Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Les you talked about the pna spike a few days ago and over the last week I saw where it was heading towards neutral which I believe would help and even a little positive I thought was nice. I did not see the spike until you mentioned it and that is what you need with these bigger storms. The window of everything working out perfect is slim.
Exactly. Great post! If that ridge isn't correct out West then the trough won't dig as much and we'll end up with a much weaker storm. That's just the way it is in this set up. If the ridge holds the way we're seeing it modeled today then a moderate event would be highly likely. Then, if everything works out right, a heavy event.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:08 pmLes you talked about the pna spike a few days ago and over the last week I saw where it was heading towards neutral which I believe would help and even a little positive I thought was nice. I did not see the spike until you mentioned it and that is what you need with these bigger storms. The window of everything working out perfect is slim.
There's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol
Here ya go Tim! 12Z EPS SLP plots. Map is valid for Thurs evening. As you can see, more cutter lows now showing up like the OP Euro and CMC solutions. I'll take that 989 MB Low over SE Ohio for $1000, Alex!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:14 pm Going to look at the ensembles once they are out and see where they stand. We know the operational ones can throw us off sometimes and sure not every member will see the same outcome. The gfs was not a bad run as well and not going to discount it at this time. Matter of fact the gfs and euro may be closer to each other than they have been all week.
Hey Joe. I believe that is the most likely outcome and even with just a few inches of snow on top of ice is bad plus the winds will no doubt be a problem.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pmwinterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pmThere's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol
I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!
I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
What in the heck is the name of that movie, Joe? Ugh... I should know this!winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pmThere's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol
I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!
I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
My Brother and his kids are supposed to be coming here sometime on the 23rd to spend Christmas Eve with us. His wife is a nurse and has to work on Christmas Eve this year. We'll have to wait and see how much travel impact we get from this. Just too early to know. I wouldn't change any plans yet of course, but I would be thinking of a Plan B just in case this thing does get strong. Even something like the 12z GFS would cause a lot of problems.Les my guess is the pna spike was not in the model computation before today. That along with how the cold air is coming in phases instead of one big dump is another factor.
The PNA spike has been there on and off for the last couple of days. A posted the PNA forecast from the CPC the other day, We are finally seeing it show up on more models today which is great! The CPC's PNA forecast for today has it spiking at +1 STD which is about perfect in my opinion for our location.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:41 pmLes my guess is the pna spike was not in the model computation before today. That along with how the cold air is coming in phases instead of one big dump is another factor.
Les, there's a bunch of them movies and I can even recall a Waltons episode. Loltron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:34 pmWhat in the heck is the name of that movie, Joe? Ugh... I should know this!winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pmThere's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol
I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!
I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
If we can get that classic scenario when a low forms in the southeast or just of the coast and then retrogrades northwestward as it comes up the coast like we are seeing on some of the modeling, then wow! That would be classic. We usually do very well in the Ohio Valley when that kind of storm occurs. It doesn't happen very often, but if you look back in history when it does the Ohio Valley usually does well in terms of snowfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:27 pmHere ya go Tim! 12Z EPS SLP plots. Map is valid for Thurs evening. As you can see, more cutter lows now showing up like the OP Euro and CMC solutions. I'll take that 989 MB Low over SE Ohio for $1000, Alex!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:14 pm Going to look at the ensembles once they are out and see where they stand. We know the operational ones can throw us off sometimes and sure not every member will see the same outcome. The gfs was not a bad run as well and not going to discount it at this time. Matter of fact the gfs and euro may be closer to each other than they have been all week.
EPSSLP.png
Probably will start it up over the weekend, just to be safe.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:53 pmLes, there's a bunch of them movies and I can even recall a Waltons episode. Loltron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:34 pmWhat in the heck is the name of that movie, Joe? Ugh... I should know this!winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:24 pmThere's an old Christmas movie in this scenario somewhere where everyone is trying to get to mom and dad's house for Christmas eve and a blizzard hits? Lol
I'm not going to even mention this to any of my friends, family or co-workers as they'll look at me like they always do when I mention that bread and milk will be disappearing from the grocery shelves. That I'm nuts! Ha ha!!
I am beginning to believe that we're in for a HUGE drastic change in the Thursday - Saturday time frame that will involve a flash freeze with rain changing to snow quickly with some snow accumulations and awful wind chills.
Now, may be the time to start the pre-Christmas winter storm thread? Lol
You bring up a good and interesting point Doug. I looked back at some of our big storms and a common theme was the tall PNA ridge centered near the West Coast with a strong northern stream wave that dives all the way down into Texas. Surface low is typically induced near New Orleans / SE TX / LA area. The low slowly rises NE due to the blocking as the energy phases and the upper low deepens and closes off over KY. Surface low slowly moves up the Apps, dies over WV or SE KY or even SE OH area while slowly transferring its energy to an EC Low ala January 1996. Or no EC Low transfer ala March of 2008. Jan 1994 was a bit different. Had the +PNA but the PV phased into the system due to the strongly -AO so that's why we went down to -20s after that one! Same with Dec of 1989 - PV phasing in.dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:55 pmIf we can get that classic scenario when a low forms in the southeast or just of the coast and then retrogrades northwestward as it comes up the coast like we are seeing on some of the modeling, then wow! That would be classic. We usually do very well in the Ohio Valley when that kind of storm occurs. It doesn't happen very often, but if you look back in history when it does the Ohio Valley usually does well in terms of snowfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:27 pmHere ya go Tim! 12Z EPS SLP plots. Map is valid for Thurs evening. As you can see, more cutter lows now showing up like the OP Euro and CMC solutions. I'll take that 989 MB Low over SE Ohio for $1000, Alex!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:14 pm Going to look at the ensembles once they are out and see where they stand. We know the operational ones can throw us off sometimes and sure not every member will see the same outcome. The gfs was not a bad run as well and not going to discount it at this time. Matter of fact the gfs and euro may be closer to each other than they have been all week.
