Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:42 am Good morning all and Happy Friday! Last work day for me until 1/2/24. A nice day today until rain showers move in late into Sat. Then a dry Christmas Eve with 60 degrees. Renewed rain for Christmas Day as well as into Tues of next week. Then, the pattern turns progressively colder and we may see some light snow sometime in the Dec 28-30th time period. We look to turn much colder by NYE and NYD with winter storms TBD in 2024. Stay tuned my friends!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:23 am Good morning Tim! I don't see any big snow or ice storms yet, but as we discussed before, they will not show up in the extended range very well in this set up. If they do, then don't fall for the trap. I do feel as if we could see some light snow around the 28-30th period though. That does keep showing up with a shortwave dropping into the trough from Canada. Maybe another little something around New Year's as well per the Euro and especially CMC. Otherwise, as I keep indicating, it's a low confidence forecast. I think the overall pattern is gaining confidence but where the low confidence resides is what actually happens at the surface.

I still believe that we see ridging in NW Canada and Alaska towards the end of the month and into January. It won't be arctic cold for us obviously, but air cold enough for wintry weather to occur? You betcha! Overall, I still like what I am seeing with regards to the Tellies, MJO phase, and potential SSW or at least a weakening of the PV in the extended range. I do believe it will be a serviceable pattern coming up for snow lovers. For now, we watch and wait and enjoy Christmas with our families.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:28 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:23 am Good morning Tim! I don't see any big snow or ice storms yet, but as we discussed before, they will not show up in the extended range very well in this set up. If they do, then don't fall for the trap. I do feel as if we could see some light snow around the 28-30th period though. That does keep showing up with a shortwave dropping into the trough from Canada. Maybe another little something around New Year's as well per the Euro and especially CMC. Otherwise, as I keep indicating, it's a low confidence forecast. I think the overall pattern is gaining confidence but where the low confidence resides is what actually happens at the surface.

I still believe that we see ridging in NW Canada and Alaska towards the end of the month and into January. It won't be arctic cold for us obviously, but air cold enough for wintry weather to occur? You betcha! Overall, I still like what I am seeing with regards to the Tellies, MJO phase, and potential SSW or at least a weakening of the PV in the extended range. I do believe it will be a serviceable pattern coming up for snow lovers. For now, we watch and wait and enjoy Christmas with our families.

Excellent post Les, plenty of things pointing in the right direction in the long range that should keep us in an extended period of at least normalish temps for the first half of January .

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 10:51 am 12Z GFS keeps most of the light rain tonight and Sat north and west of us and skirts our local area midday to early Sat afternoon. Not much precip at all of this scenario is right. Then on Christmas Day, the timing of the better rainfall comes in by late morning to midday.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 10:51 am 12Z GFS keeps most of the light rain tonight and Sat north and west of us and skirts our local area midday to early Sat afternoon. Not much precip at all of this scenario is right. Then on Christmas Day, the timing of the better rainfall comes in by late morning to midday.

I like qpf totals through Christmas of .25”-.75” for the tri- cities . Similar to other events we’ve had , the better moisture follows the low and leftover moisture out of the GOM is limited into the OV

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:42 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 10:51 am 12Z GFS keeps most of the light rain tonight and Sat north and west of us and skirts our local area midday to early Sat afternoon. Not much precip at all of this scenario is right. Then on Christmas Day, the timing of the better rainfall comes in by late morning to midday.

I like qpf totals through Christmas of .25”-.75” for the tri- cities . Similar to other events we’ve had , the better moisture follows the low and leftover moisture out of the GOM is limited into the OV

I posted a half inch or less the other day so we're on the same page for sure.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 2:05 pm Les the good thing is a storm system in the central plains heading up into Canada and this will no doubt help in bringing down some colder air. Once we get the ridging over the west up into western Canada and eastern Alaska then we can start pulling colder air from different areas plus we may be able to get a cross polar flow early in January

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:00 pm The MJO models are still showing a tour thru the colder phases 8-1-2 late this month and into early January. There is a lot to like folks in the next few weeks once we get past the Christmas time period. Hang in there!!!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:58 pm Good Evening and great post tonight. What we have seen this December is the coldest air in Europe to start then heads to Asia and maybe we are next in line. What has been common though is the STJ that goes around the world and we have seen huge snow storms on the southern edge of these cold outbreaks. My guess that will continue but how far south will the cold air go and this is without a PV split.