Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:27 pm Good Afternoon and what you see is what you get this week. Waves of rain over the next 5 days and maybe mix in a little snow this weekend but nothing major. We are trying to move back into the December pattern but not there yet. That pattern looks to come into play next week and the weather becomes rather tame with temps a few degrees above normal and most of the precip south and east of us like we saw in December. Than do we have another bout with the PV and my guess is yes but expecting a more easterly placement which is more common in February . If and when this happens we would be on the western edge but that will work fine as we would also be in a better spot for precip. Again I would say this weekend or early next week longer term models will start to see the changes in regards to the PV. Waiting to wash the car until we get through this weekend though I have it outside trying to get some of the junk off. Still 1-3 inches looks like a good total for the week and flooding is a concern I am not sure how bad this round will be.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:07 pm Trev I always like to be safe on the low end because with these waves there is the chance somebody misses the heavier amounts each time. I believe the higher side is the way to go but rain totals can be tricky especially if you see training which means somebody exceeds the amount but usually means somebody falls short. My guess if you took an average of the major cities we cover which includes CVG,CMH,DAY,IND,LOU AND LEX the amount would end up somewhere in the 1.75 to 2.00

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:45 pm Next batch of rain for tomorrow morning gathering momentum



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Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:07 pm In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:07 pm In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Shoot it will probably be even longer than that. It is entirely possible that the snow we just had recently was the biggest we will see all winter. It only takes one storm of course, but things aren’t looking super good. Sure we may see some cooler weather second half of Feb but even that’s not set in stone just yet. Not saying winter is over, but the clock is ticking. We only have just over a month of Met Winter left until we hit Met Spring and then chances really begin to decrease.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:50 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 2:07 pm In the heart of winter with models in good agreement the lower 48 , East of the Rockies to Apps , very little to no snow threats(other than near GLs) the next 10 days at least . Even well into southern Canada

Shoot it will probably be even longer than that. It is entirely possible that the snow we just had recently was the biggest we will see all winter. It only takes one storm of course, but things aren’t looking super good. Sure we may see some cooler weather second half of Feb but even that’s not set in stone just yet. Not saying winter is over, but the clock is ticking. We only have just over a month of Met Winter left until we hit Met Spring and then chances really begin to decrease.

Nearly the same 500mb we saw in DEC/JAN, south central Canada or Hudson Bay ridging , that’s not an avenue for arctic air into the lower 48. Dire need of MJO cold phases

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:04 pm I'm just wondering if we can get it to be any uglier outside. What a stretch of depressing weather we are going to be in.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 8:33 am Les. Can you imagine if this storm was all snow!!! Well, it’s fun to dream.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:45 pm 55 here currently and it is my current temp. I'll have to start looking at some models again soon when I get some time to do so. There's a lot of planning to do and things to take care of right now but please be rest assured, I will be back posting my normal ridiculous amount when we get past the funeral and such which is on 2/3. One thing is for sure, I'm done with all of the rain and mud. We're out of the drought now, or will be soon. Let's get some snow going again come February! I'd love to have one nice storm before spring comes!