dry ground.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:25 am
Good Morning and 0.24 for a total but a nice slow soaking rain which is good. Les your forecast looks great and over the next few weeks we look to be rather stormy with systems every 3-4 days with a warm up ahead of a front and then a cool down and then rinse and repeat. Much different spring compared to last year as we are getting plenty of rainfall and this looks to continue at least through the end of April. Like Bgoney mentioned we need some dry time so the farmers can start to plant and it does look like some breaks here and there but I have no ideal how many dry days or how dry they need it to be for planting.
Morning Tim! I think we remain active for the next 3-4 weeks, Then by mid May, we should begin to see the heat ridge developing across the Southern States. When does it bump more northward as the jet lifts north (like it always does in summer) will be key as to when we begin to see more sustained warmth. This is why I hope we continue to remain active for as long as we possibly can. You know as well as I do, that at some point every year, the faucet gets turned off and the heat gets cranked up. The longer it takes for that to occur the better.
I agree Les and with plenty of rain in the south and east plus rains over the plains in the last few weeks is good because the more vegetation we have the longer it takes for the heat to take control and any system that comes along has a better shot of staying together if the land below has that vegetation instead of dry ground.
Exactly right Tim! With the transition from El Nino to La Nina, I am expecting a trough to remain along the West Coast, maybe slightly inland this summer with ridging for the Central and Eastern US. I expect a hot summer with below avg precip. I hope 100% that I am wrong about this. But those are my current seasonal thoughts for now.
Les I am not sure about the summer and that is because as we know El Nino's and La Nina's have been acting somewhat different in the past several years. I believe a big part of that is the oceans are so warm basin wide. Sure we get some weather that we see during those episodes but not exact.
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 9:00 am
Les I am not sure about the summer and that is because as we know El Nino's and La Nina's have been acting somewhat different in the past several years. I believe a big part of that is the oceans are so warm basin wide. Sure we get some weather that we see during those episodes but not exact.
I think another reason we get warm is the PDO looks to drop more negatively again which would keep the trough out West with a ridge in the East as I mentioned earlier. This early, it is all speculation and there is certainly room for error.
Looking at the above global SST anomalies, you can see the -PDO signature developing with warm waters off the Japanese Coast and cooler waters to the East of that off the West Coast of North America. As usual, we'll see!
Just a wait and see game at this point. Storms should be arriving in the next 12-14 hours.
But those are my current seasonal thoughts for now.
