January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I'm following the Euro a little more closely because it's been the most consistent with less run to run variability for the Day 5-7 period. So for the 22-23rd system, the 12Z Euro is a bit slower with the timing of this run and a bit stronger too vs the 0Z run. Decent wet snow event Sun night on this run. It lingers into the day on Mon for I-70 Crew. Then for the 25-26th system I am watching near the Day 10 period... It's b it too far NW for us on this run but we have a long way to go with both systems so it's all good. You know the old saying... "You've got to smell the rain to see the snow" and that certainly applies to the upcoming pattern.

[tron777]

Is it just me or have the temperatures the past few days been lower than forecast? I remember yesterday was supposed to be in the low to mid 40s for tailgate and game time upper 30s. High here 39 with 32 at game time.

Also, I read an article about the eruption of the Tonga volcano. It was the tallest plume ever recorded at 35.4 miles high, into the mesoshere. No wonder the sunsets, when we can see them, are still pink

https://www.livescience.com/tonga-erupt ... plume-ever

It's kind of funny because last week we saw a few days where the temps overachieved. It's been going both ways IMO. Models have just not done well period with certain things. The Tonga Volcanic eruption injected a ton of water vapor into the stratosphere too. Its effects are unknown IMO at this time. Fascinating stuff for sure!

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and the rain is on the doorstep. The amounts will be rather light with this system but the mid-week system should have more moisture to work with from the GOM. Still not concerned about flooding and just your normal places that get the flooding in mid-late January. Which model is going to blink in the long term. The gfs is by itself in the long term with the euro/cmc together because they have similar outputs. At this point I believe the more likely outcome is something like the Euro/Cmc has and the reason is the west coast is finally getting a break from the systems coming in and that is what Les has been touting once that backs off then winter weather has a much better shot of returning. There will be some snow on the ground leading up to next weekend with a decent snow in the central plains but again would love to see more ground covered. Storms in mid-winter love to follow near a snow pack and does it take another storm for us to be on the correct side. So yes the pattern change is coming and know we see if its a short term pattern or one that can last 2-3 weeks or longer.

[tron777]

Hey Tim! Light rain started here about 5 mins ago. Just got back from my beer run just in time. We just need a well timed shortwave to go along with that relaxation in the PNA and we can get a storm or two to occur more on the wintry side. That is basically my point today. 12Z EPS is pretty suppressed with the 22-23rd system but looks really good for the 25-26th. I'll take that look this far out. So in short... the Euro family continues to throw us a bone while the other models keep trying to figure out the pattern. I am siding with the Euro not because it shows wintry precip but because it has been consistent with the idea the last few days.

[tron777]

Snapshot of the 12Z EPS centered on 1/27.

EPS.png

[tpweather]

Snapshot of the 12Z EPS centered on 1/27.


EPS.png

Les can you make that happen lol.

[tron777]

Snapshot of the 12Z EPS centered on 1/27.


EPS.png

Les can you make that happen lol.

I'm working on it my friend!

arg-hammer-chasing-nail-animbg-320x200-url.gif

[tron777]

41 / 36 here and 0.12" of rain as of 4:10pm. CVG checks in with 42 / 35 and 0.06" as of 4pm.

[tpweather]

Current temp is 40 dew point 32 and so far 0.14 inches of rainfall

[tron777]

0.25" looks like a nice call for most folks with our current system moving thru the region. Temps will rise after this system passes overnight. Very warm tomorrow. 60 anyone? It is very possible for our high tomorrow.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is still a cutter for this Sunday but it is south of the 12Z run FWIW. Then for the 25-26th system, the model is again further south then the 12Z run. Rain to snow but oh so close to a big snow maker for us. On this run verbatim, the northern stream system needs to speed up just a bit.

[Bgoney]

Great lakes lack of ice update total 6.4%

year1_glsea.png

[tron777]

SnowDepartures.jpg

[tron777]

Rainfall update since the majority of it is E of the Metro. Only some scattered showers remain to the West.

CVG - 0.21"
Me - 0.27"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.23"

[tpweather]

Les up to 0.24 here.

[tpweather]

Looked at the latest gfs and starting to come around to the colder look this weekend and next week.

[tron777]

Looked at the latest gfs and starting to come around to the colder look this weekend and next week.

Yes Sir! We don't know if it's a trend since the 0Z run tonight could flip back the other way, but it's a start! We know that we are mild and wet this week, but despite that, this is still going to be an interesting week of model watching for not only Sun / Mon but I am very interested in the one after that for the 25-26th. Both of these are Gulf Lows so the moisture source isn't the problem. The track and amount of cold air are the issues here especially with the first one. I would gladly take a track thru IND or over us for the first system to get the Apps Runner for the second one.

[airwolf76]

we will see what the overnight runs show

[MVWxObserver]

My gauge picked up .20" for MLK Jr Day.

Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 39 Tues morning.

[tron777]

Good morning! No changes really to the overnight models. OP GFS and CMC are still rain makers for almost all systems while the Euro continues to be colder and further SE with the storm track. We'll see! Until then mild today, turning wet Wed night and Thurs and then we drop back into the 40s for highs, 20s and 30s for lows kind of thing.

[Bgoney]

Latest EPS 500mb and temp battle of Canadian cold air mass bleeding east and SEridge putting up resistance for next week

eps_T2ma_us_fh54-360.gif

eps_z500a_namer_fh54-360.gif

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. We know the gfs has been bad lately but the sub-tropical system off the east coast made the gfs look somewhat better. The problem is the gfs had it coming back to the USA coast and that is not happening. But no doubt it had the stronger storm off the coast compared to the other two models.

The system for Wednesday into early Thursday and going with .5-1.0 for rainfall. There will be some severe storms possible well south of here but not and extreme threat by any means. If they end up with just a healthy amount of thunderstorms to the south that moves west to east this could hurt moisture flow into our area but still believe we can reach the 1/2 inch mark. This will not be known until the storms develop and start to move.

Then we get a break and wait for another system later Sunday and Monday. At the moment it looks like a rain to snow system but again we usually end up with very little snow with these kind of systems. Still a little too early as the Euro has more of a winter look to the system.

The good thing is we are going to see snow to the north and west over the next week and the colder air will have an easier time moving this way. The air next week is colder but more of a seasonal type cold at first and does it become much colder later next week is something we will start to watch over the next few days

Been a very long January Thaw and looks like once again February is the month we really get into the winter mode. Cold is coming and snow is always the crap shoot and we just wait and see how everything shakes out. I don't rely much on those extended snowfall maps and they are too vague and really useless imo.

[tpweather]

Yesterday ended up with 0.25 so a nice little soaking but what I have noticed this morning is the grass is getting green with the milder temps. So far this month we are about 9 degrees above normal with temps and about 20p/c above normal for precip which has been all rain.

[tron777]

I agree Tim.... those extended range snowfall maps like the ones CB posted in his overnight blog are pointless. Rarely do they ever work out correctly. The 23rd system maybe in trouble from a snowfall perspective, but if the EPS is right that Bgoney posted above, the set up should be better for the next one around the 25-26th. The pattern setting up is definitely one that has been modeled well and called for on here. I just hope that the Midwest doesn't benefit the whole time. That's my only concern. What could happen is the 23rd system is a cutter then the next one behind it would have a shot to track further SE for us. Been thinking about that possibility being on the table.

[tron777]