EPSSLP.png
Was thinking of the November 1950 Appalachian storm also. It took a northwest track as it was coming off the Atlantic.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:11 pmYou bring up a good and interesting point Doug. I looked back at some of our big storms and a common theme was the tall PNA ridge centered near the West Coast with a strong northern stream wave that dives all the way down into Texas. Surface low is typically induced near New Orleans / SE TX / LA area. The low slowly rises NE due to the blocking as the energy phases and the upper low deepens and closes off over KY. Surface low slowly moves up the Apps, dies over WV or SE KY or even SE OH area while slowly transferring its energy to an EC Low ala January 1996. Or no EC Low transfer ala March of 2008. Jan 1994 was a bit different. Had the +PNA but the PV phased into the system due to the strongly -AO so that's why we went down to -20s after that one! Same with Dec of 1989 - PV phasing in.dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:55 pmIf we can get that classic scenario when a low forms in the southeast or just of the coast and then retrogrades northwestward as it comes up the coast like we are seeing on some of the modeling, then wow! That would be classic. We usually do very well in the Ohio Valley when that kind of storm occurs. It doesn't happen very often, but if you look back in history when it does the Ohio Valley usually does well in terms of snowfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:27 pmHere ya go Tim! 12Z EPS SLP plots. Map is valid for Thurs evening. As you can see, more cutter lows now showing up like the OP Euro and CMC solutions. I'll take that 989 MB Low over SE Ohio for $1000, Alex!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:14 pm Going to look at the ensembles once they are out and see where they stand. We know the operational ones can throw us off sometimes and sure not every member will see the same outcome. The gfs was not a bad run as well and not going to discount it at this time. Matter of fact the gfs and euro may be closer to each other than they have been all week.
EPSSLP.png
EDIT: I used this site for old model analysis.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/
Gotcha... To pull that one off you not only need a monster low but a monster block over SE Canada and New England so it doesn't turn up the Coast or head out to sea. That's what happened in Nov 1950 that caused the NW Track. Anomalous blocking patterns are tough on the models sometimes, but every once and a while, they can produce big results. We'll see! We all know the players are on the field for a bigger storm. We just don't know if everything will line up right.dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:43 pmWas thinking of the November 1950 Appalachian storm also. It took a northwest track as it was coming off the Atlantic.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:11 pmYou bring up a good and interesting point Doug. I looked back at some of our big storms and a common theme was the tall PNA ridge centered near the West Coast with a strong northern stream wave that dives all the way down into Texas. Surface low is typically induced near New Orleans / SE TX / LA area. The low slowly rises NE due to the blocking as the energy phases and the upper low deepens and closes off over KY. Surface low slowly moves up the Apps, dies over WV or SE KY or even SE OH area while slowly transferring its energy to an EC Low ala January 1996. Or no EC Low transfer ala March of 2008. Jan 1994 was a bit different. Had the +PNA but the PV phased into the system due to the strongly -AO so that's why we went down to -20s after that one! Same with Dec of 1989 - PV phasing in.dce wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:55 pmIf we can get that classic scenario when a low forms in the southeast or just of the coast and then retrogrades northwestward as it comes up the coast like we are seeing on some of the modeling, then wow! That would be classic. We usually do very well in the Ohio Valley when that kind of storm occurs. It doesn't happen very often, but if you look back in history when it does the Ohio Valley usually does well in terms of snowfall.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:27 pmHere ya go Tim! 12Z EPS SLP plots. Map is valid for Thurs evening. As you can see, more cutter lows now showing up like the OP Euro and CMC solutions. I'll take that 989 MB Low over SE Ohio for $1000, Alex!tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:14 pm Going to look at the ensembles once they are out and see where they stand. We know the operational ones can throw us off sometimes and sure not every member will see the same outcome. The gfs was not a bad run as well and not going to discount it at this time. Matter of fact the gfs and euro may be closer to each other than they have been all week.
EPSSLP.png
EDIT: I used this site for old model analysis.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/
Have a great evening, Tim! You both should check out the lights at the Boone Co. fairgrounds out my way.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:59 pm Hope everyone enjoys your evening and going to look at Christmas lights with my lovely wife. Weekend will be filled with tons of football and I am a big Browns fan on Saturday and of course watching the latest model runs to see if we can get a decent storm late next week.
I love checking out Christmas display lights/decorations but doing it from a car looking out the window. Lol It's usually too cold and windy walking around the Zoo's Festival of lights or Winterfest, but you can warm up in the shops, though!tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:03 pmHave a great evening, Tim! You both should check out the lights at the Boone Co. fairgrounds out my way.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:59 pm Hope everyone enjoys your evening and going to look at Christmas lights with my lovely wife. Weekend will be filled with tons of football and I am a big Browns fan on Saturday and of course watching the latest model runs to see if we can get a decent storm late next week.
https://www.lightupthefair.com/
Coney also has an awesome drive thru display (way bigger then the one by me even).
https://coneyislandpark.com/event/holiday-light-show/