Absolute Vorticity

We’ll be breaking our max low record for today at cvg. Previous record 54 , cvg had a low this morning of 55

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:08 pm One thing is for sure.... the radar won't be showing much until after dark. Then it's just a question of when the cap breaks and how much CAPE we have left from the daytime hours. This is definitely a conditional threat with high bust potential IMO. I understand why the SPC upgraded us and it's not a bad idea to raise public awareness since this will be an overnight event when most folks are asleep.

Correct this is an after-dark event.

Visible Sat. shows a decent amount of clouds over us so not sure how much CAPE we will be able to build up this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates and bulk shear are going to be good for severe wx. The degree of instability is my main concern for severe wx once the storms do form later this evening. We'll see as usual I guess.

Even though looking at the satellite it shows clearing in southern Illinois all locations that I checked on were cloudy. This is one area we need to watch over the next several hours as the more clouds hang around the threat is less. Still way to early for knowing how this will look at say 4pm or even 7pm as daylight hours are longer and further west they will have added time for as the sun sets in those areas about an 1 hour later in some areas.

12z HRRR shows potential lines of storms at 1a, 4a, and 6a Wednesday.

Activity will be scattered from the looks of it , with some areas receiving little to no precipitation

NWS LOU has issued a wind advisory for their respective counties for gusts to 40 mph (non t-storm winds) from 4pm this afternoon thru tomorrow afternoon at 4pm.

Interesting how half the time during severe set-ups that for our parts of the OV its a nocturnal period.

Currently 63 here in G'ville and 65 in DAY.

63 / 55 at CVG.

Starting to see clouds break in western Illinois so will this continue to press further east this afternoon. The rainfall earlier today is gone and was a tad further south than some models showed yesterday. Still a wait and see but if southern Illinois and southern Indiana can clear out this afternoon that will help in the development of storms in that region. Locally here low clouds and no doubt keeping temp down quite a bit.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:17 pm Starting to see clouds break in western Illinois so will this continue to press further east this afternoon. The rainfall earlier today is gone and was a tad further south than some models showed yesterday. Still a wait and see but if southern Illinois and southern Indiana can clear out this afternoon that will help in the development of storms in that region. Locally here low clouds and no doubt keeping temp down quite a bit.

That was your 5000th post on our new forum Tim. Congrats!

I agree with you.... the lack of CAPE could play a role in making this event less intense for us. Again, it's a wait and see game but my confidence has never been very high on this event. just my personal opinion which to Mother Nature means nothing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:17 pm Starting to see clouds break in western Illinois so will this continue to press further east this afternoon. The rainfall earlier today is gone and was a tad further south than some models showed yesterday. Still a wait and see but if southern Illinois and southern Indiana can clear out this afternoon that will help in the development of storms in that region. Locally here low clouds and no doubt keeping temp down quite a bit.

That was your 5000th post on our new forum Tim. Congrats!

I agree with you.... the lack of CAPE could play a role in making this event less intense for us. Again, it's a wait and see game but my confidence has never been very high on this event. just my personal opinion which to Mother Nature means nothing.

5000 and that is how many behind you Les lol. I am middle of the road on this and yes I believe a line of storms come through here overnight but how strong is another detail all together. Late February and yes we can get severe weather but not as easy to sustain as it would be in April or May. Temps are struggling at the surface today as the sun is having a real hard time making any headway. Still got plenty of time but getting that colder air at the surface can no doubt hamper any storms heading into this direction overnight.

Again don't want to downplay because all it takes is one storm but dew points only in the mid 50's and even out west in southern Illinois upper 50's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:17 pm Starting to see clouds break in western Illinois so will this continue to press further east this afternoon. The rainfall earlier today is gone and was a tad further south than some models showed yesterday. Still a wait and see but if southern Illinois and southern Indiana can clear out this afternoon that will help in the development of storms in that region. Locally here low clouds and no doubt keeping temp down quite a bit.

That was your 5000th post on our new forum Tim. Congrats!

I agree with you.... the lack of CAPE could play a role in making this event less intense for us. Again, it's a wait and see game but my confidence has never been very high on this event. just my personal opinion which to Mother Nature means nothing.

5000 and that is how many behind you Les lol. I am middle of the road on this and yes I believe a line of storms come through here overnight but how strong is another detail all together. Late February and yes we can get severe weather but not as easy to sustain as it would be in April or May. Temps are struggling at the surface today as the sun is having a real hard time making any headway. Still got plenty of time but getting that colder air at the surface can no doubt hamper any storms heading into this direction overnight.

Again don't want to downplay because all it takes is one storm but dew points only in the mid 50's and even out west in southern Illinois upper 50's.

No doubt! I will make my 19,000th post at some point in March most likely. Anyway... I'm not down playing it either, just mentioning some things going on which I feel could hamper the severe threat some as the storms push into our area. I would like dews at least near 60, and I would like CAPE to be at 1000 J/KG, but I think we will fall a tad short on both. Again, wind shear and lapse rates look good for severe storms and we will have some spin or helicity to work with too. Will everything remain elevated or will it be able to work down to the surface where we live is the question. I still believe our NW counties stand the best chance and storms will weaken as they push thru. We'll have to wait and see when storms fire and what the environment looks like over us at that time. It truly is a nowcast with this event. The signals aren't as clear or obvious as they would be later in Spring as you mentioned.

CVG dropped a degree to 62 now. Dew still slowly rising though at 56. No way we make the upper 60s today. High so far is 64.

18Z HRRR shows a few scattered super cells over SE IN this evening working into Cincy and points NE from there. For NKY, we don't see much until 11 or midnight with that line that models have shown all day long now. Then we still may see one more line in a weakened state with the cold front around 3 or 4am.

FOLKS.... please use the new storm thread for this event. Thanks!

viewtopic.php?p=42443#p42443

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:17 pm Starting to see clouds break in western Illinois so will this continue to press further east this afternoon. The rainfall earlier today is gone and was a tad further south than some models showed yesterday. Still a wait and see but if southern Illinois and southern Indiana can clear out this afternoon that will help in the development of storms in that region. Locally here low clouds and no doubt keeping temp down quite a bit.

Congrats Tim on reaching the 5000th club, bro!

We're both low scale Hurricanes!

CVG got to 66, DAY 65 and CMH 67 today.

Kday and kcmh broke their record highs for today, this morning!!!!!!!

Seemingly endless days of record heat continues. Last 24 hours

After we drop into the 30s today and get down into the low and mid 20s for lows tonight... the last day of Feb will be calm and quiet with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Our February’s of late have more tornado or severe thunderstorm watches or warnings than any watches or warnings associated with winter. Doesn’t matter if we’re in LaNina or ElNino state . Warmest February on record for much of lower 48

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:57 am Our February’s of late have more tornado or severe thunderstorm watches or warnings than any watches or warnings associated with winter. Doesn’t matter if we’re in LaNina or ElNino state . Warmest February on record for much of lower 48

February used to be a nice wintry month too. Now it seems that Feb is the new April lol

Some of the soft maples are in full bloom, some cherries, some forsythia and some honeysuckle just to name a few

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:59 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:57 am Our February’s of late have more tornado or severe thunderstorm watches or warnings than any watches or warnings associated with winter. Doesn’t matter if we’re in LaNina or ElNino state . Warmest February on record for much of lower 48

February used to be a nice wintry month too. Now it seems that Feb is the new April lol

We’re going to average for the monthly mean about the same as March’s.(cvg). With much more daylight and sun angle for March , that boys and girls is quite a feat